NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is closing out the week at the center of two storylines that tend to move its stock the most: AI demand and geopolitics. Heading into the weekend of December 20, 2025, Nvidia shares are around $180.99 (latest available trade/close), after a strong end to the week that left the company once again dominating headlines across markets, tech, and policy. [1]
Just as importantly for investors, the latest news cycle isn’t only about new GPUs. It’s about the rules that govern where those chips can go, how customers might access them, and how Nvidia is reinforcing its strategic moat with software, partnerships, and supply-chain moves.
Below is a comprehensive, publication-ready roundup of the key news, analyst forecasts, and market analysis shaping Nvidia stock as of Dec. 20, 2025.
What’s moving NVIDIA stock right now
Nvidia’s near-term narrative has sharpened into a push-and-pull between:
- Potentially expanded China revenue opportunity (via renewed review of H200 export licensing), and
- Renewed political and national-security scrutiny (including loopholes like cross-border cloud access). [2]
At the same time, Wall Street remains focused on whether Nvidia can sustain its AI growth trajectory through 2026—especially as it ramps the Blackwell generation while previewing what comes next.
Headline risk and upside: U.S. review that could reopen Nvidia H200 shipments to China
The most market-sensitive Nvidia story this week came from Washington.
Reuters reported that the Trump administration has launched an interagency review that could lead to the first shipments to China of Nvidia’s H200—its “second-most powerful” AI chips—delivering on the president’s pledge to allow those sales. [3]
Key points investors are tracking:
- Trump said sales would come with the U.S. government collecting a 25% fee, and argued the policy helps U.S. firms stay ahead of Chinese rivals by reducing demand for Chinese chips. [4]
- Reuters reports the Commerce Department sent license applications for review by the State, Energy, and Defense departments. [5]
- Those agencies have 30 days to weigh in, and Reuters notes the final decision rests with Trump under the regulations. [6]
- The move has drawn criticism from China hawks concerned advanced chips could boost China’s military and AI capabilities. [7]
For NVDA stock, this matters because China-related revenue has been one of the biggest swing factors in sentiment: any reopening of high-end shipments can change near-term revenue expectations, while any backlash can increase regulatory uncertainty.
A related expert view highlighted in the Reuters piece came from a Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow (and former White House NSC official), who argued large-scale exports would be a “significant strategic mistake,” calling advanced chips “the one thing holding China back in AI.” [8]
Another China angle: Report says Tencent is accessing restricted Nvidia chips via cloud
Even as U.S. policymakers debate whether to allow certain Nvidia chips into China, another story underscores how cloud computing can blur export lines.
Barron’s reported that Tencent has reportedly gained access to restricted Nvidia Blackwell AI chips via cloud services run by Tokyo-based Datasection, with projects tied to data centers in Osaka and Sydney—a setup described as exploiting a loophole: bans on Chinese ownership of certain hardware don’t necessarily prevent remote usage through data centers in allied countries. [9]
Why this is material for Nvidia stock:
- If cloud-based access becomes a major pathway, it could influence how regulators rewrite rules—and how Nvidia’s international customers architect deployments.
- It also intensifies the conversation about chip traceability, usage controls, and compliance tech.
Which leads directly to the next catalyst…
Nvidia’s answer to smuggling and compliance pressure: “location verification” tech
Earlier this month, Reuters reported Nvidia confirmed it has built location verification technology that could indicate which country its chips are operating in—intended to help prevent AI chips being smuggled into restricted countries. [10]
According to Reuters:
- The feature would be a customer-installed software option and would leverage GPU telemetry and confidential computing capabilities. [11]
- Nvidia said it is implementing a software service to help data center operators monitor health and inventory of GPU fleets using read-only telemetry. [12]
- Nvidia also emphasized there is “no kill switch” and no feature allowing Nvidia to remotely disable GPUs. [13]
- The feature is expected to be available first on Blackwell chips, per Reuters’ reporting. [14]
For NVDA investors, this is more than a compliance footnote: it signals Nvidia is trying to shape the regulatory environment with technical safeguards that could preserve global demand while addressing government concerns.
Intel partnership update: U.S. antitrust agencies clear Nvidia’s $5B investment
Another major Dec. 19 headline: Reuters said U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, citing a notice posted by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission. [15]
This matters because it removes a key closing hurdle for a deal that has broader strategic implications for CPUs, AI infrastructure, and the U.S. semiconductor supply chain.
What Nvidia and Intel agreed to (and why it’s strategically important)
Nvidia and Intel announced in September that they would collaborate to develop custom data center and PC products connected via NVIDIA NVLink, combining Nvidia’s accelerated computing platform with Intel’s x86 ecosystem. [16]
From Nvidia’s own press release:
- Nvidia will invest $5 billion in Intel common stock at a purchase price of $23.28 per share, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. [17]
- For data centers, Intel will build NVIDIA-custom x86 CPUs that Nvidia will integrate into its AI infrastructure platforms. [18]
- For PCs, Intel will build x86 SoCs that integrate NVIDIA RTX GPU chiplets. [19]
Why markets care: This is a rare high-profile partnership between two companies that historically competed across parts of the compute stack—and it potentially reshapes competitive dynamics versus rivals like AMD (a point Reuters also flagged in broader deal coverage). [20]
Fundamentals: Nvidia’s latest results and the company’s official outlook
While policy headlines can swing the stock short-term, Nvidia’s fundamentals remain anchored in the pace of AI infrastructure spending.
