Published: December 9, 2025
Key Takeaways
- Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading around $185.55, up roughly 1.7% today, as investors react to a U.S. decision allowing exports of H200 AI chips to China under strict conditions.
- The White House will permit shipments of H200 processors to “approved” Chinese customers, while taking a 25% cut of related revenue and keeping tighter limits on Nvidia’s most powerful chips. [1]
- Beijing is expected to restrict domestic access to those H200 chips, potentially capping Nvidia’s China upside even as U.S. export rules ease. [2]
- Nvidia just posted record quarterly revenue of $57.0 billion and guided to $65 billion next quarter, with demand for AI data‑center GPUs still outstripping supply. [3]
- Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish with consensus 12‑month price targets near $250–260 (about 30–40% upside), but Trefis warns that rich valuations could see NVDA fall toward $133 in a downside scenario. [4]
Nvidia Stock Today: Price, Performance and Market Context
As of around 12:53 UTC on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, Nvidia shares trade near $185.55, up about 1.7% on the day, according to real‑time quote data. Trefis notes the stock recently hit a high of about $207.04 in late October, meaning NVDA now sits roughly 10% below that peak. [5]
Despite the recent pullback, Nvidia is still up nearly 40% year to date, handily beating the S&P 500’s ~16% gain over the same period. [6] With a market capitalisation around $4.5 trillion, Nvidia remains one of the most valuable companies on the planet. [7]
Broader markets are also firm. U.S. stock futures held steady to slightly higher earlier today as traders digested the Nvidia export decision and awaited a key Federal Reserve rate‑cut decision, leaving the S&P 500 within about 1% of record highs. [8]
Trump’s H200 Green Light: The Policy Shock Moving NVDA
What the U.S. Just Approved
On Monday night, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will allow Nvidia to export its H200 AI accelerators—the company’s second‑most powerful data‑center chips—to approved customers in China and other countries. This partially reverses earlier Biden‑era restrictions that had effectively banned Nvidia’s most advanced AI processors from the Chinese market. [9]
Key points of the new framework:
- Exports are limited to H200‑class chips; more powerful lines such as Blackwell and future Rubin GPUs remain restricted for China. [10]
- Customers in China must be vetted and approved by the U.S. Commerce Department. [11]
- The U.S. government will receive a 25% share of revenue from H200 sales to China—an unusually direct financial arrangement between Washington and a public company. [12]
Nvidia issued a statement applauding the move and framing it as a “thoughtful balance” between national security and economic opportunity, after months of lobbying to reopen the Chinese market. [13]
How China Is Responding
The positive headline comes with a big caveat. According to Reuters, Chinese regulators are discussing ways to permit only limited access to the H200 chips. [14] Beijing’s goal appears to be:
- Allow some use of Nvidia’s second‑tier AI chips,
- While still curbing reliance on U.S. technology and supporting domestic AI hardware efforts. [15]
That means the China opportunity is back on the table—but not fully. The Economic Times notes that China previously accounted for roughly 20–25% of Nvidia’s data‑center revenue, underscoring how significant a partial reopening could be, even under constraints. [16]
Market Reaction: Relief, but Not Euphoria
Nvidia shares:
- Jumped up to 2% in premarket trading after the export news broke,
- Then pared some gains after reports that Beijing would restrict access to the chips, and were last seen up about 0.6–2% depending on the time snapshot. [17]
Rival chip stocks AMD and Intel also gained modestly, as Trump indicated similar export carve‑outs could apply to other semiconductor makers. [18]
At the same time, the policy is politically controversial. Coverage in The Guardian notes that some U.S. lawmakers are warning the move could embolden China’s surveillance and military capacities, and have questioned the legality of the federal government taking a revenue share from chip sales. [19]
Fundamentals: Nvidia’s AI Engine Keeps Redlining
Today’s policy news lands on top of extraordinary fundamentals.
Record Q3 FY26 and Aggressive Guidance
On November 19, 2025, Nvidia reported results for Q3 fiscal 2026 (ended October 26):
- Revenue: $57.0 billion, up 22% quarter‑over‑quarter and 62% year‑on‑year
- Data Center revenue: $51.2 billion, up 25% QoQ and 66% YoY
- Non‑GAAP gross margin: ~73.6%
- Diluted EPS (GAAP and non‑GAAP):$1.30, up about 60–67% year‑on‑year [20]
For Q4 FY26, Nvidia guided to:
- $65.0 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%
- Gross margins around 75%, plus or minus 50 basis points [21]
The company also highlighted:
- Massive orders for its Blackwell data‑center GPUs, which are effectively sold out,
- A broadening set of partnerships with OpenAI, Microsoft, Google Cloud, Oracle, xAI and others to build large‑scale AI infrastructure,
- New product families such as Rubin CPX, NVQLink (quantum‑connected GPUs), and next‑generation networking and supercomputing platforms. [22]
Explosive Full‑Year Earnings
A recent analysis from The Motley Fool (via Nasdaq) notes that in the latest fiscal year:
- Nvidia’s revenue surged 114% to about $130 billion,
- Net income climbed 145% to roughly $72 billion. [23]
Another article cites CEO Jensen Huang as saying the company has “visibility to a half‑trillion dollars” in revenue through 2026, underscoring how deep management believes the demand pipeline is. [24]
Taken together, Nvidia remains in hyper‑growth mode even at a multi‑trillion‑dollar scale.
