Nvidia (NVDA) After-Hours Move on December 9, 2025: What to Know Before the December 10 Market Open

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) had a choppy regular session on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, but the real story started after the closing bell.

Shares slipped during the day and finished around $184.5, down roughly 0.5% on heavy volume. ^[1] Yet by 8:00 p.m. ET, Nvidia was changing hands at about $189.90 in after-hours trading, a gain of 2.7% versus the regular close. ^[2]

The move came as investors digested:

Washington’s decision to allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to “approved” customers in China, with 25% of the related revenue going to the U.S. government. ^[3]
Fresh analyst price-target hikes and upbeat long-term AI forecasts. ^[4]
Ongoing Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, with markets betting on another cut at Wednesday’s decision. ^[5]

Below is a structured look at what happened to Nvidia stock after the bell on December 9 and what traders and investors should know before the U.S. market opens on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.

Key Takeaways for NVDA Before the December 10 Open

Regular session drift, after-hours pop
- NVDA closed near $184.5, down roughly 0.5% on the day. ^[6]
- By 8:00 p.m. ET, shares traded around $189.90 after-hours, up about 2.7% from the close. ^[7]
China export overhang partially lifted
- The U.S. will allow Nvidia’s H200 AI accelerators to ship to selected Chinese customers.
- 25% of revenue from those sales will flow to the U.S. government, and exports require additional security oversight. ^[8]
But geopolitics are still messy
- U.S. security hawks warn that renewed chip sales could bolster China’s military capabilities. ^[9]
- A Financial Times–linked report suggests China may restrict access to H200 chips anyway, capping the upside. ^[10]
Wall Street is loudly bullish, with a few contrarians
- Consensus 12‑month price targets cluster around $248–260, implying roughly 35–40% upside. ^[11]
- Bank of America’s target is $275, Morgan Stanley’s $250, while a Forbes model points to a more cautious $133. ^[12]
Valuation is rich, even by AI standards
- Nvidia is worth about $4.5 trillion with trailing 12‑month revenue near $187 billion and net income around $99 billion. ^[13]
- NVDA trades at roughly 45–46× trailing earnings and around 26–30× forward earnings. ^[14]

1. How Nvidia Stock Traded on December 9, 2025

During Tuesday’s regular U.S. trading session:

Open: about $185.56
High: around $185.72
Low: roughly $183.32
Close: about $184.53, down ~0.5% from Monday’s close near $185.55
Volume: well over 100 million shares, consistent with Nvidia’s status as a hyper-liquid mega cap. ^[15]

Broader markets were mixed as the Federal Reserve began its two-day December policy meeting, with major indexes hovering near record highs but showing caution ahead of Wednesday’s interest-rate decision. ^[16]

Investopedia notes that Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable listed company at roughly $4.5 trillion, ended the session down about 0.3%, underperforming the S&P 500 as traders processed the conflicting implications of the new China export framework. ^[17]

Intraday, NVDA:

Opened weaker, down around 0.8% at one point, as headlines circulated that China might still limit which domestic firms can buy H200 chips. ^[18]
Stabilized near the flat line as analysts began framing the U.S. export decision as a partial victory, not a full reopening. ^[19]

In other words, the day session looked like “sell the headline, wait for clarity.”

2. Why Nvidia Popped After the Bell

The tone changed once regular trading ended.

According to after-hours data from Public.com, Nvidia traded around $189.90 at 8:00 p.m. ET on December 9, up $5.02 (2.71%) from the regular-session close of $184.88. ^[20]

This extended-hours rebound builds on the move from Monday night, when Trump’s initial announcement about H200 sales to China pushed NVDA about 2.3% higher in after-hours trading, as reported by Investing.com and other outlets. ^[21]

So what changed after the bell on Tuesday?

Main drivers of the after-hours rally

Re-focusing on the revenue opportunity
- The initial intraday wobble on Dec 9 was about risks (security reviews, possible Chinese limits); after hours, traders appeared to refocus on the size of the opportunity in China and the fact that at least some advanced chip sales are coming back. ^[22]
Bullish analyst commentary hit the wires
- Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating with a $275 price target, citing Nvidia’s disclosure of roughly $500 billion in data-center orders across 2025–26 and forecasting around 70% annual growth in sales and profits. ^[23]
- Various platforms report a consensus “Strong Buy” rating and 30–40% implied upside over the next 12 months, reinforcing the dip-buying narrative. ^[24]
Macro backdrop: rate-cut expectations
- Futures markets are pricing in a high probability of another 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting, a tailwind for long-duration, high-growth equities like NVDA. ^[25]
Momentum and positioning
- After a 12.6% drop in November amid AI-bubble worries, many institutional investors and hedge funds appear to be treating pullbacks in NVDA as opportunities to rebuild positions rather than exits. ^[26]

Put simply: the same news looked more attractive in the calmer after-hours tape, especially for traders who view NVDA as the core AI “must own” into 2026.

