Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into Wednesday’s US session as the single most important stock in the market, with Q3 FY26 earnings due after the close and options pricing in a historic move. Before the opening bell on November 19, Nvidia shares are indicated around $181 in pre-market trading, leaving the AI chip leader valued at roughly $4.5 trillion and still the world’s most valuable listed company. [1]
With global indices stabilising after a multi-day tech sell-off, today’s Nvidia report is widely framed as a “make-or-break” moment for the AI trade and the S&P 500’s 2025 rally. [2]
Key Things to Know About Nvidia Stock Before Market Open
- Earnings hit after the close: Nvidia will report fiscal Q3 2026 results and host its earnings call this afternoon (2:00 p.m. Pacific). [3]
- Huge expectations: Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $54.6–$54.9 billion, up about 56% year over year, with EPS around $1.23 – still blistering growth, but slower than prior triple‑digit gains. [4]
- Options imply extreme volatility: Derivatives markets are pricing an ~7–8% post‑earnings move, equivalent to roughly $320 billion of market value swinging in either direction. [5]
- New AI megadeal: Nvidia and Microsoft just unveiled a multi‑billion‑dollar strategic alliance with Anthropic, including up to $10B from Nvidia and $30B of Azure compute commitments powered by Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems. [6]
- Geopolitics still matter: Washington is preparing to approve large exports of advanced AI chips to Saudi AI firm Humain—a potential win for Nvidia—even as tight restrictions on sales to China remain in place. [7]
- Valuation debate is intense: Nvidia’s market cap briefly topped $5 trillion in October and is up ~1,200% over three years, but the stock has slid this month as investors question whether AI is in a bubble. [8]
Below is a closer look at how Nvidia stock is positioned ahead of the bell and what today’s news flow means if you’re watching NVDA.
1. How Nvidia Stock Looks Heading Into Today’s Session
After surging to a record and briefly crossing the $5 trillion valuation mark on October 29, Nvidia shares have pulled back, with several pieces of market commentary noting a 7–8% decline so far in November amid worries about stretched AI valuations. [9]
On Tuesday, Nov. 18, Nvidia fell nearly 2% as part of a broader risk‑off move that saw the S&P 500 log its fourth straight loss. [10] Reuters also notes the stock has dropped about 4–5% over the past two sessions, underscoring how skittish traders have become ahead of tonight’s report. [11]
As of early pre‑market trade today, futures on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are modestly higher, with multiple outlets highlighting Nvidia earnings as the key event that could break the market’s losing streak or deepen the sell‑off. [12]
Takeaway for traders:
- Nvidia is coming off a short‑term correction, not an all‑time high, but expectations remain enormous.
- Even small surprises in guidance or commentary on AI demand could trigger an outsized move, given how crowded the AI trade has become.
2. Nvidia Earnings Today: What Wall Street Expects
Nvidia will release fiscal Q3 2026 results for the quarter covering roughly August–October, with the earnings call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific / 5:00 p.m. Eastern. [13]
Consensus estimates
Across LSEG and other data providers, recent previews line up on roughly the following: [14]
- Revenue: about $54.6–$54.9 billion
- ~56% year‑over‑year growth
- Up from $46.7 billion last quarter
- EPS: around $1.23 (up just over 50% year over year)
- Data center is expected to remain the dominant growth driver, powered by demand for Blackwell‑based AI systems at cloud giants and AI labs.
Nvidia has beaten Wall Street’s earnings expectations for 12 straight quarters, but the magnitude of its beats has been shrinking as comparisons get tougher and the numbers get larger. [15]
Last quarter (Q2 FY26), Nvidia reported: [16]
- $46.7 billion in revenue, up 56% year over year
- Strong sequential growth in Blackwell data center revenue (up 17%)
- No H20 chip sales to China, with an inventory release and rerouting of H20 units to other markets after new export controls
This quarter, investors will focus heavily on:
- Data center growth vs. expectations (and any sign of AI “overbuild”) [17]
- Forward guidance for Q4 and early FY27
- Gross margins, given the cost and complexity of cutting‑edge Blackwell and upcoming Rubin architectures [18]
- Commentary on customer capex plans at Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and a growing roster of AI startups
3. Options Traders Are Braced for a Record‑Setting Move
Perhaps the most eye‑catching pre‑earnings datapoint: options markets.
