Ahead of the U.S. stock market open on Friday, December 26, 2025, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is back in focus after a holiday pause that left investors with fresh, market-moving headlines—but limited liquidity to price them in.
U.S. equities were closed on Christmas Day (Dec. 25) and had an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24. Major U.S. exchanges are scheduled to run a regular full trading day on Dec. 26, which often brings a “catch-up” effect as investors reprice news that broke while markets were shut. [1]
Below is what matters most for NVDA going into the opening bell—covering the biggest breaking news, key forecasts, and the main bull/bear debates shaping sentiment.
NVDA price snapshot: where NVIDIA stock left off heading into Dec. 26
With markets closed on Dec. 25, the most recent trading reference point is the Dec. 24 session (holiday-shortened). NVDA last traded around $188.61, down about 0.32% on the day, with volume around 65.5 million shares. [2]
On Nasdaq’s stock page, NVDA is shown with a 52-week range of roughly $86.62 to $212.19 and a market capitalization listed around $4.58 trillion. [3]
Why the setup matters today: The Dec. 26 session is the first full day back after the holiday closure—and Nasdaq itself notes that extended-hours markets can be more volatile due to lower liquidity. That dynamic can spill into the open, particularly when a large-cap “AI bellwether” like NVIDIA is digesting headline-driven catalysts. [4]
The 5 things to know before the market opens
- NVIDIA struck a new Groq licensing agreement (inference tech) and is hiring Groq’s founder and key executives. [5]
- China revenue optionality is back in play—Reuters reports NVIDIA aims to start shipping H200 chips to China by mid-February 2026, but approvals remain uncertain. [6]
- U.S. politics is now a front-and-center NVDA risk factor: lawmakers have demanded disclosure and scrutiny of H200 export licensing decisions. [7]
- NVIDIA’s last earnings were blockbuster and its next quarter guidance is a major anchor for valuation debates going into year-end. [8]
- Street targets remain broadly bullish (consensus targets commonly cited around the high-$250s/low-$260s), but dispersion is wide and narrative-driven risks are rising. [9]
1) The biggest headline: NVIDIA’s Groq licensing deal is a direct play on AI inference
What happened
On Dec. 24, 2025, Groq announced a non-exclusive inference technology licensing agreement with NVIDIA. As part of that deal, Groq founder Jonathan Ross, Groq president Sunny Madra, and other team members will join NVIDIA. Groq says it will continue operating independently, with Simon Edwards stepping in as CEO, and GroqCloud continuing without interruption. [10]
Reuters followed with additional detail on Dec. 25, reporting NVIDIA would license Groq technology and hire Groq executives, highlighting Groq’s emphasis on inference performance and its architectural choices. [11]
Why investors care: inference is where the next competitive battle is heating up
NVIDIA’s dominance in training (building frontier AI models) is well established—but the market’s center of gravity is increasingly shifting to inference (running those models in production cheaply, fast, and at scale). Reuters notes that inference is where competition is intensifying, and analysts are watching how quickly NVIDIA can widen or defend its moat beyond training workloads. [12]
Groq’s approach, as described by Reuters, leans on on-chip SRAM rather than relying heavily on external high-bandwidth memory, which can influence throughput and cost structure for certain inference tasks. [13]
What to watch next
Because the agreement is explicitly non-exclusive, investors will likely focus on:
- How fast NVIDIA can commercialize the licensed technology inside its product and software stack
- Whether this becomes a platform advantage (software + networking + inference acceleration), or mainly a tactical addition
- Any follow-up disclosures about financial terms or product timelines (which, for now, remain limited in public reporting)
2) China is back in the NVDA narrative: H200 shipments could restart, but uncertainty is high
Reuters: NVIDIA targeting H200 shipments to China by mid-February 2026
Reuters reported on Dec. 22 that NVIDIA has told Chinese customers it aims to begin shipping H200 AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February 2026. The report cited expected initial shipments of 5,000–10,000 chip modules, equating to roughly 40,000–80,000 H200 chips, sourced from existing inventory. [14]
Reuters also emphasized that the plan is contingent on government approvals, and that Beijing had not approved purchases at the time of reporting. [15]
The policy reset: Trump’s H200 decision and the 25% fee
A separate Reuters report (Dec. 8/9) said President Donald Trump would allow exports of NVIDIA’s H200 processors to China and collect a 25% fee on such sales. Reuters described the fee as being collected as an import tax tied to a U.S. security review process before export onward to China. [16]
Political headwinds are not hypothetical
Investopedia summarized the situation bluntly: even with presidential approval, H200 exports could still face U.S. and China hurdles, including bipartisan pushback and potential legislative action. The piece also cited Jefferies analysts expressing skepticism about whether the sales will happen (and under what constraints). [17]
Reuters additionally reported that Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Gregory Meeks urged the Commerce Department to disclose license applications and approvals tied to H200 exports to Chinese companies—signaling the issue is likely to remain a headline risk for NVDA. [18]
Why it matters for the stock on Dec. 26
For short-term trading, the China thread creates a two-sided setup:
Potential upside narrative
- H200 shipments would represent incremental demand and revenue potential at a time when AI infrastructure spending remains intense. [19]
Key downside risk
- The approvals could stall, shrink, or become conditioned in ways that limit volume, pricing, or margin—creating a “headline whiplash” environment where sentiment can turn on new reporting.
