- SPAC Merger Vote Imminent: HCM II (NASDAQ: HOND) shareholders will vote Oct. 20, 2025 on a merger with Terrestrial Energy – a Canadian-US nuclear startup. [1] [2]. If approved, the combined company will list on NASDAQ as “IMSR” (common) and “IMSRW” (warrants) [3], raising about $280 million at a pro forma equity value near $1.3 billion [4] [5].
- Stock Surge: Anticipation of the vote sent HOND shares from the high teens to roughly $25 by mid-October [6]. By Oct. 15, the stock traded near $24.98 [7] (close to a 52-week high) on heavy volume, as traders positioned ahead of the merger vote [8] [9]. If the deal closes, HOND holders become shareholders of Terrestrial’s business (ticker IMSR) [10] [11].
- Advanced Reactor Tech Approved: Terrestrial’s IMSR (Integral Molten Salt Reactor) – a Gen-IV small modular reactor design – just won a major regulatory milestone. The U.S. NRC completed a safety review on Sept. 10, approving Terrestrial’s use of a temperature-based “inherent” control mechanism. It was “the first of its kind… for a molten fuel salt reactor designed for commercial use” [12]. CEO Simon Irish called the approval “a key milestone” that confirms the IMSR’s inherent safety features [13].
- DOE Endorsement: The U.S. Department of Energy also tapped Terrestrial for its Advanced Fuel Pilot program. In late Sept. 2025 DOE announced selections of Oklo, Terrestrial Energy, TRISO-X, and Valar for advanced nuclear fuel line projects [14]. Terrestrial’s project will develop a fuel salt fabrication process, reinforcing confidence in its supply chain strategy [15] [16].
- Industry Momentum & Peers: Investors note that Oklo (another SMR developer) just broke ground on its 75 MW Aurora fast reactor at Idaho National Lab [17], and like Terrestrial was chosen in DOE’s fuel program [18]. Meanwhile, tech giants are increasingly backing SMRs – for example, Amazon has disclosed plans to build 12 X-energy SMRs for data centers in Washington state [19]. This broader trend underpins interest in next-gen nuclear.
- Analyst Sentiment Mixed: Many analysts see upside if the vote clears. Seeking Alpha columnist Sarfatti initiated coverage with a Buy, noting Terrestrial “stands out” among SMR companies thanks to recent regulatory wins and strong leadership [20]. Major funds are also taking positions: JPMorgan added over $550K of HOND in Q2, and hedge funds boosted their stakes [21]. By contrast, Weiss Ratings still pegs HOND as a “Sell” [22], and SPAC skeptics remind investors that if the deal fails, HOND would collapse back toward its $10 trust value.
- Technical Indicators: Chart analysts point out that HOND is now well above its 50-day moving average (~$13.6) [23] [24], with most momentum gauges in bullish territory. Financhill reports that short-term moving averages (8-day, 20-day) remain buy signals [25]. In plain terms, the stock’s uptrend has been strong, suggesting room to run if approval occurs. However, rapid run-ups often see pullbacks: HOND is near a 52-week high and overbought on RSI [26], so traders warn profits could be taken once the vote is decided.
Terrestrial Energy is a Generation-IV nuclear developer known for its IMSR technology [27] [28]. The IMSR is a modular molten-salt reactor that uses low-enriched uranium; it is inherently safe thanks to its fuel salt and temperature control design [29] [30]. Terrestrial has been building regulatory momentum: besides the recent NRC ruling, Canada’s regulator completed a positive Vendor Design Review in 2023, finding “no fundamental barriers to licensing” the IMSR for commercial use [31]. The company plans to build first IMSR plants in the early 2030s and markets them not only for electricity but also high-temperature industrial heat (data centers, chemical plants, etc.) [32] [33].
HCM II’s management emphasizes this vision. CEO Simon Irish says the S-4 clearance is a “key transaction milestone” and touts the IMSR as a “transformative” solution to energy demand, noting its safe, low-cost, carbon-free power [34]. HCM II’s Shawn Matthews similarly called the IMSR “a transformative solution for the world’s growing industrial energy needs, delivering safe, reliable and cost-effective power” [35]. Terrestrial is positioned to capitalize on growing demand: it claims a “capex-light” model and highlights DOE programs that could ensure fuel availability [36] [37].
On the market side, HOND’s soaring price has moved its implied enterprise value toward $1.3 billion [38]. If HOND closes at ~$26 (as some reports indicated on Oct. 17), Terrestrial would trade near a $3.5 billion equity valuation at that price. However, analysts caution this is speculative: Terrestrial has no revenue yet and won’t have any commercial sales or profits likely until the 2030s [39]. Even so, many see the deal as a way for retail investors to get early exposure to advanced nuclear technology.
Forecast & Takeaway: In the days ahead, the key events are the Oct. 20 shareholder vote and any new guidance. A smooth approval is widely expected and would likely send HOND/IMSR shares higher, potentially reaching the low-$30s if momentum continues (some technical analysts project targets around $28–$30). If the deal falters (unlikely at this stage), the stock would retrace sharply toward its $10 redemption price. Longer-term, Terrestrial’s success will depend on deploying its IMSR plants and capturing market share in decarbonization. For now, industry veterans like former NRC Commissioner Jeffrey Merrifield say Terrestrial’s regulatory victories “sets a precedent for others in the field” [40], signaling confidence in molten salt reactors. But as analysts note, advanced nuclear remains a high-risk, high-reward sector – one poised for a boom if projects keep meeting milestones, but still uncertain given capital and licensing challenges.
Sources: Latest filings and press releases [41] [42]; industry news [43] [44]; market data from TechStock² and MarketBeat [45] [46]; expert commentary on SMRs [47] [48].
References
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