A Reuters analysis of Nvidia options suggests traders are bracing for about a 7–8% move in the stock following tonight’s results, implying roughly a $320 billion swing in market value — potentially the largest post‑earnings move ever for a single company. [19]
Investing.com and other outlets frame this as a “make‑or‑break” moment for the S&P 500’s AI‑driven rally, given Nvidia’s enormous index weight. [20]
What this means practically:
- Implied volatility is very high. A “meet” or even modest beat may not be enough to push NVDA higher if guidance or commentary disappoint.
- Gamma flows matter. Large options positions around key strikes can exacerbate upside or downside moves as dealers hedge after the print.
- Short‑term traders should assume wider‑than‑usual intraday ranges in NVDA and related AI names.
4. The Anthropic–Microsoft–Nvidia AI Megadeal
One of the biggest company‑specific catalysts in the last 48 hours is Nvidia’s newly expanded partnership with Anthropic and Microsoft.
According to joint announcements from the three companies and follow‑up reporting: [21]
- Anthropic will:
- Scale its Claude models on Microsoft Azure, powered by Nvidia GPUs
- Commit to $30 billion of Azure compute capacity, with the option to scale up to 1 gigawatt of infrastructure built on Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems
- Nvidia and Microsoft will:
- Invest up to $10 billion (Nvidia) and $5 billion (Microsoft) in Anthropic
- Work closely with Anthropic to co‑optimize Nvidia’s future architectures for Claude workloads
For Nvidia shareholders, this deal signals:
- Durable structural demand: A gigawatt‑scale AI deployment anchored on Nvidia platforms reinforces the notion that hyperscalers and AI labs are locking in multi‑year GPU spending.
- Deeper ecosystem lock‑in: Co‑designing architectures with a leading AI lab makes it harder for rivals to displace Nvidia in the most advanced workloads.
- Capital allocation questions: Nvidia has now invested tens of billions of dollars into AI companies this year (roughly $23.7 billion per one recent tally), prompting some analysts to ask how “circular” these deals are—Nvidia funds customers who then buy more Nvidia chips. [22]
Expect questions on tonight’s call about:
- The expected financial return on these equity stakes
- How much GPU capacity Anthropic is contractually obliged to take
- Whether similar mega‑deals are coming with other AI labs
5. Saudi AI Chip Exports: A New Demand Source – and a New Risk
Another late‑breaking story with implications for Nvidia is US approval of AI chip exports to Saudi Arabia’s Humain, a state‑backed AI venture.
Reports from Bloomberg, Semafor and others say: [23]
- The US government is preparing to greenlight the first large sales of advanced AI chips to Humain.
- The deal could involve tens of thousands of high‑end AI accelerators, benefiting chipmakers including Nvidia and AMD.
- The approvals are part of a broader US–Saudi AI and data‑center agreement, with Humain planning multi‑gigawatt data‑center buildouts and pitching Saudi Arabia as a low‑cost global compute hub.
At the same time, Nvidia remains constrained in China, where the US imposed an indefinite export‑license requirement on H20‑class chips and other advanced GPUs destined for China and a group of “D:5” countries back in April. [24]
Why this matters for NVDA:
- Saudi approvals could partially offset lost China volume, opening a large new market for high‑end AI silicon.
- But they also underline how geopolitics dominate Nvidia’s addressable market, with access determined by shifting export policies rather than pure demand.
- Investors will be listening for any quantification of Saudi‑related demand on tonight’s call, and whether management believes further tightening around China is still a risk.
6. Is This an AI Bubble? How Sentiment Around Nvidia Has Shifted
Multiple major outlets have framed today’s earnings as a referendum on the AI boom itself.
- Reuters’ “bubble or breakout” analysis notes that Nvidia’s revenue is expected to jump around 56% this quarter, but that represents a slowdown from the triple‑digit growth rates seen earlier in the cycle. [25]
- The same piece highlights that Nvidia shares have soared roughly 1,200% over the past three years but have fallen nearly 8% in November, as investors question whether AI valuations are sustainable. [26]
- Fortune, Investopedia and others argue that because of Nvidia’s sheer size and weighting, tonight’s results could “upend global markets” if they underwhelm. [27]
On the bullish side:
- Some analysts say Nvidia’s valuation—while lofty—is not extreme relative to its earnings growth and visibility into multi‑year AI infrastructure spending. [28]
- AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers is expected to stay elevated for years, with capex plans in the hundreds of billions, which would continue to favour Nvidia’s high‑end GPUs.
