Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NU) — the parent company of Nubank — is trading near its 2025 highs heading into year-end, as investors weigh rapid customer growth against questions around regulation, banking licenses, and how much upside is already “in the price.”
As of December 24, 2025, NU shares are hovering around $16.74, down slightly on the session after touching an intraday high near $16.83. The stock remains up sharply in 2025 and is still within striking distance of its $17.84 52-week high, giving it the look of a market darling that’s pausing to breathe rather than reversing course. [1]
What’s new on Dec. 24: bullish fundamentals, bearish options flow
Two fresh signals are shaping the day’s conversation around Nu Holdings stock:
1) A growth-focused research note is back in the spotlight.
A Zacks Equity Research piece published today highlights Nu’s customer momentum and how scale is reshaping its fintech growth profile — essentially reinforcing the core bull thesis: Nubank keeps adding users at a pace that traditional banks struggle to match. [2]
2) Options traders flashed a more cautious tone.
TheFly (syndicated via TipRanks) flagged put volume running heavy versus expectations, with a put/call ratio around 1.60 and implied volatility rising on the day — the kind of “tactical bearishness” traders use to hedge or speculate around near-term swings. [3]
This mix — optimistic long-term growth framing plus short-term hedging — is pretty common for high-multiple growth names late in a strong year.
NU stock snapshot: where shares stand right now
A few quick context points help explain why NU has been so “sticky” near the top of its range:
- Market cap: roughly $80B (ballpark, depending on the data source and time of day). [4]
- 52-week range: about $9.01 to $17.84, meaning the stock is up roughly 86% from its 52-week low and only about 6% below the high. [5]
- Year-to-date performance: multiple trackers put NU’s 2025 gain in the ~50% to ~60%+ zone, reflecting a strong re-rating after a volatile 2024. [6]
The fundamental engine: Q3 results put scale and profitability on display
The biggest “load-bearing” piece of the 2025 bull case remains Nu’s ability to grow users while also producing real profitability.
In its third-quarter 2025 results, Nu posted:
- Net income of about $783 million, beating analyst expectations in Reuters’ report
- Revenue around $4.2 billion, also ahead of forecasts
- Customer base of about 127 million across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia
- Credit portfolio around $30.4 billion, up strongly year over year
- Annualized ROE around 31%, a profitability level that turns heads for a company still often framed as a “growth fintech” [7]
Reuters also noted a modest dip in net interest margin alongside stable-to-improving credit indicators in parts of the book — the kind of detail investors watch closely when a lender is scaling fast. [8]
Forecasts and analyst targets: what Wall Street expects as of Dec. 24
Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, with price targets clustering above the current quote:
- Investing.com’s analyst consensus shows an average target around $19.21, with a high near $22 and a low near $14, alongside a “Buy”-leaning consensus split. [9]
- MarketBeat’s consensus view lists NU as “Moderate Buy” with a price target around $18.04 (close enough to today’s price to imply more “measured” upside unless estimates rise again). [10]
- Yahoo Finance also displays a 1-year target estimate around $19.21, reinforcing that this ~$19 level is a widely-shared “center of gravity” among covering analysts right now. [11]
Today’s key sell-side narrative: growth, margins, and 2026 earnings power
A recent Goldman Sachs note reiterated a Buy rating and a $21 price target, arguing Nu can keep compounding through 2026 via loan growth, improving risk-adjusted margins, and operating leverage. The same roundup also references other banks’ targets and positioning (including more neutral stances), underscoring that “bullish, but not blind” is the dominant tone. [12]
Regulation and licensing: a real catalyst, not just paperwork
Nu’s story isn’t only about customer growth — it’s also about operating inside increasingly formal regulatory frameworks as it starts to resemble a systemically important financial institution in its home markets.
Brazil: moving toward a banking license (and possibly an acquisition)
In early December, Nubank announced its intention to obtain a banking license in Brazil in 2026, citing regulatory provisions that standardize how regulated institutions use brand names. [13]
Separately, Bloomberg reported Nu has explored the idea of acquiring a small licensed bank in Brazil in response to rule changes — a reminder that “fintech” eventually runs into “bank law” when you reach enough scale. [14]
A related macro backdrop: Brazil’s central bank has been tightening and clarifying rules around capital, naming conventions, and oversight — including additional buffers for institutions using “bank” in their name — which can influence strategy across the whole fintech ecosystem. [15]
United States: the national bank charter move
Earlier this fall, Reuters reported Nubank applied for a U.S. national bank charter, framing it as a concrete step toward expanding beyond Latin America and serving customers in the U.S. market over time. [16]
Taken together, these developments help explain why NU is increasingly analyzed like a bank (credit + regulation + capital) while still being valued partly like a software-driven growth platform.
The next major catalyst: Q4 earnings date is on the calendar
Nu’s investor relations events calendar lists Q4’25 earnings results and the conference call on February 25, 2026. That date is likely to be the next “big volatility moment” for NU stock — especially after such a strong 2025 run. [17]
Metrics that typically matter most into the print:
- Customer additions and activity rates (growth quality, not just growth quantity)
- Credit performance and delinquency trends (especially in a higher-rate environment)
- Net interest margin trajectory
- Deposit costs and funding mix in Brazil and Mexico
- Any new color on licensing, compliance timelines, or geographic expansion priorities [18]
The bull case vs. the bear case for Nu Holdings stock
The market’s NU debate in late 2025 can be summarized pretty cleanly:
Bull case: Nu is turning scale into compounding profitability — adding customers, expanding product depth, and delivering bank-like earnings power with fintech-like distribution costs. The Q3 profitability metrics (including ROE) are the numbers bulls point to when they argue NU is still early in a long runway. [19]
Bear case: The higher NU climbs, the less forgiving the market becomes on credit quality, margins, and regulatory execution risk — especially when new rulebooks (Brazil licensing/capital and potential U.S. charter requirements) are part of the growth plan. Even “small” changes in funding costs or loss rates can matter a lot when expectations are elevated. [20]
Bottom line on Dec. 24, 2025
Nu Holdings stock is closing out 2025 as a rare fintech that’s managed to keep both growth and profitability in the same sentence — and in the same quarterly report. Today’s news flow captures that tension: a fundamentals-driven growth narrative remains intact, but options activity shows traders still like hedges at these levels.
With February 25, 2026 now the next major checkpoint, NU’s ability to deliver another quarter of strong execution — while navigating the licensing and regulatory arc — will likely determine whether the stock breaks decisively above its 2025 highs or settles into a more valuation-driven grind.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.zacks.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.macrotrends.net, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. finance.yahoo.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. international.nubank.com.br, 14. www.bloomberg.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investidores.nu, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com