Wall Street’s View: Mostly “Strong Buy,” One Loud Skeptic
Consensus Targets Around $250–260
According to data compiled by StockAnalysis, 39 analysts currently cover Nvidia:
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: about $248.64
- Implied upside: ~34% from today’s price
- Target range:$100 (low) to $352 (high) [25]
A separate breakdown from 24/7 Wall St. puts the median one‑year target even higher at roughly $257.66, implying around 39% upside from current levels. [26]
Major Price‑Target Hikes After Q3
A Business Insider roundup showcases how aggressively some firms have raised their targets after Nvidia’s Q3 blowout and Q4 guidance: [27]
- Morningstar: Fair‑value estimate lifted to $240 per share from $225, while still calling the stock undervalued.
- Jefferies: Base‑case target raised to $250, with an upside scenario that envisions $300 per share if Nvidia maintains dominant AI‑data‑center share.
- Truist: Target increased to $255, arguing that bubble fears are overblown given ongoing GPU utilisation and demand.
- Melius Research: Target boosted to $320, citing over $500 billion in “revenue visibility” tied to Blackwell and Rubin orders and expecting Nvidia to eventually join a $6 trillion‑plus market‑cap club if AI spending trends hold.
Separately, Citi maintains a “Buy” rating and $270 price target, emphasising that emerging trends in AI model architectures should continue to support Nvidia’s GPUs and ecosystem. [28]
Bernstein has reiterated an “outperform” rating as well, highlighting a substantial, multi‑year opportunity in AI‑driven data centers as a core reason for its bullish stance. [29]
Trefis: “Risky,” With Possible Slide to $133
By contrast, a December 9 note from Trefis stands out as notably cautious. [30] Their key arguments:
- Fair value estimate: about $153 per share, versus a market price around $185–186—roughly 17% downside.
- They consider Nvidia’s valuation “Very High,” pointing to:
- Price‑to‑sales: ~24.8 vs 3.2 for the S&P 500
- P/E: ~46.8 vs 23.3 for the S&P 500
- Price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow: ~60 vs ~20 for the index [31]
- On the other hand, they rate Nvidia’s growth, profitability and operating performance as “Very Strong.”
- Trefis labels the stock’s overall profile “Risky”, arguing that a drop toward $133 “may not be out of reach” if sentiment or growth expectations reset. [32]
This makes Trefis the most prominent high‑profile skeptic in today’s batch of research, serving as a counterweight to the dominant bullish narrative.
2025–2030 Forecasts: How High Could NVDA Go?
24/7 Wall St.: Base Case Up ~70% by 2030
In a detailed price‑prediction report dated December 9, 24/7 Wall St. lays out a multi‑year model for Nvidia’s earnings and share price: [33]
- 2025 target: ~$233 (about 26% above today’s price)
- 2026 target: ~$300 (about 62% upside)
- 2030 target: ~$318 (around 72% upside)
Their model assumes revenue growing from about $121 billion in 2025 to roughly $266 billion by 2030, with EPS climbing from $2.75 to $7.24 and a P/E of 50 anchoring the base‑case valuation. Under a more aggressive P/E of 70, they see a high‑end 2030 price north of $500, while a low‑end scenario with a P/E of 30 yields a 2030 price near $217. [34]
Motley Fool via Nasdaq: “Breeze Past $300” in 2026?
A separate December 7 analysis by The Motley Fool (hosted on Nasdaq) argues Nvidia stock could “breeze past $300” in 2026. [35] Key points:
- Management guidance suggests Nvidia is on track for about $212 billion in revenue in the current fiscal year. [36]
- Wall Street consensus calls for revenue to jump another 48% to around $313 billion in fiscal 2027 (starting February 2026), with EPS forecast near $7.46. [37]
- At today’s valuation, the author calculates that NVDA would need to rally more than 80% just to maintain its current P/E if those earnings materialise, implying a share price in the mid‑$300s could be consistent with the existing multiple. [38]
The same article also notes that Nvidia has repeatedly outperformed its own guidance and analyst estimates over the past two years, as demand for AI GPUs has consistently exceeded expectations. [39]
Other Recent Analyses
Two other Motley Fool pieces syndicated by Nasdaq add nuance: [40]
- “Will Nvidia Crush the Market Again in 2026?”
- Acknowledges rising competition from AMD, Broadcom, and in‑house chips like Alphabet’s TPUs, but concludes that Nvidia’s GPUs remain sold out and that alternative vendors may be filling gaps rather than displacing Nvidia outright. [41]
- “Should You Buy Nvidia Before 2026? The Evidence Is Piling Up, and It Says This.”