On the cautious side:
- Prominent investors like Michael Burry and SoftBank have trimmed or exited large Nvidia positions, moves that some commentators see as classic late‑cycle signals. [29]
- A Yahoo Finance breakdown of Nvidia’s $24B “AI deal blitz” flags concerns that heavy investments in AI customers plus aggressive buybacks and capex could eventually constrain financial flexibility if AI spending normalises. [30]
Net sentiment: Still broadly bullish but more nervous, with the bar for “good enough” tonight arguably higher than in prior quarters.
7. What Analysts Are Saying This Morning
Fresh notes this morning show Wall Street mostly sticking with Buy ratings but acknowledging that expectations are tight:
- Wolfe Research maintains a bullish stance, citing a still‑strong analyst consensus rating near “Buy” (around 1.3 on a 1–5 scale) and multiple recent upward revisions to earnings estimates. [31]
- Banks including BNP Paribas Exane and Stifel have recently raised price targets to around $250, expecting what one note calls a “classic marginal beat/raise” scenario. [32]
- Several commentaries—across Barchart, The Motley Fool, and others—frame the question as whether it’s smarter to buy ahead of earnings or wait for a possible post‑print pullback, given the implied volatility. [33]
Importantly, none of this is a guarantee of price direction; it simply underlines that consensus remains optimistic, even as risk perception rises.
8. Four Numbers to Watch in Today’s Report
If you’re following NVDA today, here are four metrics that could drive the stock’s reaction:
- Data Center Revenue Growth
- Does data center grow faster than total revenue (i.e., >56% YoY)?
- Any sign that cloud providers are slowing AI capex or “digesting” earlier orders will be treated as a red flag. [34]
- Gross Margin and Opex
- High‑end Blackwell and Rubin systems are costly to build. If margins compress more than expected, it could spark concern that pricing power is fading or costs are rising too quickly. [35]
- Bookings and Backlog
- CEO Jensen Huang has recently pointed to around $500 billion of bookings for advanced chips through 2026; any update on that figure will be scrutinised as a proxy for future demand visibility. [36]
- China, Saudi and Regulatory Commentary
- Management’s tone on export controls to China, and on new opportunities in Saudi Arabia and other regions, will help investors gauge how much policy risk hangs over Nvidia’s growth trajectory. [37]
9. Bottom Line for Nvidia Stock Before the Bell
Heading into the November 19 open, Nvidia sits at the centre of three powerful—and conflicting—forces:
- Explosive fundamentals: Consensus still calls for mid‑50s percentage revenue growth on a base of more than $50 billion per quarter, with a long runway of AI infrastructure demand and new architectures in the pipeline. [38]
- Historic expectations and positioning: Nvidia is a multi‑trillion‑dollar bellwether, has powered much of the S&P 500’s gains, and options markets are pricing an unprecedented potential swing in value. [39]
- Rising macro and policy risk: AI valuations, export controls, and the sustainability of hyperscaler capex all loom large over the story, even as Nvidia signs huge new AI deals like the Anthropic partnership and stands to benefit from Saudi compute build‑outs. [40]
For traders and investors watching before the open, the key is to recognise that tonight’s report is as much about narrative as numbers:
- A strong beat plus confident guidance on AI demand, exports, and capital allocation could reignite the AI rally and push NVDA back toward record highs.
- A miss—or even an in‑line result with cautious commentary—could reinforce bubble fears and trigger the kind of multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar swing that options are signalling.
As always, this overview is for information and news purposes only and is not financial advice. Anyone considering trading NVDA around earnings should carefully weigh volatility, position size, and risk tolerance.
References
1. companiesmarketcap.com, 2. www.bloomberg.com, 3. investor.nvidia.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. blogs.nvidia.com, 7. news.bloomberglaw.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. investor.nvidia.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.independent.co.uk, 16. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. blogs.nvidia.com, 22. finance.yahoo.com, 23. news.bloomberglaw.com, 24. globaltradealert.org, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. fortune.com, 28. pro.thestreet.com, 29. www.barchart.com, 30. finance.yahoo.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.barchart.com, 34. finance.yahoo.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.independent.co.uk, 37. globaltradealert.org, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. companiesmarketcap.com, 40. blogs.nvidia.com
