NuScale Power (SMR) Stock Forecast: December 2025 Rally Tests Nuclear‑AI Hype Against Dilution Risk

Published: December 4, 2025

NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) is back in the spotlight. After a brutal November sell‑off that sliced the share price in half from its mid‑October peak, the small modular reactor (SMR) developer is rebounding sharply as nuclear power, artificial intelligence (AI) and U.S. energy policy collide.

By early afternoon on December 4, 2025, NuScale shares were trading around $23, up roughly 13% on the day, yet still down more than 40% over the past month and nearly 60% below their 52‑week high of $57.42 set on October 16. ^[1]

At the same time, Washington just announced $800 million in new SMR funding, Nvidia’s CEO publicly blessed nuclear as the future of AI, and Wall Street is fiercely divided on whether NuScale is a once‑in‑a‑generation energy play or a dangerously dilutive cash furnace. ^[2]

Here’s a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 4, 2025, and what it could mean for SMR stock in the months ahead.

1. Where NuScale Power Stock Stands on December 4, 2025

Price (mid‑day 4 Dec 2025): Around $22.8–$23.3, up ~13–15% intraday. ^[3]
52‑week range:$11.08 – $57.42. ^[4]
Recent returns:
- 1‑month: about ‑43%
- 3‑month: about ‑44%
- 1‑year: about ‑19%
- 3‑year: roughly +81% (since its SPAC debut). ^[5]
Market cap: roughly $5.5–6.0 billion, depending on source and intraday price. ^[6]
Volatility: Average daily volume near 39 million shares, with very wide daily trading ranges (roughly $19.5–$23.35 today alone). ^[7]

In simple terms: NuScale is trading like a high‑beta tech stock, not a sleepy utility—massive swings, huge volume, and sentiment that can flip on a single headline.

2. Fresh Catalysts Driving SMR on December 4, 2025

2.1 DOE’s $800 Million SMR Push

On December 2, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced it will provide up to $800 million in cost‑shared funding to advance Gen III+ small modular reactors in the U.S. ^[8]

Key points:

Funding goes to Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Holtec Government Services to advance early SMR deployments in Tennessee and Michigan. ^[9]
The program is designed to get new nuclear capacity online in the early 2030s, with an eye on AI data centers and manufacturing as major demand drivers. ^[10]

NuScale is not one of the funded vendors in this specific DOE announcement; TVA is currently aligned with GE Vernova’s BWRX‑300 design. But for NuScale, the news still matters:

A MarketBeat analysis notes that DOE’s backing of TVA directly strengthens a key NuScale partner, because NuScale’s strategic ally ENTRA1 Energy has a landmark agreement with TVA to deploy up to 6 GW of NuScale SMR capacity. ^[11]
The article argues this validates the commercial market for SMRs and helps “de‑risk” NuScale’s long‑term pipeline, even if the immediate funding flows to a competitor. ^[12]

In other words, DOE is effectively shouting: “The U.S. is actually going to build SMRs now.” For NuScale, a first‑mover with an NRC‑certified design, that’s a powerful tailwind.

2.2 Nvidia’s Jensen Huang: AI Needs “a Whole Bunch of Small Nuclear Reactors”

If DOE is the policy tailwind, AI is the demand tailwind.

In a widely discussed appearance on “The Joe Rogan Experience”, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described AI data centers as “gigawatt factories” that can’t simply plug into the existing grid without creating serious stability issues. His punchline:

The solution is dedicated or off‑grid power generation, and he expects to see “a whole bunch of small nuclear reactors” in the hundreds‑of‑megawatts range powering data centers within six to seven years. ^[13]

A Benzinga piece framing those remarks highlighted NuScale, Oklo and Nano Nuclear as potential beneficiaries. It noted that SMR shares, including NuScale, jumped double digits as investors interpreted Huang’s comments as confirmation that demand for SMRs is a strategic necessity, not a niche fantasy. ^[14]

This matters because NuScale’s own marketing stresses SMRs as 24/7, carbon‑free baseload power for AI data centers, mining, semiconductors and other energy‑intensive industries—exactly the use case Huang described. ^[15]

2.3 Nuclear Stocks Back on Traders’ Screens

On December 4, MarketBeat’s “Nuclear Stocks To Watch Now” list put NuScale (SMR) alongside Oklo, Centrus Energy and others as one of the most heavily traded nuclear names in recent sessions, emphasizing that: ^[16]

These stocks are extremely sensitive to government policy and regulation.
The DOE SMR funding has triggered a fresh wave of “buy signals” across the group. ^[17]

That helps explain why SMR can swing 20–30% in days: it sits at the intersection of policy headlines, AI hype and retail momentum.