In its Q3 fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended Oct. 26, 2025), Nvidia reported:
- Record revenue of $57.0 billion (up 22% quarter-over-quarter, up 62% year-over-year) [21]
- Record Data Center revenue of $51.2 billion (up 25% quarter-over-quarter, up 66% year-over-year) [22]
- GAAP and non-GAAP EPS of $1.30 [23]
Nvidia’s Q4 fiscal 2026 guidance (a key forecast investors still use)
In the same release, Nvidia forecast for Q4 fiscal 2026:
- Revenue expected to be $65.0 billion ±2% [24]
- GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins expected around 74.8% / 75.0% (±50 basis points) [25]
- GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses expected at approximately $6.7B / $5.0B [26]
The company also disclosed a $0.01 per share dividend payable Dec. 26, 2025 to shareholders of record on Dec. 4, 2025, and noted remaining share repurchase authorization. [27]
Analyst outlook: “Nvidia stock looks cheap,” with $275 targets from multiple firms
In the latest analyst commentary highlighted by Investor’s Business Daily, two prominent takes stood out:
- Truist’s William Stein raised his Nvidia price target to $275 (from $255) and kept a buy rating, while acknowledging infrastructure constraints like power and funding. [28]
- Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon reiterated an “outperform” view with a $275 target and argued Nvidia looked historically cheap versus the SOX index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) on certain valuation measures. [29]
IBD also noted Nvidia stock gained 3.9% to close at $180.99 in that session. [30]
Consensus forecasts: where Wall Street targets cluster for NVDA in 2026
Across widely followed analyst-consensus trackers, the big picture remains consistent: bullish ratings dominate, and average price targets imply meaningful upside from current levels—though target ranges are wide.
For example, StockAnalysis.com reports:
- 39 analysts covering Nvidia with a consensus rating of “Strong Buy”
- An average 12‑month price target of $252.49 (with a range from $100 to $352) [31]
Investors should treat these as directional sentiment indicators, not guarantees—but they help explain why dips in Nvidia often attract buyers: many institutions still model Nvidia as the primary “picks-and-shovels” beneficiary of AI infrastructure expansion.
Strategic expansion beyond hardware: open-source AI models and HPC software
Nvidia has also been busy strengthening the software and ecosystem layers that make its hardware stickier.
Nemotron 3: Nvidia pushes open-source models as competition rises
Reuters reported Nvidia unveiled the third generation of its Nemotron large-language models aimed at writing, coding, and other tasks:
- Nemotron 3 Nano released first
- Two larger versions planned for the first half of 2026 [32]
Reuters framed the move as a response to growing open-source offerings from Chinese AI labs, while positioning Nvidia as a prominent U.S. provider in the open model ecosystem. [33]
Slurm and SchedMD: Nvidia deepens control of the AI factory “scheduler” layer
On Dec. 15, Nvidia announced it acquired SchedMD, the leading developer of Slurm, an open-source workload manager widely used to schedule jobs across large compute clusters. [34]
In Nvidia’s blog post:
- Nvidia said it will continue to develop and distribute Slurm as open-source and vendor-neutral software. [35]
- Nvidia noted Slurm is used in more than half of the top 10 and top 100 systems in the TOP500 supercomputer list. [36]
For NVDA stock, these moves reinforce the “AI factory” thesis: the more Nvidia owns the full stack—from GPUs to networking to cluster scheduling and model tooling—the harder it becomes for customers to swap out the platform.
The next big date for NVDA investors: Nvidia’s Feb. 25, 2026 earnings event
The next major scheduled catalyst is Nvidia’s 4th Quarter FY26 Financial Results, listed on the company’s investor relations events calendar for February 25, 2026. [37]
Between now and then, investors will likely focus on:
- Any update on China licensing outcomes for H200 (and whether policy shifts again)
- How quickly Blackwell supply expands, given Nvidia’s prior statements about demand and sellouts
- Whether new partnerships (like Intel) translate into concrete product timelines and margin impact [38]
Risks to watch: what could derail Nvidia stock’s momentum
Even in a bullish AI market, Nvidia’s risk list is unusually headline-driven:
- Export controls and geopolitical reversals
The H200 review process underscores that policy can change quickly, and the final decision sits at the top of the administration. [39] - Regulatory tightening around cloud access
If reports like Tencent’s cross-border access intensify pressure for rule changes, customers could face friction in deployment plans. [40] - Execution risk in the “full-stack” expansion
Buying key software infrastructure (SchedMD) and releasing models (Nemotron 3) strengthens Nvidia’s ecosystem—but also expands the surface area for integration and competition. [41] - Expectations risk
Nvidia’s own forecast for Q4 revenue ($65B ±2%) sets a high bar, and markets often punish even slight disappointments when expectations are elevated. [42]
Bottom line
As of Dec. 20, 2025, Nvidia stock is being driven by a rare combination of massive fundamentals and policy-level catalysts:
- A U.S. review that could reopen a pathway for H200 shipments to China (with a proposed 25% fee mechanism)
- A cleared regulatory path for Nvidia’s $5B Intel investment, adding fuel to a deep CPU/GPU platform partnership
- Continued stack expansion across open models and HPC scheduling, reinforcing Nvidia’s role as the operating system of the AI data center [43]
Wall Street’s target prices suggest many analysts still see NVDA’s current price as a compelling entry relative to their growth models—but the next leg up may hinge less on GPU specs and more on export policy outcomes, compliance mechanics, and the pace of global AI infrastructure buildouts. [44]
References
1. www.investors.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 17. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 18. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 19. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 22. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 23. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 24. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 25. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 26. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 27. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 28. www.investors.com, 29. www.investors.com, 30. www.investors.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. blogs.nvidia.com, 35. blogs.nvidia.com, 36. blogs.nvidia.com, 37. investor.nvidia.com, 38. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.barrons.com, 41. blogs.nvidia.com, 42. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.investors.com
