New York, Jan 12, 2026, 08:17 EST — Premarket
- UGA gained roughly 0.8% in premarket trading following Friday’s close of $63.98
- RBOB gasoline futures hover around $1.79 a gallon, reflecting expected tightness this spring
- Traders keep an eye on Iran headlines ahead of the Jan. 14 U.S. inventory report
Shares of the United States Gasoline Fund climbed 0.8% in U.S. premarket trading Monday, reaching roughly $64.50. The fund, tied to gasoline prices, closed Friday at $63.98 and has gained around 4% since the start of January.
The product tape remains twitchy heading into the week, as energy traders weigh new geopolitical risks against weak winter demand and persistently low pump prices.
Front-month RBOB gasoline futures, the key U.S. contract for reformulated gasoline blendstock used in oxygen blending, slipped 0.31% to around $1.7902 per gallon. The NYMEX contract trades in dollars per gallon and represents 42,000 gallons.
The curve is making the noise. April RBOB hovered near $2.0356 a gallon, with May pushing $2.0414—a sharp spring premium in the strip of prices across months. This kind of move typically signals the market bracing for tighter summer-grade supply.
AAA data showed the U.S. national average for regular gasoline at $2.796 a gallon on Monday. That’s slightly down from $2.812 a week earlier and roughly 27 cents cheaper than last year’s $3.067.
Crude prices showed little direction. Brent slipped 0.2% to $63.19 a barrel, with U.S. WTI falling 0.3% to $58.93 by 1248 GMT. This followed Iran’s claim that it had the situation “under total control” after weekend unrest. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted, “Lower European equity markets and lack of additional supply disruptions is moderately weighing on oil prices.” Meanwhile, MST Marquee’s Saul Kavonic pointed out the market is holding back, waiting for actual disruptions before reacting. Reuters
Goldman Sachs held its 2026 price targets steady, forecasting Brent at $56 a barrel and WTI at $52. The bank pointed to an expected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day and rising OECD inventories as key downward pressures—unless a significant supply disruption occurs.
New refining capacity continues to roll out. On Monday, Indonesia unveiled a $7.4 billion upgrade to Pertamina’s Balikpapan refinery, boosting output to 360,000 barrels per day. Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia declared: “So we will no longer import,” as the facility scales up gasoline production. Reuters
UGA targets the front of the market. It tracks daily gasoline price changes by holding near-month NYMEX RBOB futures and rolling its benchmark as the front contract nears expiration.
Peers showed less movement. The United States Oil Fund, tracking crude, climbed roughly 0.3% in early U.S. trading.
The downside is clear. If the Iran premium drops, Venezuelan crude arrives sooner than anticipated, or U.S. data signals softer gasoline demand, the spring premium could shrink, pulling gasoline-related products down. Plus, thin premarket volume can amplify moves in funds like UGA.
The next major trigger comes Wednesday with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report, scheduled for Jan. 14. It will provide fresh data on gasoline inventories and refinery activity.
