NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into the Christmas Eve session with fresh momentum after a strong Tuesday rally in U.S. growth stocks—and with investors still digesting fast-moving headlines around U.S.-China chip policy and the company’s ability to sell advanced AI hardware into China.
After the closing bell on Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025, Nvidia shares finished the regular session at $189.18 and were little changed in after-hours trading (around $189.12–$189.20 shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET), signaling that traders largely held positions rather than chasing or fading the move into the evening. [1]
Tomorrow’s session (Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025) is not a normal trading day: U.S. markets are scheduled for an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET, and Christmas Day (Dec. 25) is a full market holiday—conditions that often amplify price swings because liquidity can thin out quickly. [2]
Below is what moved NVDA today, what the latest headlines mean, and what to keep on your radar before the market opens Wednesday morning.
NVDA stock today: where Nvidia closed, and what happened after the bell
Nvidia ended Tuesday’s regular session at $189.18, up about 3% on the day, with after-hours action essentially flat immediately afterward. [3]
Some key “tape” stats traders are watching heading into Wednesday:
- Tuesday range: roughly $182.90 to $189.21 [4]
- Volume: about 135.8 million shares [5]
- 52-week range: roughly $86.62 to $212.19 [6]
Why it matters for the next open: NVDA finished near the top of the day’s range, which often keeps momentum traders engaged—but it also means the stock is entering a shortened session with less room for error if sentiment turns.
Why Nvidia moved on Dec. 23: macro tailwinds + AI trade rebound
Today’s Nvidia move wasn’t happening in isolation. U.S. equities climbed as markets reacted to a batch of economic data, and the rally skewed toward growth and AI-linked names.
Reuters reported that U.S. stocks rose with the S&P 500 tracking toward a closing record after data showed Q3 GDP running at a 4.3% annualized rate, while traders adjusted expectations for near-term Fed policy. In that same market context, Reuters highlighted Nvidia as one of the notable AI winners on the day (up roughly mid–single digits in percent terms depending on the timestamp). [7]
Two practical takeaways for Wednesday morning:
- Rates still matter to NVDA. When bond yields jump or Fed-cut expectations shift, mega-cap growth leadership can rotate quickly. [8]
- Holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves. Reuters also noted trading volumes were light and expected to thin further into the holiday. [9]
The big Nvidia story today: China policy is back in focus (H200 + tariffs + political pushback)
1) Trump-era chip-policy headlines are moving markets again
One of the most market-sensitive Nvidia narratives right now is whether, how, and how fast the company can sell advanced AI chips into China—and what new conditions come with that access.
- Investopedia reported Tuesday that Nvidia has “won” approval to sell H200 AI chips into China, tied to a 25% revenue-sharing agreement, with the company hoping sales could begin as soon as February—but with major political and regulatory hurdles still in play on both sides of the Pacific. [10]
- Importantly, Investopedia notes bipartisan U.S. resistance is active: lawmakers have floated measures that could tighten oversight or potentially block advanced AI chip exports. [11]
2) Reuters: shipments timeline and China approval risk
Reuters’ reporting (from late Monday, still central to today’s market conversation) said Nvidia has told Chinese customers it aims to start shipping H200s before the Lunar New Year period in mid-February, but that the plan remains contingent on approvals. Reuters also described the scale of early shipments discussed and the “policy shift” compared with prior restrictions. [12]
3) Reuters today: U.S. delays China chip tariffs—but keeps leverage
In a separate but related thread, Reuters reported Tuesday that the U.S. administration said it plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports, but delayed implementation until June 2027, while also pointing to ongoing reviews and negotiations that could touch U.S. tech exports and the prospect of Nvidia AI chip shipments. [13]
Why this matters for NVDA before Wednesday’s open:
Any incremental headline—Congressional pushback, licensing details, quotas, Chinese regulatory posture, or timelines—can move Nvidia because investors are trying to map China exposure onto 2026 revenue expectations. The after-hours calm suggests no new bombshell hit the tape immediately after 4 p.m. ET, but the policy story is far from “resolved.” [14]
Demand signal: ByteDance’s 2026 AI spending plan is another read-through for Nvidia
Adding to the demand narrative, the Financial Times reported Tuesday that ByteDance plans to increase AI-related capital spending in 2026 and earmark a large portion for AI semiconductors—while still navigating restrictions on access to top-end Nvidia chips (and exploring workarounds such as overseas data-center capacity). [15]
For NVDA traders, this kind of capex headline is a double-edged signal:
- Bull case: confirms large-scale AI buildouts remain intact internationally. [16]
- Risk lens: underscores that geopolitics can redirect demand (substitution, domestic alternatives, or “compute abroad”), impacting Nvidia’s mix and margins over time. [17]
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see Nvidia going next
Across Wall Street, Nvidia remains one of the most widely covered “AI infrastructure” stocks. A current snapshot of analyst expectations:
- Consensus rating:Strong Buy (39 analysts)
- Average 12-month price target: about $252.49 (roughly +33% upside from current levels at the time of the snapshot)
- Target range:$100 on the low end to $352 on the high end (a reminder of how wide the forecast dispersion remains) [18]
StockAnalysis also aggregates revenue and EPS expectations from Wall Street analysts, showing sharp growth assumptions over the next fiscal periods (with revenue and EPS forecasts stepping up meaningfully year over year). [19]
What to do with this as a trader (not as advice):
In the very short term—especially in a holiday-shortened week—analyst targets typically matter less than headline risk (China/export policy) and index flows. But price targets and revisions can shape medium-term dips/bounces because they influence how institutions frame “valuation vs. growth.”