3. The China H200 Deal: Big Win, Complicated Story

The core catalyst this week is the U.S. decision to partially reopen high-end AI chip exports to China.

What exactly did the U.S. just approve?

Across Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and related coverage, the structure looks like this: ^[27]

Nvidia can export its H200 AI accelerators — its second-most-powerful data-center GPU — to “approved” Chinese customers.
25% of the revenue from those sales will go to the U.S. government, essentially a special levy on these exports.
Shipments are subject to enhanced national-security review, designed to limit usage in sensitive military or surveillance applications.
Even with this deal, Nvidia cannot freely sell its most advanced platforms into China; export limits on top-tier chips remain.

For Nvidia, this partially restores a market that once made up roughly 20–25% of its data-center business, according to estimates referenced in coverage from The Economic Times and other outlets. ^[28]

The geopolitical catch

It’s not all clear skies:

U.S. security hawks warn that even controlled H200 exports could “supercharge” China’s military AI capabilities, and they question whether a revenue skim meaningfully mitigates that risk. ^[29]
A report summarized via Sherwood and StreetInsider suggests that Chinese regulators may still restrict which domestic players get access to H200 chips, adding uncertainty about the true revenue uplift. ^[30]
Morningstar/MarketWatch coverage notes that charges related to smuggling older Nvidia chips to China landed almost simultaneously, muddying the optics around U.S.–China chip flows. ^[31]

On the flip side, AI Business argues that the arrangement may actually benefit all parties: the U.S. gets additional revenue and visibility, China gains legal access to substantial (but not cutting-edge) compute, and Nvidia can monetize demand that might otherwise shift entirely to domestic Chinese rivals. ^[32]

Bottom line:
For NVDA, the H200 decision removes a major policy overhang but does not fully de-risk China. Markets are now set up to react to every incremental headline on licensing, enforcement and Chinese countermeasures.

4. Wall Street’s Latest Forecasts for Nvidia (as of December 9)

Research published or updated on and around December 9, 2025 paints a picture of strong, but not unanimous, optimism.

Consensus targets & ratings

Recent data from several platforms show broadly similar conclusions: ^[33]

Finbold / TipRanks:
- 41 analyst ratings, majority Buy/Strong Buy
- Average price target: about $258 (≈ 39% upside from the mid‑$180s)
MarketBeat:
- 53 analysts
- Average target:$258.65
- Range:$205–$352
- Implied upside near 40%
StockAnalysis:
- 39 analysts, “Strong Buy” consensus
- Average target: about $248.64
- High:$352, Low:$100
StocksGuide:
- Average target: roughly $232.56 (≈ 27% upside)
- Ratings:64 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell

High-profile calls

Bank of America – $275 target (Buy):
- Highlights about $500 billion in disclosed data-center orders for 2025–26,
- Projects ~70% annual growth in sales and profits over that period,
- Frames Nvidia as the central supplier for hyperscale AI infrastructure, including AWS’s future Trainium 4 accelerator using Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion platform. ^[34]
Morgan Stanley – $250 target (Overweight):
- Reiterated in early December; Benzinga notes it as one of the most closely followed big-bank views on NVDA. ^[35]
Investing.com – “Buy NVDA” toward $250–270:
- A trading-focused note argues for buying NVDA with a $250 target in 2025 and $270 by mid‑2026, citing strong institutional demand, a robust product roadmap and technical support around $170. ^[36]

The cautious camp

Not everyone is all-in:

Forbes highlights an NVDA price target of $133 in one model, emphasizing that even with surging AI demand, there are significant valuation, regulatory, and cyclical risks that could drive downside from current levels. ^[37]
Morningstar continues to describe Nvidia as a wide-moat leader but has previously flagged the stock as “fairly valued to overvalued” depending on the scenario, especially after its massive run-up earlier in 2025. ^[38]
Fortune captured CEO Jensen Huang’s own frustration after a recent selloff, quoting him describing Nvidia as being in a “no-win situation” amid AI-bubble chatter — an admission that sentiment can decouple sharply from fundamentals. ^[39]

Other long-form pieces from Seeking Alpha, 24/7 Wall St and The Motley Fool on December 9 frame Nvidia as the centerpiece of a multi‑year AI monetization “supercycle”, but repeatedly warn that investors should brace for volatility and large short-term drawdowns even if the long-term thesis holds. ^[40]

5. Valuation Snapshot: Nvidia’s Numbers Going Into December 10

With NVDA around the mid‑$180s and a market cap of roughly $4.5 trillion, Nvidia is not just another chip stock; it’s a macro force. ^[41]

Key fundamental metrics as of December 9:

Market cap: ≈ $4.5T
Revenue (TTM): ≈ $187B, up about 65% year-on-year, driven overwhelmingly by data-center AI demand. ^[42]
Net income (TTM): ≈ $99B
EPS (TTM): ≈ $4.04 ^[43]
Trailing P/E: around 45–46× (some providers show just over 50× depending on the earnings window). ^[44]
Forward P/E: roughly 26–30×, based on aggressive earnings expectations. ^[45]
Price-to-sales (TTM): around 24×, far above the S&P 500 average. ^[46]

