Nutrien Ltd (NYSE/TSX: NTR), one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, is trading just under the $60 mark on December 3, 2025, after a strong year of earnings recovery, higher potash guidance and a fresh dividend declaration that implies a forward yield of about 3.7%. [1]
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analyses around Nutrien as of December 3, 2025, and what they may mean for the stock.
1. Nutrien stock today: price action and valuation snapshot
Market data from U.S. trading on Wednesday show Nutrien opening at $59.31, giving the company a market capitalization of about $28.7 billion. Over the past twelve months, the shares have traded between $43.69 and $65.08, so the current price sits in the upper half of the 1‑year range. [2]
Key valuation and balance‑sheet ratios reported today include: [3]
- P/E ratio: 21.26
- PEG ratio: 0.92
- Beta: 0.83 (less volatile than the broader market)
- Current ratio: 1.33
- Quick ratio: 0.85
- Debt‑to‑equity: 0.39
Zacks data show Nutrien’s share price up roughly 22% over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader fertilizers industry, which is up only about 4%. [4] That outperformance reflects both recovering fertilizer prices and improved company execution.
2. Recent earnings: Q2 & Q3 2025 show structural rebound
Q3 2025: earnings surge vs. last year
Nutrien’s latest reported quarter is Q3 2025, released on November 5. The company delivered: [5]
- Net earnings: $0.5 billion
- Diluted EPS: $0.96 (vs. just $0.04 in Q3 2024)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.97
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4 billion
- Nine‑month 2025 net earnings: $1.7 billion
- Nine‑month 2025 adjusted EBITDA: $4.8 billion
Third‑party summaries note that Q3 revenue rose by low double‑digits year‑on‑year, with Nutrien beating consensus estimates on both the top and bottom line, helped by higher fertilizer prices and stronger upstream volumes. [6]
Segment commentary from the company highlights:
- Potash: Record or near‑record sales volumes over the first nine months of 2025 and higher benchmark prices, especially in Brazil and Southeast Asia. [7]
- Nitrogen: Higher selling prices and volumes more than offset increased natural‑gas costs, pushing nitrogen gross margins higher. [8]
- Retail (Ag Solutions): Retail adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months rose on lower operating expenses and stronger proprietary product margins. [9]
Q2 2025: guidance raise and record potash volumes
In Q2 2025, Nutrien reported net earnings of $1.2 billion (EPS $2.50) and adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion for the quarter. For the first half of 2025, net earnings were $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA $3.3 billion, both up versus 2024 thanks to higher fertilizer prices and record potash volumes. [10]
Crucially, management raised full‑year 2025 potash sales volume guidance to 13.9–14.5 million tonnes and lifted its global potash shipment forecast to 73–75 million tonnes for 2025, citing strong affordability and low channel inventories in key markets. [11]
3. Fertilizer market backdrop: potash strength, tight nitrogen, complex phosphate
Nutrien’s outlook is tightly linked to global fertilizer markets, which remain unusually tight going into 2026.
Potash: multi‑year demand tailwind
- Nutrien expects global potash demand to continue growing into 2026, supported by nutrient depletion after large 2025 harvests and low inventories. [12]
- Company and industry forecasts now point to global potash shipments rising from 73–75 million tonnes in 2025 to roughly 74–77 million tonnes in 2026, underpinned by improved affordability in key markets and ongoing soil replenishment needs. [13]
As the world’s largest potash producer, Nutrien is a direct beneficiary of any sustained uptrend in potash pricing and volume.
Nitrogen: tight supply and volatile gas costs
S&P Global and company commentary highlight expectations for about 2% growth in global nitrogen demand in 2025, with plant outages, project delays and changing Chinese export policies keeping the nitrogen market tight into 2026. [14]
This backdrop supports higher ammonia, urea and UAN prices, but also exposes Nutrien to volatile natural‑gas costs, which the company flagged as a headwind for nitrogen margins in Q3. [15]
Phosphate: strong prices, strategic review
Phosphate markets are tighter than usual due to export restrictions from China and limited new capacity, which has pushed up diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices by over 40% year‑on‑year at points in 2025. [16]
Despite this supportive pricing:
- Phosphate still accounts for only around 6% of Nutrien’s earnings.
