TORONTO, August 5, 2026, 14:07 EDT — North American markets begin trading.
- B2Gold rose 5.4% to $4.10, trailing the 7.3% increase logged by the gold-miner ETF.
- B2Gold will release its second-quarter results following the close of North American markets on Thursday.
- Goose’s higher-end guidance implies a quarterly output of approximately 84,000 ounces in the latter half.
B2Gold Corp. (NYSEAMERICAN:BTG; TSE:BTO) rose 5.4% to $4.10 as of 13:51 EDT on Wednesday. Despite the advance, the share price trailed the notable surge seen in bullion and other gold mining stocks.
The gap is significant ahead of the second-quarter results on Thursday. Analyst profit forecasts have declined. The upcoming report will reveal if Goose has regained throughput that was lost following the crushing-circuit fire in April.
As of 13:51 EDT, delayed quotes indicated these changes:
| Security | Price | Day move |
|---|---|---|
| B2Gold | $4.10 | up 5.4% |
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF NYSEARCA:GDX | $83.62 | gained 7.3% |
| Kinross Gold Corp. NYSE:KGC | $25.65 | advanced 8.7% |
| IAMGOLD Corp. NYSE:IAG | $15.94 | rose 7.7% |
| Eldorado Gold Corp. NYSE:EGO | $36.14 | jumped 13.6% |
| Spot gold | $4,242.96 | up 4.1% |
Spot gold quoted at 12:50 EDT.
The underperformance indicates that investors continue to factor in risks associated with individual mine operations. Gold prices climbed as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened. “The early adopters are getting back into precious metals,” independent trader Tai Wong said. Reuters
Goose output totaled 42,876 ounces in the first quarter, surpassing B2Gold’s expectations. Afterwards, management lowered the initial second-quarter projection to a range of 18,000-20,000 ounces. The earlier internal forecast was roughly 29,000 ounces.
Based on those numbers, maintaining the steady 170,000-230,000-ounce yearly target puts significant production pressure on the second half:
| 2026 Goose target | Implied H1 output | H2 output required | Required per H2 quarter | H2 share of annual output |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170,000 oz | 60,876-62,876 | 107,124-109,124 | 53,562-54,562 | 63.0%-64.2% |
| 200,000 oz midpoint | 60,876-62,876 | 137,124-139,124 | 68,562-69,562 | 68.6%-69.6% |
| 230,000 oz | 60,876-62,876 | 167,124-169,124 | 83,562-84,562 | 72.7%-73.5% |
Figures rely on initial quarter real output and B2Gold’s early estimate for the second quarter.
For the lower range, output in each quarter of the second half needs to surpass first-quarter levels by 25%-27%. To meet the upper range, the increase required rises to 95%-97%. Close to 75% of high-end yearly production would come after June.
The timeline for repairs includes a specific deadline. B2Gold plans to complete approximately $7 million in crushing-circuit repairs in the third quarter. Phase-one improvements, totalling about $11 million, are intended to lift output to 3,200 tonnes per day by the end of the quarter. A subsequent phase aims for 4,000 tonnes per day in 2027.
Mali introduces a further operational uncertainty. Fekola’s 410,000-460,000-ounce outlook was based on receiving a regional exploitation permit by June 30. With that deadline now expired, investors are waiting for clarity on the permit status and updated guidance on Thursday.
Short-term earnings projections have also decreased. A Refinitiv preview projects second-quarter profit at nine cents per share. FactSet Research Systems NYSE:FDS now estimates seven cents, compared to 11 cents reported three months prior.
| FactSet EPS estimate | Current | One month ago | Three months ago | Change from three months ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.07 | $0.09 | $0.11 | -36% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.18 | $0.23 | $0.25 | -28% |
| Full-year 2026 | $0.63 | $0.72 | $0.76 | -17% |
| Full-year 2027 | $1.12 | $1.25 | $1.35 | -17% |
The cutbacks come after a robust first quarter, with B2Gold posting adjusted earnings of 19 cents per share and generating $362 million in free cash flow. Still, a portion of sustaining expenditure was postponed to subsequent periods.
Analyst sentiment remains tilted towards positive, but target prices have recently declined. FactSet reports seven Buy recommendations, one Overweight, five Holds, and one Underweight. The consensus target of $6.16 stands roughly 50% higher than the stock’s level on Wednesday.
| Date | Broker and listed parent | Analyst | Recommendation | U.S.-dollar target action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | RBC Capital Markets / Royal Bank of Canada (TSE:RY; NYSE:RY) | Josh Wolfson | Sector Perform | Lowered to $5 from $5.75 |
| July 6, 2026 | Jefferies Financial Group NYSE:JEF | Fahad Tariq | Buy | Reduced to $6 from $7 |
| November 21, 2025 | CIBC Capital Markets / Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSE:CM; NYSE:CM) | Anita Soni | Neutral | Trimmed to $6 from $6.50 |
| October 10, 2025 | Raymond James Financial NYSE:RJF | Craig Stanley | Outperform | Lifted to $6 from $4.75 |
The range of targets is broad. FactSet’s lowest projection is $4.10, close to the price on Wednesday. The highest projection is $7.50.
Risks: Delays in Goose repairs are possible, and permitting issues at Fekola may limit ore volumes from the region. Increased gold prices would result in higher Mali royalties and all-in sustaining costs reported.
The first challenge will take place after Thursday’s market close. A conference call is scheduled for Friday at 11:00 EDT. Investors are set to assess Goose’s reported production against the preliminary estimate of 18,000-20,000 ounces.
Related articles: NYSEARCA:GDX
Further analysis
How is the market positioned right before earnings?
BTG was last up 4.6% at $4.07 as of 17:48 UTC Wednesday. Spot gold increased by 4.1% to $4,242.92 per ounce. B2Gold will release its second-quarter earnings after markets close on Thursday.
What does Goose need to demonstrate in the second quarter?
The April crusher fire caused Goose to lower its Q2 outlook to 18,000–20,000 ounces, down from an earlier internal projection of about 29,000 ounces. Management maintained full-year Goose guidance between 170,000 and 230,000 ounces. Repairs and a return to 3,200-tonne daily capacity are still expected by September 30.
Is 2026 guidance for Fekola Regional still being maintained?
The most recent guidance had forecast 60,000–80,000 regional ounces as part of Fekola’s 410,000–460,000-ounce goal. B2Gold stated this target depended on a permit being secured by June 30. That date has now passed. Thursday’s announcement needs to specify if the target ounces are still reachable.
Are elevated gold prices sufficient to support operations and payouts to shareholders?
In Q1, gold sales averaged $4,193, while all-in sustaining costs stood at $1,964. Free cash flow totaled $362 million. B2Gold subsequently received $325 million from the sale of Fingold and completely paid off its revolving credit facility. The company had bought back 20 million shares for $98 million as of May 6. Full-year AISC guidance is unchanged at $2,400–$2,580, remaining higher than Q1 AISC.