Technical setup for Wednesday: strong trend, but short-term “overbought” signals
If you’re watching NVDA from a technical angle going into the Dec. 24 open, the stock is sending a mixed message:
- Many indicators screen bullish on a daily basis (a “Strong Buy” type of summary across moving averages). [20]
- At the same time, the 14-day RSI reading is above 70 (shown as overbought), which can precede consolidation or profit-taking—especially when liquidity is thin. [21]
Investing.com’s technical readout also lists commonly watched moving averages (including 50-day and 200-day) and pivot levels traders use to frame support/resistance into the next session. [22]
A practical way traders interpret this into tomorrow:
Momentum can persist, but with an early close, many participants will be more sensitive to any negative headline—and quicker to reduce exposure rather than hold risk through a holiday closure.
What to know before the market opens Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025
1) Know the schedule: Wednesday is a shortened session
- U.S. markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24
- Markets are closed on Dec. 25 for Christmas [23]
This matters because a lot of price discovery can get squeezed into the morning, and spreads can widen earlier than usual.
2) Watch the premarket catalysts: macro data + yields
The economic calendar is relatively light, but one number can still move rate-sensitive growth stocks:
- 8:30 a.m. ET:Initial Jobless Claims (forecast and prior estimates vary by source) [24]
- 10:30 a.m. ET:EIA crude oil inventories (more of an inflation/energy read-through than a direct NVDA driver) [25]
Also in the background: consumer sentiment has been choppy. Reuters reported the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 89.1 in December, reflecting rising concerns around jobs and income—another reason the market is hypersensitive to labor-market signals like jobless claims. [26]
3) China/export-control headlines are the “NVDA-specific” wildcard
Before the open, traders will be scanning for:
- Clarifications on the H200 China pathway (licensing, quotas, conditions, timing) [27]
- Any update that ties Nvidia exports to the broader U.S.-China chip policy posture (including tariffs timelines and negotiations) [28]
4) Expect thinner liquidity—and potentially sharper moves
With the early close and holiday week dynamics, price moves can look “bigger than the news” because fewer participants are active. Reuters explicitly noted volumes were light and expected to thin further into the holiday. [29]
The bigger picture: bubble talk is part of the NVDA backdrop again
One more theme threading through today’s coverage: the market is still debating how much of the AI boom is durable growth versus froth.
Reuters published an analysis Tuesday noting that some global investors are rotating attention toward Chinese AI names amid concerns about lofty valuations in U.S.-listed AI stocks—another sign that “AI bubble” narratives remain a live factor in sentiment around mega-cap leaders like Nvidia. [30]
This doesn’t change Nvidia’s fundamentals overnight—but it can change how quickly traders take profits during rallies.
Bottom line for NVDA heading into Dec. 24
Nvidia goes into tomorrow’s early-close session after:
- A strong Dec. 23 close near $189 and a quiet after-hours tape [31]
- Market-wide tailwinds from a growth-led rally tied to fresh macro data [32]
- Ongoing, high-stakes headlines on China chip sales that could materially influence 2026 expectations [33]
If you’re watching NVDA into the open, the two biggest swing factors are (1) any overnight China/export-control headline and (2) how yields react to jobless claims in a thin, holiday-shortened market. [34]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. www.ft.com, 17. www.ft.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.investopedia.com, 34. www.investing.com