2.4 New Institutional Money vs. Heavy Insider Selling

Also today, MarketBeat reported that Trek Financial LLC opened a new position in NuScale, buying 60,892 shares (~$2.41 million) in Q2. Several other funds also added, bringing institutional ownership to about 78% of the float. ^[18]

But that bullish data point is overshadowed by insider activity:

Over the last 90 days, insiders have sold roughly 15 million shares, worth about $605 million, with NuScale’s key partner Fluor Corporation alone unloading 2.37 million shares for over $104 million. ^[19]
Quiver Quantitative notes 61 insider sale transactions and zero insider buys over the past six months, led by Fluor plus smaller sales by NuScale’s CFO and COO. ^[20]

That combination—rising institutional ownership but relentless insider selling—is fueling intense debate on social platforms and trading forums about how confident insiders really are in NuScale’s long‑term path. ^[21]

3. Q3 2025: A “Shocking” Loss That Strengthened the Balance Sheet

NuScale’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on November 6, are the root of much of the recent volatility. ^[22]

3.1 Headline Numbers

From NuScale’s filings and subsequent analyses: ^[23]

Revenue: about $8.2 million, up massively from under $0.5 million a year earlier, driven by engineering work on projects like RoPower’s SMR plant in Romania and Fluor’s front‑end engineering studies.
Consensus revenue estimate: around $11.3 million — so revenue missed expectations despite the growth.
Net loss: roughly $532 million, or ‑$1.85 per share, versus Street expectations of about ‑$0.11 per share.
Cash & investments:$753.8 million at quarter‑end.
Capital raise: NuScale sold 13.2 million shares through its at‑the‑market (ATM) program during Q3, raising about $475.2 million in gross proceeds.

The giant loss number comes mainly from a non‑recurring accounting hit:

NuScale’s own press release explains that general and administrative (G&A) expenses jumped by about $502 million year‑over‑year, largely due to recognizing $495 million tied to “Milestone Contribution 1” under its Partnership Milestones Agreement with ENTRA1 Energy, its global strategic partner. ^[24]

MarketBeat’s follow‑up article, “NuScale’s Shocking Q3 Was a Bullish Signal in Disguise”, argued that while the GAAP loss was eye‑watering, the quarter actually fortified NuScale’s balance sheet, leaving it with over $753 million of cash and investments and a clearer path to fund its early projects. ^[25]

3.2 Strategic Progress: ENTRA1, TVA and RoPower

Beyond the messy P&L, Q3 included several key milestones: ^[26]

ENTRA1–TVA Agreement: NuScale’s partner ENTRA1 signed a landmark deal with TVA to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of NuScale SMR capacity, which the company calls the largest SMR deployment program in U.S. history.
Romania RoPower project: NuScale continued work on Fluor’s Phase 2 front‑end engineering and design (FEED) for the planned SMR plant at Doicești, Romania.
Commercial vs. R&D mix: The company shifted more engineering staff from pure R&D to revenue‑generating commercial work, which is why R&D expenses fell even as cost of sales rose. ^[27]

So Q3 painted a familiar SMR start‑up picture: very real progress on a potentially massive pipeline, financed by aggressive equity issuance and accompanied by huge GAAP losses.

4. The December 16 Shareholder Vote: Dilution vs. Survival

The single most important near‑term catalyst for SMR stock is NuScale’s special shareholder meeting on December 16, 2025.

4.1 What’s on the Ballot?

In a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) filed on November 20, NuScale asked shareholders to approve an amendment that would: ^[28]

Increase authorized Class A common shares from 332 million to 662 million.
Lift total authorized capital stock to 842 million shares.

The filing notes that as of the November 17 record date, all 332 million Class A shares were already issued or reserved, leaving essentially no capacity to issue new equity under the existing authorization. ^[29]

4.2 Why It Matters So Much

NuScale is candid about its situation in the proxy and risk disclosures: ^[30]

The company has not yet commercialized its NuScale Power Modules, and its revenue is still primarily from DOE cost‑sharing awards and project engineering contracts, not operating plants.
It expects to continue generating losses for the “near to medium term.”
It has relied heavily on at‑the‑market stock offerings to fund operations and expects to need additional capital.
The proxy explicitly warns that if the share‑increase proposal is not approved, the resulting capital constraints could “severely limit” its ability to finance operations and may create “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern.