- Management has launched a strategic review of its phosphate business, considering potential restructuring, partnerships or even divestment. [17]
This could unlock capital for higher‑return segments (potash, nitrogen, retail) but also introduces execution risk as Nutrien reshapes its asset base.
4. Dividend, yield and capital returns
On November 5, Nutrien’s board declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.545 per share, payable January 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 31, 2025. [18]
At current prices near $59, that payout implies:
- An annualized dividend of $2.18 per share,
- A forward yield of about 3.7%, and
- A dividend payout ratio around 59% of expected earnings, according to MarketBeat’s summary. [19]
From the Q2 release:
- Nutrien returned $0.8 billion to shareholders in the first half of 2025 through dividends and buybacks, including the repurchase of 5.7 million shares for $316 million. [20]
Given the balance‑sheet metrics (moderate leverage and solid liquidity) and the company’s emphasis on shareholder returns, the dividend currently looks well‑supported by cash flow, assuming fertilizer markets remain favorable.
5. Institutional flows and ownership trends
Two new December 3, 2025 regulatory‑filing stories show large asset managers adjusting their exposure to Nutrien: [21]
- 1832 Asset Management L.P.
- Reduced its Nutrien position by 10.7% in Q2.
- Still holds 8.32 million shares, or about 1.71% of the company, worth roughly $485 million at the time of filing. [22]
- American Century Companies Inc.
- Cut its position by 36.3%, to 310,733 shares, worth around $18.1 million. [23]
Despite these sales, MarketBeat notes that institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own just over 63% of the float, reflecting Nutrien’s continued importance in large‑cap materials and agriculture portfolios. [24]
6. How Wall Street sees Nutrien: ratings, price targets and earnings forecasts
Across major data providers, the consensus view on Nutrien is cautiously constructive:
- MarketBeat: Consensus rating “Hold”, with an average 12‑month price target around $63. [25]
- StockAnalysis: 17 analysts with a “Hold” consensus and a $63.76 average target, implying roughly 6% upside from current levels. [26]
- TipRanks: 15 Wall Street analysts, average target $65.13 (high $76, low $58), suggesting roughly low‑teens upside over the next year. [27]
- Other aggregators such as TickerNerd and Danelfin report median or average targets in the $65–66 range, often with a tilt toward “Buy” or “Moderate Buy” ratings. [28]
On the fundamentals side, consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis call for: [29]
- 2025 revenue: $26.6 billion (up ~6% vs 2024)
- 2026 revenue: $26.9 billion (modest further growth)
- 2025 EPS: $4.64, up sharply from $1.36 in 2024
- 2026 EPS: $4.62, essentially flat vs 2025
In short, analysts see 2025 as a strong rebound year, with earnings stabilizing at a much higher level than 2024, but not necessarily accelerating dramatically thereafter unless fertilizer prices or volumes surprise to the upside.
7. Valuation debate: “hold” consensus vs “undervalued” models
While the official consensus rating is mostly “Hold”, several independent analyses argue the stock screens as undervalued:
- Zacks / TradingView:
- Rates Nutrien as Rank #3 (Hold) but highlights tailwinds from healthy crop‑nutrient demand, cost‑cutting and acquisitions, and notes that NTR has outperformed its fertilizer peers by a wide margin over the last year. [30]
- Simply Wall St:
- Uses a discounted cash flow model that estimates intrinsic value at about $117.64 per share, implying the stock trades at roughly a 28% discount to fair value.
- Also notes Nutrien trades on a P/E of ~16x versus roughly 21x for the broader chemicals industry, suggesting a valuation discount on earnings multiples as well. [31]
- Macro / industry commentary (ChronicleJournal & Investing.com):
- Emphasize that fertilizer companies, including Nutrien, look “attractively valued” given robust demand trends, structural supply constraints and, in some regions, protective trade policies that may shield North American producers. [32]
These more bullish views contrast with neutral brokerage ratings, reflecting a common split: long‑term value investors see significant upside if current fertilizer pricing persists, while sell‑side analysts are more cautious about cyclicality and input‑cost risks.
