NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) ended Friday, December 19, 2025, with a strong rebound that put the AI bellwether back in the spotlight heading into the final holiday stretch of the year. Shares surged during the regular session and then steadied after the closing bell as investors digested a fast-moving mix of Washington policy headlines, regulatory developments tied to Intel, and a wave of bullish analyst commentary.
One important calendar note: U.S. stock markets are closed on Saturday (Dec. 20) and Sunday (Dec. 21). The next regular session begins Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, at 9:30 a.m. ET.
NVDA after-hours check: where NVIDIA stock stands after the bell
NVDA finished the day firmly higher and held near those levels in early post-market trading.
As of 5:05 p.m. ET (22:05 UTC), NVIDIA stock traded around $180.99, up $6.71 (+3.85%) on the day. The session saw an intraday high of $181.25 and a low of $175.57, with trading volume around 323.4 million shares—an eye-catching number even for a mega-cap that often dominates turnover.
After-hours moves can be noisy—especially on a Friday—so traders typically watch whether the stock holds key levels into Monday’s pre-market rather than over-interpreting small prints in extended trading.
The biggest catalyst: U.S. review that could reopen Nvidia’s H200 sales to China
The headline that set the tone for NVDA on Friday was a Reuters report that the Trump administration has launched an inter-agency review that could pave the way for the first shipments of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China—a potential reversal from Biden-era restrictions and a major swing factor for NVIDIA’s China-linked revenue outlook. [1]
Here’s what matters most from that report:
- The U.S. Commerce Department has reportedly sent Nvidia’s license applications for review to State, Energy, and Defense. [2]
- Those agencies typically have 30 days to weigh in, but the final decision rests with President Trump, per Reuters. [3]
- Trump has framed the policy as allowing sales while the U.S. government collects a 25% fee, arguing it helps keep U.S. companies ahead and reduces incentives for Chinese firms to accelerate domestic substitutes. [4]
- The idea has drawn political and national-security pushback, with critics warning that advanced AI chips could strengthen China’s military and AI capabilities. [5]
Why the market cared: the H200 sits just below NVIDIA’s newest Blackwell lineup, but it remains a high-value AI accelerator. Any credible path to resumed China shipments—especially if it becomes a repeatable licensing process—could affect forward demand assumptions, utilization of NVIDIA’s supply chain capacity, and investor confidence in 2026 growth.
What to watch before Monday’s open:
- Whether there are any additional signals out of Commerce, the White House, or Congress over the weekend (support, opposition, timing, or new conditions).
- Whether the “25% fee” concept becomes more specific (how it’s calculated, who pays, how it’s administered).
- Whether China-side policy becomes a constraint: Barron’s notes it’s uncertain whether Chinese regulators will allow H200 purchases and that Beijing has been considering restrictions on access. [6]
Second tailwind: FTC clears NVIDIA’s $5 billion Intel investment
Another positive headline for the tape: Reuters reported that U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, based on a notice posted by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission. [7]
Nvidia previously announced it would invest $5 billion in Intel—a deal that has been watched closely because it links two of America’s most strategically important chip companies at a time when industrial policy and supply-chain security are front-page issues. [8]
Why it matters for NVDA investors:
- Clearance removes a regulatory “overhang” and allows the market to focus on the operational implications (partnership scope, roadmap alignment, supply dynamics, and competitive positioning).
- It adds another storyline that NVIDIA is not just selling chips, but shaping the broader AI compute ecosystem—manufacturing capacity, partnerships, and platform adoption.
Analyst forecasts and valuation talk: “cheap NVDA” became the narrative again
Friday also delivered a cluster of analyst-driven fuel—important because NVIDIA’s stock has recently been hypersensitive to changes in the “AI spending” narrative.
Big upgrades and price targets hitting the tape
Several widely-circulated notes pointed to valuation as the key support:
- Truist raised its NVIDIA price target to $275 (from $255) and kept a bullish stance, according to reporting that was echoed across market coverage. [9]
- Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon argued NVIDIA looks “unusually cheap” on forward valuation measures and relative to the semiconductor index, per coverage. [10]
- Tigress Financial lifted its price target to $350 and reiterated a “Strong Buy,” according to multiple market reports. [11]
MarketBeat also summarized the Street backdrop as a broad “Buy”-leaning consensus with an average price target around $262, while noting unusually heavy volume on Friday. [12]
Why this matters heading into Monday
When NVIDIA is trading on “multiple compression” rather than near-term earnings revisions, valuation narratives can become self-reinforcing:
- If investors accept the idea that NVDA is “cheap” relative to its own history and the SOX, dip-buying tends to show up faster.
