NEW YORK, March 19, 2026, 4:22 PM EDT
Nu Holdings Ltd climbed 1.3% to $14.15 late Thursday, bucking the broader U.S. market’s slump after UBS shifted the Brazilian digital bank to Buy. The move from the Swiss bank gave Nu Holdings a lift, even as investors weighed new oil-fueled inflation concerns.
The rebound is notable, with shares still off roughly 15% for the year. Despite Nu’s solid fourth-quarter numbers back in February, the stock struggled—investors worried over expenses and the outlook. Thursday’s jump hints at renewed interest now that rate cuts are underway in Brazil.
Brazil’s central bank trimmed the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.75% on Wednesday—a first cut after five meetings stuck in place. The move offers some relief for consumer lenders, potentially spurring credit appetite while easing funding pressures. Still, policymakers bumped up their inflation forecasts as the Middle East oil shock muddied the picture. Felipe Tavares, chief economist at BGC Liquidez, read the statement as a signal for more easing ahead and expects a 50 basis point cut in April.
Thiago Batista at UBS bumped Nu up to Buy from Neutral, upping his price target as well — now $17.60, up from $17.20. The note points out that despite the recent slide sending shares back to about where they sat in 2023, profit has since more than doubled.
UBS highlighted Nu’s quicker pace of loan growth, as the company boosts unused credit-card limits, and flagged stronger numbers out of Mexico. On Thursday, Nu diverged from rivals: StoneCo dropped 0.4% and PagSeguro eased 0.1%, but the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF advanced 0.7%.
Nu, operator of Nubank across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, posted a fourth-quarter net profit of $894.8 million—a 50% jump year-over-year. Revenue for the period reached $4.86 billion, up 45%. CFO Guilherme Lago told Reuters the gains came from a mix of customer growth, higher per-customer revenue, and steady service costs, saying, “This brings positive leverage to revenue.” Reuters
The release didn’t spark much enthusiasm. Shares dropped 5.5% after hours; JPMorgan pointed to a lower tax rate as the main driver behind the earnings beat. Citi flagged higher credit-loss costs and rising operating expenses, saying those factors “mud the picture.” Reuters
The risk hasn’t gone away. Brazil’s central bank bumped its 2026 inflation outlook up to 3.9%, from 3.4%. Leonardo Costa at ASA Investments flagged that another modest 25-basis-point cut could still be on the table for April, should Middle East tensions keep global prices stubborn.
Nu has started clearing regulatory hurdles for its U.S. entry, landing the first of three necessary approvals back in January. Chief Executive David Velez acknowledged the U.S. market’s fierce competition but pointed to potential gains in certain niches, putting this expansion squarely in the spotlight as the next major challenge for the stock.
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