3) NVIDIA + Intel: cleared deal, but the foundry subplot just got more complicated
FTC clearance removes one regulatory overhang
Reuters reported that U.S. antitrust agencies cleared NVIDIA’s investment in Intel, referencing an FTC notice and pointing back to NVIDIA’s previously announced $5 billion investment. [20]
But: reports say NVIDIA’s Intel 18A manufacturing tests “stopped moving forward”
In a separate development, reporting citing Reuters indicated NVIDIA tested Intel’s 18A process technology but ultimately stopped moving forward with the effort—news that weighed on Intel shares and raised questions about Intel Foundry’s ability to attract marquee external customers. [21]
Why NVDA investors should care (even if it’s “mostly an Intel story”):
- It reinforces that NVIDIA will continue to prioritize execution certainty in its supply chain and manufacturing relationships.
- It also underscores that NVIDIA’s AI roadmap (Blackwell today, Rubin next) is so strategic that any hint of supply-chain risk—or supply-chain leverage—can become market-sensitive quickly.
4) Earnings and guidance remain the foundation: what NVIDIA last reported, and what it signaled next
In headline-driven weeks, it’s easy for traders to treat NVIDIA like it’s “just news flow.” But NVDA’s valuation still rests on financial performance—and the last reported numbers were huge.
Q3 FY26 recap (reported Nov. 19, 2025)
NVIDIA reported:
- Revenue:$57.0 billion (up 94% year over year)
- Data Center revenue:$51.2 billion (up 112% year over year)
- GAAP EPS:$1.30 (up 116% year over year)
- It also highlighted strong demand for new systems—Jensen Huang said “Blackwell sales are off the charts,” in comments included in the release. [22]
Q4 FY26 outlook (this is what the market is ultimately trading toward)
For the next quarter, NVIDIA guided for:
- Revenue:$65.0 billion ± 2%
- GAAP gross margin:74.8% ± 0.5%
- Non-GAAP gross margin:75.0% ± 0.5% [23]
Next earnings date: a defined catalyst on the calendar
NVIDIA’s investor relations events listing shows Q4 FY26 financial results scheduled for Feb. 25, 2026. [24]
Why this matters for Dec. 26 trading: When a mega-cap is priced for sustained hyper-growth, the market tends to trade “from catalyst to catalyst.” The nearer the next earnings date gets, the more sensitive the stock can become to:
- supply chain datapoints
- hyperscaler capex headlines
- export control developments
- competitive positioning in inference (exactly where the Groq news lands)
5) Dividend note: payment date hits Dec. 26
Nasdaq’s NVDA page lists:
- Ex-dividend date: Dec. 4, 2025
- Dividend pay date:Dec. 26, 2025
- Annualized dividend:$0.04 (yield around 0.02%) [25]
This isn’t a price-moving dividend in the way high-yield stocks can be—but it’s still a reminder of NVIDIA’s capital return posture, alongside its share repurchases highlighted in its earnings release. [26]
What Wall Street forecasts are implying right now
Analyst targets and consensus estimates vary by provider, but multiple widely followed tracking services continue to show targets meaningfully above the mid-$180s stock price area seen in the last Dec. 24 trade.
Examples:
- MarketBeat listed an average price target around $262 and a generally bullish consensus stance. [27]
- Benzinga’s tracker showed a consensus price target around the high-$250s. [28]
Separately, earnings estimate dashboards (such as Nasdaq’s earnings forecast view) show analysts projecting EPS around the mid–$1 range across upcoming fiscal quarters—useful as a directional indicator even though estimates can change quickly on new information. [29]
How to interpret these forecasts (without over-trusting them):
- In NVIDIA’s case, the stock often moves less on the absolute numbers and more on whether the company is beating the already-high bar, sustaining margins, and converting demand into shippable systems (especially around major platform transitions like Blackwell → Rubin).
Risks that matter most before the bell
If you’re reading NVDA into the Dec. 26 open, these are the key risks embedded in the current headlines:
1) Export controls and “policy volatility” risk
The H200 China story is not just a sales opportunity—it’s a real-time example of how quickly rules and conditions can change, and how much uncertainty can remain even after high-level approval. [30]
2) Narrative risk: training leadership is not the only battlefield anymore
The Groq licensing news is strategically interesting, but it also highlights that investors are now explicitly focusing on the next leg of AI compute: inference economics (cost, latency, energy efficiency, and scalability). [31]
3) “Headline clustering” during thin liquidity
This week is a classic setup for larger-than-normal swings because the market is reopening from a holiday closure into a session where positioning, year-end flows, and lower participation can exaggerate moves—especially in mega-cap momentum names. [32]
Bottom line: what to watch in NVDA at the Dec. 26 open
Going into Friday’s open, NVIDIA stock is balancing two powerful forces:
- Fundamentals remain extremely strong, anchored by massive revenue scale, high margins, and a near-term growth outlook that is still eye-popping by mega-cap standards. [33]
- Policy and competition headlines are intensifying, particularly around China exports and inference-era positioning—two topics that can move sentiment fast, even when they don’t immediately change quarterly numbers. [34]
Practical watchlist for the first hour of trading:
- Any new reporting on H200 license approvals or China-side purchasing conditions
- Follow-on details about how NVIDIA plans to use Groq’s licensed tech inside its platform
- Whether the open is driven by real volume or thin liquidity “gap moves” (important in post-holiday sessions) [35]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. groq.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. groq.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.morningstar.com, 22. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 23. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 24. investor.nvidia.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.benzinga.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com