- Highlights that revenue jumped 114% to $130 billion and net income 145% to $72 billion in the latest fiscal year, but flags concerns about a potential AI bubble and the sustainability of Nvidia’s sky‑high valuation. [42]
Why AI Data Centers Still Dominate the Story
A fresh article from 24/7 Wall St. titled “Wall Street is Pounding the Table Over Carvana, Nvidia and Five Below” underlines how central AI data centers are to the Nvidia thesis. [43]
Citing Bernstein and external research, it notes:
- The U.S. currently has around 3,000 data centers, and AI workloads will demand dramatically more capacity. [44]
- McKinsey estimates that AI infrastructure investments could reach $5.2 trillion by 2030, with AI‑ready data‑center capacity needing to grow at roughly 33% annually between 2023 and 2030. [45]
CEO Jensen Huang has likewise suggested that global data‑center operators could be spending up to $4 trillion per year by 2030 on infrastructure to handle AI workloads, a large portion of which would be directed toward GPUs and related systems. [46]
On the technology roadmap:
- Blackwell Ultra GPUs are already in volume production and deliver massive efficiency gains over earlier Hopper‑generation chips. [47]
- Nvidia plans to launch a new Rubin architecture in 2026, which some analysts estimate could be more than three times as powerful as Blackwell for certain workloads—potentially a ~165x performance increase versus 2022‑era Hopper in select configurations. [48]
This combination of exploding demand, constrained supply and rapid performance leaps is the backbone of most bullish NVDA forecasts.
Key Risks: Regulation, Competition and Valuation
Even the most optimistic forecasts come with important caveats.
1. Geopolitics and Export Controls
The H200 decision doesn’t end policy risk; it reframes it:
- The U.S. approval is conditional and could be tightened or revoked if political winds change. [49]
- China is preparing to limit domestic firms’ access to H200 chips, which may significantly restrict Nvidia’s ability to rebuild Chinese market share. [50]
- The deal does not cover Nvidia’s next‑generation Blackwell or Rubin chips, which are expected to drive much of its profitability later in the decade. [51]
In the U.S., lawmakers across the aisle have expressed concerns about both the national‑security implications of selling high‑end AI hardware to China and the precedent of the federal government taking a direct financial cut of private‑sector deals. That political scrutiny adds a layer of uncertainty to the longevity and scope of the arrangement. [52]
2. Rising Competition
Nvidia remains the clear leader in AI accelerators, but competitors are no longer standing still:
- AMD has landed a major partnership with OpenAI to supply 6 gigawatts of computing power, while Nvidia’s own OpenAI deal is for 10 gigawatts. [53]
- Broadcom and others are designing custom ASICs for hyperscalers, and Alphabet has been rolling out its own Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) across Google data centers, reportedly exploring selling some to Meta Platforms, one of Nvidia’s large customers. [54]
Several analysts stress that overall AI demand may be large enough that Nvidia, AMD and in‑house solutions can all grow, but a sustained shift toward custom chips could erode Nvidia’s share of the most profitable workloads over time. [55]
3. Valuation and AI Bubble Concerns
Valuation is the crux of the bear case:
- Trefis calculates that Nvidia trades at roughly 25x sales and 47x earnings, about 2x the S&P 500 on those metrics, while still calling its growth and profitability “Very Strong.” [56]
- Motley Fool writers on Nasdaq explicitly discuss AI bubble fears, noting that even small disappointments in growth could cause investors to reassess whether Nvidia’s earnings justify its premium multiples. [57]
A MarketWatch column re‑published by Morningstar goes further, warning that investors who only own Nvidia may be over‑concentrated in a single, high‑beta name and miss out on diversification benefits from other sectors. [58]
What Today’s Developments Mean for Nvidia Shareholders
Pulling the threads together:
- Policy risk has eased, but not vanished. The U.S. decision to allow H200 exports under strict conditions reduces one of the biggest overhangs on Nvidia’s China story, yet Beijing’s own planned restrictions and ongoing scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers mean the landscape could shift again. [59]
- Fundamentals remain exceptional. Record revenue, ultra‑high margins, a sold‑out data‑center product line and multi‑year infrastructure deals underpin the bulls’ view that Nvidia will continue to be the central arms dealer of the AI boom. [60]
- Expectations are sky‑high. Consensus and independent models alike now routinely pencil in $250–300+ price targets and hundreds of billions in annual revenue, while some forecasts extend to 2030 with scenarios north of $500 per share. [61]
- Downside scenarios are real. Trefis’s $153 fair value and talk of a potential slide toward $133 underscore the risk that any slowdown in AI spending, competitive surprise, or policy reversal could lead to a sharp valuation reset. [62]
In practical terms, Nvidia remains a high‑growth, high‑volatility AI bellwether. Short‑term traders will watch closely for:
- Further details on U.S.–China export rules,
- This week’s Federal Reserve decision and its impact on risk appetite,
- Any signs that AI infrastructure orders are accelerating or slowing. [63]
Long‑term investors will be focused on whether Nvidia can:
- Maintain its technological lead through Blackwell, Rubin and beyond,
- Convert today’s enormous order backlog and “revenue visibility” into sustained free‑cash‑flow growth,
- Navigate geopolitics and competition without eroding margins or market share. [64]
Important Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Nvidia stock can be highly volatile and may not be appropriate for all investors. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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