MarketBeat’s DOE‑focused piece underscores this, calling the December 16 vote a critical catalyst for SMR: a “yes” vote unlocks more financing flexibility, while a “no” could trigger a crisis of confidence around NuScale’s survival. ^[31]

4.3 Fluor’s Exit and the Overhang Question

On the same day as Q3 earnings, NuScale and its long‑time partner Fluor Corporation announced a deal for Fluor to convert its remaining Class B units into Class A shares and systematically monetize its stake by the end of Q2 2026, subject to volume limits designed to avoid destabilizing the stock. Fluor also agreed to vote in favor of the share‑increase proposal and accept reduced rights under its tax receivable agreement. ^[32]

Taken together:

Positive:
- Fluor’s support increases the probability that the share‑increase passes, improving NuScale’s chances of raising future capital.
- The agreement simplifies NuScale’s capital structure by eliminating Class B units.
Negative:
- Fluor’s orderly sell‑down, combined with earlier large sales, represents a continuing share‑supply overhang, which can pressure the stock, especially in risk‑off markets. ^[33]

For investors, the December 16 vote looks like a binary event:
More dilution now vs. potential funding crunch later.

5. Analyst Ratings and NuScale Stock Forecasts

Wall Street is deeply divided on SMR, and that shows up in the forecasts.

5.1 Traditional Equity Research

MarketBeat consensus:
- Around 16 analysts have 12‑month targets on NuScale, with an average price target of $36.12, a low of $20 and a high of $60. At current prices near $23, that implies roughly 58% upside on average.
- The average rating is “Reduce”, with about 3 buys, 7 holds and 6 sells—a very mixed profile. ^[34]
StockAnalysis.com view:
- Tracks a smaller subset of 7 analysts, who collectively rate NuScale a “Hold” with an average target of $38.5, implying about 68% upside from current levels. ^[35]
Recent price target moves (QuiverQuant digest): ^[36]
- UBS: Cut target to $20 (Nov 25) after the Q3 sell‑off.
- RBC Capital: Target $32 (Nov 10).
- Bank of America: “Underperform,” target $34.
- Citigroup: “Sell,” target $37.50.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: “Overweight,” target $55.
- Canaccord Genuity: “Buy,” target $60.
- Barclays: Target $45.

That spread—from $20 to $60—captures the market’s core dilemma: Is NuScale an over‑valued pre‑revenue story or a discounted option on a multi‑decade nuclear build‑out?

5.2 Algorithmic and Technical Forecasts

Some algorithm‑driven platforms paint a more cautious picture:

CoinCodex projects NuScale’s price to drift down near $20.14 over the next few days, around 11% below current levels, and expects essentially flat performance over the next year, with a 2025 range clustered around $19.9–$20.4. Longer‑term, its model envisions a gradual rise into the $21–$36 range by 2030, but not dramatic near‑term gains. ^[37]
Tickeron notes that after November’s crash, NuScale’s RSI recently emerged from oversold territory and MACD turned positive, suggesting potential for a rebound—but other indicators, like the Aroon trend and moving averages, still flash warnings of a possible renewed downtrend. ^[38]

The message from the models: expect turbulence, not a straight line.

6. Volatility Check: From $57 to the Teens and Back Again

NuScale’s recent price history looks like a roller coaster:

Shares surged to $57.42 in mid‑October 2025, fueled by AI‑nuclear enthusiasm and the ENTRA1–TVA agreement. ^[39]
By late November, the stock had fallen more than 50% into the high‑teens after the Q3 earnings shock, analyst downgrades and concerns about dilution from the share‑increase proposal. TechStock²+1
As of December 4, the stock has bounced back toward the low‑20s, but 1‑month and 3‑month returns remain deeply negative (around ‑43–44%). ^[40]

This kind of price action is typical for what traders call a “story stock”:

Valuation rests on 2030s cash flows, not current earnings.
News about funding, regulation or marquee partners (TVA, DOE, Nvidia) can swing sentiment violently.
Technicals can amplify moves when momentum traders pile in or head for the exits.

Anyone considering SMR needs to be mentally prepared for large, sudden drawdowns.

7. NuScale Investment Thesis in 2025: Bull vs. Bear

This is not investment advice, but it’s useful to distill what bullish and bearish investors are focusing on.

