NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is heading into Christmas Eve with a familiar mix of fuel and friction: a powerful AI demand narrative, a fresh policy twist on China chip exports, and the kind of valuation debate that never sleeps—even when the market calendar tries to. NVDA last traded around $189.21 (up about 3% from the prior close), keeping the stock near the center of the “Magnificent Seven” conversation as investors position for 2026. [1]
The big story underpinning today’s NVIDIA stock chatter is geopolitical and commercial at the same time: Nvidia’s H200 AI chip is back in play for China, but the path from approval to revenue still runs through U.S. licensing, Chinese regulatory decisions, and a rising chorus of lawmakers demanding tougher oversight. [2]
Below is the full roundup of what’s driving NVIDIA stock on 24.12.2025, plus the latest forecasts and the key “watch next” items investors are tracking.
The headline catalyst: H200 shipments to China could start by mid‑February—if Beijing approves
Reuters reported this week that Nvidia has told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping its H200 (its second-most powerful AI chip) to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid‑February. The plan, according to people familiar with the discussions, is to fulfill initial orders from existing inventory—5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, equivalent to roughly 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips. [3]
That’s a meaningful number for two reasons:
- It reopens a market that has been strategically important but politically constrained.
- It tests whether export policy “permission” can actually translate into deliveries and demand amid scrutiny on both sides of the Pacific.
Crucially, Reuters emphasized the uncertainty: Beijing has not yet approved any H200 purchases, and the timeline could shift depending on government decisions. [4]
Nvidia also told Chinese clients it plans to add new production capacity for these chips, with orders for that capacity expected to open in Q2 2026, according to Reuters. [5]
Why the H200 matters (even in a Blackwell world)
The H200 is part of Nvidia’s previous-generation Hopper line, but it remains heavily used in AI. Reuters notes Nvidia has been focusing production on Blackwell and its upcoming Rubin platform, which can make H200 supply relatively scarce—one reason China customers have been watching this storyline closely. [6]
Trump’s export shift: H200 allowed to China—with a 25% fee
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said the United States would allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 to China and collect a 25% fee on such sales, framing it as a balance between national security and commercial leadership in AI chips. [7]
Reuters reported the administration did not spell out how many chips would be authorized or what specific conditions would apply beyond “continued strong national security.” [8]
This matters for NVDA stock because it potentially increases Nvidia’s addressable market in the near term—yet also raises the probability of regulatory whiplash.
Political pushback intensifies: U.S. lawmakers demand visibility into H200 license approvals
On Monday, Reuters reported that two senior Democratic lawmakers—Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Gregory Meeks—asked the U.S. Commerce Department to disclose details and any approvals of ongoing license reviews related to potential H200 sales to Chinese firms. [9]
According to Reuters, the letter sought:
- disclosure of all license applications for H200 exports to Chinese companies, and
- disclosure of any approved licenses within 48 hours of approval,
- plus a briefing before approvals are issued, including an assessment of military potential and allies’ reactions. [10]
For NVDA investors, this is not just political theater. The nearer Nvidia gets to actual shipments, the more the market has to price in:
- the chance of new legislative constraints,
- changing licensing standards, and
- reputational and compliance risk tied to a high-profile national security debate.
A second China-related wrinkle: bundling proposals inside China
Reuters also reported that Chinese officials have debated whether to allow H200 imports, with one proposal being a bundling rule that would require each H200 purchase to be paired with a set ratio of domestic chips. [11]
If adopted, that could reduce the effective demand for Nvidia chips or reshape purchase behavior—important because investors tend to model China revenue as a clean function of policy approval, when it may become a more complex negotiation between industrial policy and commercial necessity.
Trade-policy backdrop: U.S. delays new tariffs on Chinese chips until June 2027
Another semiconductor-policy headline landed late Tuesday: Reuters reported the Trump administration said it will impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports, but delay the action until June 2027, with the tariff rate to be announced at least 30 days in advance. [12]
While that particular tariff timeline is longer-dated, it reinforces a key theme for NVDA: policy is becoming a first-order input to semiconductor valuation, alongside product cycles and customer spending.
Insider activity: Nvidia director Mark Stevens sold roughly $40 million in shares
Adding a classic “is this a signal?” spark to the holiday week, filings show Nvidia director Mark A. Stevens sold 222,500 shares on Dec. 19, 2025, for about $40 million. [13]
Insider sales can mean many things (taxes, diversification, pre-arranged plans), but the market tends to pay extra attention when:
- the stock is near highs,
- momentum is strong, and
- the broader sector is already facing “AI bubble” debates.
The market context on Dec 24: AI spending drives optimism—returns on that spending drive anxiety
Reuters’ year-end market coverage highlights the balancing act investors are carrying into 2026: the U.S. market is ending 2025 with strong gains driven by AI optimism and expectations around rates, but sustaining that performance depends heavily on continued AI investment and whether that investment yields durable earnings growth. [14]
Investopedia echoed the same broad mood: cautious optimism for 2026, paired with growing concern that tech (and AI) valuations have become crowded and that the next leg up requires evidence of real payoff from enormous AI infrastructure spending. [15]
That macro narrative matters for NVDA because Nvidia is both:
- a primary beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildouts, and
- a prime target if investors decide AI spending is peaking or becoming less efficient.