Historically, Nvidia has traded at a higher average P/E (about 53×) over the last decade, so today’s multiple is not at its personal extremes — but it remains elevated versus most large-cap peers and the broader market. ^[47]

This is the crux of the debate:

Bulls argue that Nvidia’s earnings base has exploded and that traditional valuation metrics haven’t caught up to a company with near-monopoly economics in AI accelerators. ^[48]
Skeptics worry that AI spending is subject to cyclical or “bubble” dynamics, pointing to episodes like the January 2025 DeepSeek shock, when NVDA lost about 17% in a single day before partially rebounding. ^[49]

Either way, valuation magnifies the impact of every macro headline and every guidance tweak — which is why tomorrow’s Fed decision and any fresh export-policy commentary loom so large.

6. Key Risks and Wild Cards Before the December 10 Open

Heading into Wednesday’s pre-market and regular session, here are the main issues traders and longer-term investors may want to watch around NVDA:

Federal Reserve decision & tone
- Markets largely expect a 25 bp rate cut, but the dot plot and Powell’s commentary on future cuts could swing high-valuation tech either way. ^[50]
- A more hawkish-than-expected message could pressure P/E multiples across the “AI complex,” including Nvidia.
Further clarity on H200 export rules
- The Commerce Department still needs to flesh out licensing details and the practical scope of “approved customers.” ^[51]
- Any signs of tighter-than-expected implementation — or fresh political pushback in Washington — could cool enthusiasm.
China’s response and implementation risks
- Reports that China may limit which companies can access H200 chips introduce another layer of uncertainty. ^[52]
- If Beijing steers more orders toward domestic GPU vendors, Nvidia’s theoretical revenue opportunity could be smaller than bulls assume.
Legal and compliance overhangs
- U.S. charges related to smuggling older Nvidia chips to China highlight enforcement risk and may lead to stricter scrutiny of all export channels. ^[53]
AI-capex & data-center demand signals
- Street expectations for Nvidia’s future growth are built on massive capex plans from hyperscalers and AI leaders.
- News like AWS’s use of NVLink Fusion with Trainium 4, IBM’s acquisition of Confluent, and ongoing AI build-out from peers like Broadcom are all part of the same ecosystem investors track closely. ^[54]
Positioning, flows and insider activity
- Recent 13F filings show big institutional interest (Wealthspire, Outlook Wealth Advisors, ARS, Dorsey Wright, and others) shifting positions — some adding NVDA, others taking profits. ^[55]
- Insider selling has also been notable, with directors and executives disposing of hundreds of thousands of shares over recent months. ^[56]
Technical levels & sentiment
- NVDA’s 52‑week range runs roughly from $86.62 to $212.19, putting the current price in the upper half but below its highs. ^[57]
- Some trading-focused analyses highlight support around $170 and upside targets of $250–270 into 2026, but also stress that sharp swings are normal for a stock this widely traded. ^[58]

7. A Practical Checklist for NVDA Watchers Before the Bell

Nothing here is personalized advice, but if you’re following Nvidia stock into the December 10, 2025 open, it can help to work through a quick mental checklist:

Check pre-market pricing and volume for NVDA and QQQ/Nasdaq futures
- Are after-hours gains holding, expanding, or fading ahead of the open?
Revisit your assumptions on the H200 China opportunity
- Are you modeling a full return of prior China data-center revenue, or a more conservative partial recovery given the political and regulatory noise?
Factor in the Fed timing
- Remember the rate decision hits mid‑day, not pre-market. Volatility around NVDA could spike in the afternoon even if the morning is calm.
Reassess time horizon vs. volatility tolerance
- Nvidia’s November slump and prior AI-driven selloffs show this is not a low-volatility stock, even if the long-term thesis is intact. ^[59]
Look beyond the headline P/E
- Consider whether you’re comfortable owning (or shorting) a company trading at mid‑40s trailing earnings and high‑20s forward earnings in a still-uncertain macro backdrop. ^[60]
Stay diversified
- Nvidia is a huge slice of major indexes; concentration risk is real. Many institutional analyses highlight the need to avoid letting NVDA dominate overall portfolio risk. ^[61]

Final Thought

Nvidia’s post-bell jump on December 9, 2025 is a reminder that this stock trades both on fundamentals and on global policy headlines.

On one hand, the H200 export deal and monster order book underpin the story that NVDA remains the core AI infrastructure winner. ^[62]
On the other, valuation, geopolitics, and Fed policy together mean even minor disappointments can produce major price swings.

Going into the December 10 open, Nvidia remains the market’s AI bellwether: how NVDA trades around the Fed decision and further China headlines is likely to echo across the entire tech complex.