- If investors reject that premise—especially if Washington policy risk rises—multiple compression can continue even if fundamentals remain strong.
This is why Monday’s action may depend less on charts and more on headlines: any new detail on China export licensing could either validate the bullish thesis (bigger addressable market) or revive the bear case (policy volatility = lower multiple).
The geopolitical overhang: China access stories are back in focus
Beyond official export policy, another storyline making rounds today: Barron’s reported that China’s Tencent may be accessing high-end NVIDIA Blackwell chips via cloud services outside China, prompting renewed scrutiny about whether cloud-based access creates an export-control “loophole.” [13]
Even if arrangements are structured to comply with current rules, stories like this can:
- Intensify Washington attention on enforcement mechanisms (not just shipment bans).
- Increase the odds of rule changes that impact how NVIDIA (and its customers) deliver compute internationally.
In other words, policy risk isn’t only about whether chips ship to China—it’s also about how AI compute is provisioned globally.
Triple witching amplified Friday’s tape (and could distort what “volume” means)
Friday’s session also coincided with record “triple witching” dynamics—options and futures expirations that can mechanically amplify volume and short-term price moves.
A Bloomberg markets wrap syndicated by SWI swissinfo.ch highlighted that stock transactions spiked amid triple witching, with estimates around $7.1 trillion in notional open interest expiring. The piece explicitly noted Nvidia led gains in megacaps during the move. [14]
Practical takeaway: the strong close is real, but some of the day’s intensity (volume, abrupt swings, late-day pushes) may reflect positioning and expiration mechanics, not just fundamental conviction.
What to know before the next market open (Monday, Dec. 22)
Here are the key things investors and traders typically watch for NVDA between now and Monday’s opening bell:
1) Weekend headline risk around China export licensing
This is the #1 near-term driver. The market will be sensitive to:
- Any confirmation/denial or new detail on the inter-agency review timeline.
- Signs of Congressional pressure or national-security objections gaining traction.
- Any reporting about China potentially restricting H200 access domestically. [15]
2) Follow-through (or fade) after triple witching
With expiration behind the market, Monday can reveal whether:
- Friday’s bid was “real money” accumulation, or
- a positioning/derivatives-driven burst that cools quickly.
3) Holiday trading schedule matters next week
Liquidity can thin out quickly in the final full week before Christmas. Markets are scheduled to close early on Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET) and be closed on Dec. 25, per Nasdaq’s holiday calendar. [16]
And despite a federal office closure directive, Reuters reported that major U.S. exchanges plan to remain open on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 following their original schedules. [17]
4) Macro calendar: “light Monday,” more on Tuesday
If you’re trying to gauge the risk of a macro surprise hitting NVDA at the open, Monday looks comparatively quiet on many calendars—but the week is still shaped by delayed and rescheduled releases following the government shutdown.
Notably, the BEA announced that personal income and outlays data updates will be released alongside the initial estimate of Q3 2025 GDP on Tuesday, Dec. 23, at 8:30 a.m. ET. [18]
(That kind of data can move yields—and yields can move mega-cap tech multiples.)
5) The next major NVIDIA date: earnings on Feb. 25, 2026
The next “hard catalyst” for NVIDIA itself is its next earnings event: NVIDIA’s 4th Quarter FY26 financial results are scheduled for Feb. 25, 2026, per NVIDIA’s investor events calendar. [19]
Between now and then, the stock’s biggest swings may come from:
- export-policy headlines,
- customer capex sentiment (cloud and enterprise),
- and analyst expectation shifts.
Bottom line for NVDA heading into Monday
NVIDIA stock heads into the weekend with momentum after a roughly 4% jump and a steady early after-hours read. The rally was powered by a rare combination of (1) potential reopening of a crucial market (China) via H200 licensing review, (2) a cleared regulatory path for NVIDIA’s Intel investment, and (3) a surge in “valuation is cheap” commentary backed by higher targets.
But the same theme that lifted the stock—geopolitics and policy—can also add volatility. If investors get clarity, NVDA could extend gains. If the weekend brings conflicting signals, Monday could open with a wide range of outcomes.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.swissinfo.ch, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.bea.gov, 19. investor.nvidia.com
