NEW YORK, August 11, 2026, 14:30 EDT
- SpaceX dropped 5.3% to $131.33, slipping under its IPO price of $135.
- Approximately 320 million restricted shares are set to become available on August 20.
- The upcoming tranche represents 2.6 times the recent average daily volume at SpaceX.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX dropped 5.3% to $131.33 Tuesday afternoon, trading 2.7% under the $135 IPO price. By 14:30 EDT, trading volume had totaled 81.7 million shares.
The drop is significant as another supply event is approaching in nine days. Roughly 320 million restricted shares will be available for sale on August 20. This amount represents 2.6 times the average daily volume of SpaceX over the past three months.
The initial test surpassed bearish forecasts. Around 911 million shares became available last week, but notable insider selling did not occur. SpaceX shares surged 16% on Friday and gained another 4.2% Monday, finishing at $138.74.
| Tuesday market overview | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock price | $131.33 |
| Move on day | -5.3% |
| Trading interval for day | $130.50-$139.98 |
| Volume as of 14:30 EDT | 81.7 million |
| Three-month typical volume | 122.0 million |
| Market capitalization | $1.73 trillion |
Nasdaq’s live data indicated the stock was trading close to its session low. Shares were down 7.5% from the 50-day moving average and off 41.8% from the 52-week peak.
| Share-supply comparison | Amount | Investor context |
|---|---|---|
| August 20 unlock | About 320.0 million shares | Upcoming tranche |
| Three-month average volume | 122.0 million shares | Unlock matches 2.62 days of trading |
| Tuesday volume at 14:30 EDT | 81.7 million shares | Unlock is 3.92 times that volume |
| IPO shares sold, including option | 638.9 million shares | Unlock accounts for 50.1% of IPO shares |
Being eligible does not guarantee shares will be sold right away. However, the overall amount is significant. According to Barron’s, the August 20 unlock applies to roughly 7% of restricted stock. SpaceX issued 555.6 million shares at its IPO, with an additional 83.3 million-share underwriter option.
Operating performance presents an additional incentive for investors to remain interested. Revenue for the second quarter climbed 92% to $7.81 billion, surpassing the analyst forecast of $6.93 billion. The company reported a loss of $541 million, and capital expenditures totaled $18.37 billion.
| Second-quarter performance | Reported | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81 billion | $6.93 billion forecast |
| Revenue growth year-on-year | 92% | Almost doubled |
| Loss per share | $0.09 | $0.26 projected loss |
| Net loss | $541 million | $1.0 billion loss same period last year |
| Capital expenditure | $18.37 billion | Exceeds double the quarter’s revenue |
The result was accompanied by a significant funding requirement. Capital spending amounted to roughly 2.35 times the quarterly revenue. This ratio links the company’s valuation to anticipated gains from AI infrastructure rather than present profits.
| Second-quarter business mix | Revenue | Share of segment total |
|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Starlink leading | $4.29 billion | 54.9% |
| AI | $2.56 billion | 32.8% |
| Space operations | $962 million | 12.3% |
Connectivity was still the biggest segment. Nearly one-third of the division’s revenue came from AI, which also accounted for the bulk of capital expenditure. Space operations made up the lowest portion of revenue.
The bar for the near term has been raised significantly by management. SpaceX is aiming for an annualised revenue run-rate of $100 billion by December, up from just above $30 billion at present. Chief Executive Elon Musk described the objective as “very achievable.” Financial Times
Analysts are split in their views. The consensus stands at Moderate Buy with an average price target of $229. Alongside 27 buy-equivalent recommendations, there are also eight holds and five sells.
| Selected analyst recommendations | Date | Rating | Target | Return from $131.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | July 23 | Hold | $115 | -12.4% |
| Piper Sandler | August 5 | Neutral | $140 | +6.6% |
| Argus | August 7 | Buy | $160 | +21.8% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | August 5 | Overweight | $246 | +87.3% |
| Needham | August 5 | Buy | $250 | +90.4% |
| 40-analyst consensus | August 11 | Moderate Buy | $229 | +74.4% |
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas presented a positive outlook, stating: “SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.” Jonas also described the company’s current valuation as an appealing entry point. Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg
Risks: AI investment could stay elevated for some time before generating profits. Insider share sales might further increase the available float. Any execution issues at Starship or Starlink could undermine the growth outlook.
The next key date is August 20. Should buyers take up the 320 million shares becoming eligible without seeing a significant discount, the dip below $135 on Tuesday could be short-lived. If selling intensifies, the stock faces the task of absorbing a volume equal to 2.6 average trading days.
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