7.1 The Bull Case for NuScale (SMR)

1. First‑mover regulatory moat
NuScale currently holds the distinction of being the first and only SMR design certified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, giving it a multi‑year head start over many competitors. ^[41]

2. Massive potential pipeline

ENTRA1’s agreement with TVA for up to 6 GW of NuScale capacity could become the flagship deployment program for U.S. SMRs. ^[42]
International prospects like RoPower’s project in Romania add geographic diversification. ^[43]

3. AI‑driven demand for 24/7 clean power
The combination of DOE funding for SMRs and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang arguing that AI “gigawatt factories” will need dedicated nuclear power plants creates a powerful narrative that SMRs are essential infrastructure for the AI era, not a niche science project. ^[44]

4. Strengthened balance sheet
Post‑Q3, NuScale sits on over $750 million in cash and investments, giving it runway to push projects forward, at least in the near term. ^[45]

5. Institutional interest
Institutional investors control the majority of the float (roughly 78%), and new filings like Trek Financial’s stake, plus significant purchases from funds like Samsung C&T and VanEck, show that large pools of capital are still willing to back the story, despite turbulence. ^[46]

For bulls, NuScale is a high‑risk, high‑reward pure play on next‑generation nuclear for AI and decarbonization.

7.2 The Bear Case for NuScale (SMR)

1. Pre‑revenue, deeply unprofitable profile
NuScale generated only about $64 million of trailing 12‑month revenue against a multi‑billion‑dollar market cap, and its Q3 net loss of over $500 million underscores just how far it is from profitability. ^[47]

2. Heavy reliance on equity and looming dilution

The company has already used ATM offerings extensively and is now asking investors to double authorized Class A shares.
Its own proxy warns that failure to approve the increase could raise going‑concern doubts, while approval opens the door to substantial future dilution and potential anti‑takeover effects. ^[48]

3. Aggressive insider selling and Fluor’s exit

Insiders have sold around 15 million shares in the last six months with no insider buys, led by Fluor. ^[49]
Fluor’s planned stake monetization through 2026, while orderly, still represents a multi‑year overhang on the stock. ^[50]

4. Execution risk and long timelines

Even with DOE support and TVA partnerships, commercial SMR deployment is unlikely to generate meaningful operating cash flow before the early‑to‑mid 2030s. ^[51]
Delays, cost overruns, regulatory hurdles or political shifts could materially impact project economics.

5. Competitive and valuation concerns

NuScale faces competition from GE‑Hitachi, Holtec, Oklo and other advanced nuclear vendors.
With an enterprise value in the mid‑single‑digit billions and revenue still well under $100 million, some analysts and quants argue the stock is overvalued relative to current fundamentals, even after the recent pullback. TechStock²+2Tickeron+2

For bears, SMR looks like an expensive option on a risky, long‑dated build‑out, with shareholders shouldering most of the financing risk via dilution.

8. What to Watch Next

For traders and long‑term investors alike, a few dates and themes now dominate the NuScale story:

December 16, 2025 – Special Shareholder Meeting
- Outcome of the authorized share increase vote (and any subsequent 8‑K filing with results). ^[52]
Fluor’s sell‑down pace
- How quickly Fluor monetizes its stake—and whether that coincides with broader risk‑off periods—will affect supply‑demand dynamics in SMR shares. ^[53]
Further DOE and utility announcements
- Any movement connecting NuScale more directly to funded DOE SMR projects or additional utility partners will be closely watched. ^[54]
Project milestones: TVA/ENTRA1 and RoPower
- Site selection, licensing, offtake agreements and financing for these projects could shift the market’s view from “story” to “contracted backlog”. ^[55]
Q4 2025 earnings and 2026 guidance (expected around March 2026)
- Updates on cash burn, additional ATM usage, and revenue visibility will be critical, especially if the share‑increase passes and investors want to quantify dilution versus runway. ^[56]

9. Bottom Line

As of December 4, 2025, NuScale Power sits at the center of one of the market’s most heated debates:

The bull narrative: a first‑in‑class SMR developer with a massive potential pipeline, strong policy tailwinds, AI‑driven demand and a fortified cash position.
The bear narrative: a pre‑revenue company trading at a rich valuation, reliant on ongoing equity issuance, with explicit going‑concern language if shareholders balk at doubling the share count.

The stock’s recent behavior—whipsawing from the high‑$50s to the high‑teens and back into the low‑$20s within weeks—reflects that tension.

For now, NuScale remains a high‑risk, high‑volatility nuclear‑AI play that may reward patient capital if it can convert its early‑stage projects into operating reactors without drowning shareholders in dilution.