8. Strategic moves: portfolio reshaping and Profertil exit
Beyond pure earnings, Nutrien has been actively reshaping its portfolio:
- The company is reviewing its phosphate business, evaluating options ranging from internal restructuring to possible divestment, in order to focus on higher‑return segments. [33]
- It has sold its stake in Profertil S.A., an Argentine nitrogen joint venture, freeing capital and simplifying the nitrogen portfolio. [34]
Meanwhile, industry commentary points to a planned $1 billion export terminal investment at the Port of Longview in Washington State, intended to expand Nutrien’s reach into Asian markets and improve logistics for potash and other nutrients. [35]
These moves suggest an ongoing shift toward:
- Capital‑intensive, high‑moat potash and nitrogen assets, and
- Scalable, higher‑margin retail/Ag Solutions operations,
while pruning lower‑return or non‑core businesses.
9. Key risks investors are watching
Even with a constructive demand outlook, several risks could affect Nutrien’s share price:
- Commodity‑price volatility
- Fertilizer prices are historically cyclical. A sharp pullback in potash, nitrogen or phosphate prices, possibly driven by increased exports from major producers or policy changes in China, Russia or Belarus, would pressure margins. [36]
- Input‑cost inflation
- Nutrien remains exposed to natural gas and sulfur costs, both of which were elevated in 2025 and contributed to higher cost of goods sold in nitrogen and phosphate. [37]
- Regulatory and trade policy risk
- Designation of potash and phosphate as “critical” or “strategic” minerals in some jurisdictions can be a tailwind (by supporting domestic producers) but may also bring new regulations, environmental scrutiny or trade frictions. [38]
- Farmer affordability and demand destruction
- While fertilizer demand is currently strong, very high nutrient prices compress farmer margins and can lead to reduced application rates, especially in price‑sensitive regions like parts of Brazil. [39]
- Execution risk on strategic projects and portfolio changes
- Major capital projects (like export terminals) and a potential phosphate divestment require careful execution; delays or cost overruns could dilute returns. [40]
10. Bottom line: what the December 2025 picture suggests
Putting today’s news and recent developments together:
- Fundamentals: Earnings and cash flow have rebounded sharply in 2025, with Q3 results showing strong year‑on‑year EPS growth and solid EBITDA across potash, nitrogen and retail. [41]
- Dividends & returns: A near‑4% forward yield and consistent buybacks make Nutrien a meaningful income and capital‑return story in the basic‑materials space. [42]
- Macro backdrop: Fertilizer markets remain tight, particularly for potash and nitrogen, and the company’s raised potash guidance underlines management’s confidence in the cycle heading into 2026. [43]
- Street view: Analysts broadly rate the stock a “Hold” with price targets clustered in the mid‑$60s, implying modest upside, while several independent valuation models argue that the shares are meaningfully undervalued. [44]
For investors following Nutrien, the key issues to monitor from here include:
- Actual potash and nitrogen pricing through the 2026 planting seasons,
- Progress on the phosphate business review and capital‑allocation decisions,
- Any new trade or tariff developments that affect North American fertilizer flows, and
- The company’s ability to sustain cost savings and operating efficiency gains as markets normalize.
As always, this article is informational only and not individualized investment advice. Anyone considering NTR should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio strategy, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.nutrien.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.nutrien.com, 8. www.nutrien.com, 9. www.nutrien.com, 10. www.nutrien.com, 11. www.nutrien.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 14. www.spglobal.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. markets.financialcontent.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.nutrien.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. tickernerd.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. simplywall.st, 32. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. igrownews.com, 35. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 36. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 37. www.tradingview.com, 38. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 39. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 40. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 41. www.nutrien.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.nutrien.com, 44. stockanalysis.com
