New York, Jan 19, 2026, 09:32 ET — Market closed.
- Nvidia’s shares listed in Europe dropped amid renewed tariff concerns weighing on U.S. tech stocks
- Wolfe Research singled out Nvidia as its leading AI stock for 2026, highlighting a more defined product ramp
- Traders are eyeing chip demand news tied to China as markets prepare to reopen Tuesday
Nvidia shares in Frankfurt dropped 2.2% on Monday, dragged down by slumping U.S. tech stocks in Europe after President Donald Trump signaled fresh tariff threats against European nations. Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.25%. 1
U.S. stock and options markets remain closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, pushing investors to look at futures and overseas trading for clues on chip stock demand. Nvidia’s price action is especially important, serving as a high-beta proxy for AI investment and overall risk appetite. 2
On Friday’s final regular U.S. session, Nvidia slipped 0.5% to close at $186.23. The stock has been stuck near this range for months, with traders reacting more to small news bits than major shifts.
Wolfe Research offered a rare piece of good news, putting Nvidia on its coveted “Alpha List” and naming it the top AI pick for 2026. Analyst Chris Caso noted that “NVDA is up ‘only’ 36% over the past year,” trailing behind several AI-related competitors. 3
Caso attributed the slowdown to “the late launch of Blackwell,” lingering doubts over AI capital spending staying power, and fears Nvidia might lose ground to custom chips. He added those worries are fading now that “Blackwell is ramping fully,” with Rubin still “on track for a 2H26 ramp,” the note said. 3
On the flip side, China is causing headaches. Barron’s, referencing the Financial Times, says production of China-specific H200 chips has come to a halt after Chinese customs blocked shipments. This move adds fresh uncertainty to sales in the region. 4
Wolfe zoomed in on competition, pointing out that “Google’s TPU represents NVDA’s main competition,” while other in-house accelerators haven’t reached similar scale yet. This call is crucial—it gets to whether major cloud clients will stick with Nvidia GPUs or divert budgets to their own hardware. 3
Right now, the macro tape poses the biggest near-term threat. With liquidity thin during the holidays, price swings can be sharper once New York markets reopen. Tariff news tends to strike semiconductors fast, given their central role in global supply chains.
The downside is clear: tighter limits on China-related shipments or a broad risk-off shift triggered by trade tensions might prompt investors to pull back from the most crowded AI trades. And even if no new restrictions hit, the stock could stall if earnings fail to realign with expectations.
Trading picks up Tuesday, with eyes on whether the futures-driven selloff spills into cash markets and if new China chip data triggers updates to 2026 revenue forecasts. Nvidia’s next key milestone is its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report set for Feb. 25. 5
