NEW YORK, July 16, 2026, 09:59 EDT – Nvidia shares fell on Thursday after Japan outlined a plan to buy 27,500 GPUs by 2028, raising fresh questions about the pace of demand growth.
- U.S. cash markets opened. Nvidia last traded at $207.62 in delayed 09:44 EDT data, off 2.3%.
- Noetra, with government support, aims for 27,500 Rubin GPUs and 13,750 Vera CPUs. The group targets 140 megawatts. It wants to start operations by June 2028.
- The GPU number makes up around 1.5% to 1.6% of KeyBanc’s 2026 Rubin shipment forecast. That’s an analyst’s call, not official company guidance.
Nvidia stock lost 2.3% to $207.62 early Thursday. That drop came even after Japan announced a national infrastructure move. The move shows a new challenge. Now, demand over time outweighs a single order.
The order includes 27,500 GPUs, a hefty sum. That makes up about 1.5% to 1.6% of KeyBanc’s expected Rubin shipments for 2026. The figure comes from analysts, not official company targets.
The timelines differ. Noetra aims to begin building in April 2027. It targets starting operations in June 2028. The comparison focuses on project size, not when money comes in.
The project keeps its strategic pull. The 140-megawatt setup puts Nvidia’s demand into national infrastructure and real-world AI. But officials gave no contract value or timeline.
| Security | Google Finance ticker | Price | Session move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | NASDAQ:NVDA | $207.62 | -2.3% |
| Advanced Micro Devices | NASDAQ:AMD | $509.17 | -3.8% |
| Broadcom | NASDAQ:AVGO | $380.14 | -3.6% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ADR | NYSE:TSM | $407.46 | -2.9% |
| iShares Semiconductor ETF | NASDAQ:SOXX | $535.78 | -3.5% |
Early intraday glance at 09:44 EDT. Moves shown are from Wednesday’s finish.
Nvidia gained about 1.1 percentage points more than an equal-weighted trio of listed peers. The stock also topped the semiconductor ETF by close to 1.2 points. Both figures are early intraday measures.
The sector dropped further. TSMC posted $40.2 billion in second-quarter revenue with net profit up 77.4%. The chipmaker’s U.S. shares ended down 2.9%.
TSMC lifted its 2026 capex forecast to between $60 billion and $64 billion. The new range is $8 billion higher at both ends. CEO C.C. Wei told investors the company’s belief in a strong “multi-year AI megatrend remains very high.” Reuters
Foundry figures back Nvidia’s plans to boost output and meet strong demand. The chip giant forecast this quarter’s sales at $91 billion, give or take 2%. Nvidia left out China data-center compute revenue from this guidance.
KeyBanc’s John Vinh holds to his forecast for 1.7 million to 1.8 million Rubin chips shipped this year. He now expects the stock to hit $330, up from $310. A thermal snag that had caused a small delay has been fixed, he said.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Japan was setting up “AI factories that will power the next industrial revolution.” The statement sounds bold. The number of units revealed is smaller. NVIDIA Newsroom
Risks stay elevated. Rubin output may fall. Noetra’s 2028 timeline could shift. Export rules might tighten China trade.
Japan gives Nvidia a wider demand outlook. It does not alone shift near-term earnings.