Two separate reports underscore the “follow the money” angle:
- The Financial Times reported that tech groups have shifted significant AI data-center debt off balance sheets—an issue investors are watching for transparency and risk concentration. [16]
- The Wall Street Journal reported that AI construction costs and accounting practices can obscure where profits and risks are ultimately landing. [17]
Even if those stories are not about Nvidia directly, they connect to Nvidia’s demand engine: data centers get built and financed first, GPUs get purchased at scale second.
Technical and sentiment snapshot: “Magnificent Seven” rebound puts NVDA back in focus
MarketWatch reported that Nvidia has been rising for multiple sessions and that technicians are watching potential resistance levels near $196, then $212, and possibly $220 in the weeks ahead, framing the move as a constructive signal for semiconductors and broader tech leadership. [18]
Investor’s Business Daily also pointed to Nvidia as one of the large-cap tech names showing strength as the S&P 500 hovers near record territory during the year-end stretch. [19]
(Technical levels are not fundamentals, but they can influence flows—especially in mega-cap stocks dominated by ETFs and systematic strategies.)
NVIDIA earnings reality check: what the company itself last guided
For investors trying to separate narrative from numbers, Nvidia’s own latest earnings release is still the anchor point.
In its third quarter fiscal 2026 results (reported Nov. 19, 2025), Nvidia reported:
- Revenue: $57.006 billion
- Diluted EPS: $1.30 (GAAP)
- And guided Q4 FY26 revenue to $65.0 billion ±2%. [20]
This is why NVDA remains a market bellwether: the company’s guidance implies a scale of demand that, for now, is still hard to match elsewhere in semiconductors.
NVIDIA stock forecast and analyst price targets: what Wall Street is projecting into 2026
Forecasts are not facts, but they do shape expectations—and expectations move stocks.
Street consensus: targets cluster in the mid‑$200s, highs reach the mid‑$300s
As of this week’s compiled data:
- MarketBeat shows a consensus price target around $262.14, with a high of $352 and a low of $205, and a consensus rating in “Buy” territory based on a large set of analysts. [21]
- StockAnalysis shows an average price target around $252.49, with a high of $352, and consensus labeled “Strong Buy.” [22]
Differences between these aggregators typically come from methodology (which analysts are included, how recently ratings are refreshed, and how firms’ “buy/hold/sell” language is standardized).
A notable bull case: Evercore’s Lipacis sees 86% upside (per TipRanks summary)
TipRanks highlighted Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis raising a price target to $352, implying roughly 86% upside from around $189 per share, citing Nvidia’s continued AI dominance and the expanding availability of Blackwell-based platforms. [23]
Important nuance: that’s one analyst’s bullish scenario, not the whole Street—but the fact that some targets cluster at the $350 level helps explain why “NVDA to new highs” remains a live narrative into 2026.
Fundamental model inputs: revenue/EPS forecasts are still sharply upward (but inherently uncertain)
StockAnalysis’ compiled forecasts (which may blend GAAP and non‑GAAP conventions depending on analyst models) show expectations for strong forward growth—one reason NVDA’s valuation debate remains heated rather than settled. [24]
The bull vs. bear debate for NVDA on Dec 24, 2025
What bulls are betting on
Bulls generally see Nvidia as the “picks-and-shovels” leader of AI:
- Continued hyperscaler and enterprise demand for accelerated computing
- A successful ramp of Blackwell systems and follow-on platforms
- Monetization beyond chips, via the CUDA software ecosystem and full-stack platforms (hardware + networking + software)
Policy easing on China (even partial, even messy) is additive in the bull case, because it expands Nvidia’s reachable demand without requiring a new product category.
What bears (or cautious optimists) worry about
Today’s news flow also spotlights the main risks:
- Export policy volatility
The H200 story is clearly moving, but it’s also attracting scrutiny that could slow approvals or impose conditions. [25] - China-side uncertainty
Even if the U.S. greenlights sales, China may impose constraints (including potential bundling requirements) or discourage adoption for industrial-policy reasons. [26] - AI capex accountability
The market is increasingly focused on whether massive AI infrastructure spending translates into durable profits, not just revenue growth. [27] - “Workarounds” invite new rules
Reports that Chinese firms may access advanced Nvidia chips through foreign cloud services can accelerate regulatory tightening and close loopholes—another way policy can hit demand unexpectedly. [28]
What to watch next for NVIDIA stock
Heading into early 2026, the NVDA checklist is unusually clear:
- Will Beijing approve H200 purchases—and under what conditions? (quotas, bundling, or buyer restrictions) [29]
- How fast will U.S. licensing move, and will Congress attempt to intervene? [30]
- Does the “25% fee” framework remain stable, or does it evolve into broader export policy? [31]
- Do Nvidia’s next earnings and guidance confirm the demand trajectory implied by its recent outlook? [32]
- Does the market’s 2026 optimism hold—or does AI spending come under pressure as investors demand proof of ROI? [33]
Nvidia stock has spent the last two years teaching the market a slightly uncomfortable lesson: fundamentals matter, but policy and plumbing (export rules, financing conditions, and data-center build capacity) matter almost as much. On December 24, 2025, that lesson is back on the front page.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.ft.com, 17. www.wsj.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.investors.com, 20. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.barrons.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 33. www.reuters.com
