Nvidia stock NVDA climbs as Groq inference deal and China export shift shape the next trading week

New York — As of Dec. 26, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET, U.S. regular trading has just closed, and investors are shifting into a post‑close, weekend mindset with after-hours trading still active.

NVIDIA Corporation shares (NASDAQ: NVDA) traded higher into the closing stretch of a typically thin, post‑Christmas session, helped by fresh headlines around AI inference strategy and renewed attention on U.S.–China chip policy. NVDA was last quoted around $190.62, up about $2.01 (roughly +1.07%) on the day, with an intraday range of $189.50 to $192.67 and volume around 122 million shares.

Broadly, the market backdrop was close to flat: the tech‑heavy Invesco QQQ and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) were little changed into the close—consistent with a low‑liquidity holiday session where individual catalysts can matter more than macro narratives.

What’s driving the conversation now is less about “AI is big” (that’s been the story) and more about how NVIDIA defends its dominance as the market shifts from training to inference at scale—and how geopolitics and supply chain constraints could influence the next leg of growth.

Why Nvidia stock moved today

1. Nvidia and Groq strike an inference technology deal, not a full acquisition

NVIDIA confirmed a non‑exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq focused on inference technology, alongside a notable talent move: Groq founder Jonathan Ross and President Sunny Madra (plus other team members) will join NVIDIA to help scale the licensed technology. Groq emphasized it remains independent. ^[1]

Reuters framed the structure as part of a broader Big Tech pattern: using licensing and executive hires instead of outright acquisitions—often seen as a way to acquire capabilities while potentially reducing antitrust friction compared with traditional M&A. ^[2]

From an investor lens, the significance is strategic: inference—running models in production, at low latency and lower cost—has become a major battleground as enterprises push AI from pilots into workflows. MarketWatch cited Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon calling the agreement “strategic,” suggesting NVIDIA is strengthening its hand in inference in addition to its established strength in training. ^[3]

Investor’s Business Daily also highlighted that multiple firms reiterated bullish stances following the news, with several targets clustered in the mid‑$200s. ^[4]

What to watch next: the market will want clarity on whether the Groq licensing arrangement becomes a meaningful productized advantage (software integration, tooling, go‑to‑market) or remains primarily a talent and IP hedge against the rise of custom inference silicon.

2. China headlines are back: Reuters reports potential H200 shipments timeline

A second catalyst sits at the intersection of geopolitics and revenue opportunity. Reuters reported NVIDIA told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping H200 AI chips to China by mid‑February 2026 (ahead of Lunar New Year timing), but emphasized that the plan is contingent on Beijing’s approval. Reuters also described this as a significant policy shift: the U.S. would permit H200 sales to China with a 25% fee, reversing a prior approach that restricted advanced AI chips. ^[5]

For investors, China policy is a two‑edged sword:

Upside: incremental shipments can support near‑term revenue, especially if demand is strong and supply exists in inventory.
Risk: sudden policy reversal—or tightening—can hit sentiment quickly, and the approval process adds uncertainty.

A strategic analysis from IISS noted a U.S. pivot on regulating AI diffusion and referenced a waiver framework around H200 restrictions, reinforcing how fast this policy area can evolve. ^[6]

The bigger thesis: inference, memory bottlenecks, and the next platform cycle

Inference is the next profit battlefield

Today’s Groq news lands in a market reality: inference workloads are exploding as companies deploy AI assistants, search, recommendation engines, and automation at scale. This does not replace training—it complements it—but it changes optimization priorities (cost per query, latency, power efficiency).

That matters because inference competition includes:

hyperscaler in‑house chips (for example, custom accelerators)
specialized startups
GPU challengers offering competitive hardware but often fighting an uphill software ecosystem battle

NVIDIA’s advantage has historically been the platform: hardware + networking + CUDA software + libraries. If NVIDIA can integrate or learn from Groq’s inference approach without fragmenting its stack, investors may view the move as a defensive moat extension rather than a distraction.

Memory supply is still a real constraint in AI buildouts

Even with robust demand, AI infrastructure has a practical choke point: memory, especially HBM.

Reuters has repeatedly underscored how AI demand is pressuring global supply chains—highlighting shortages and price surges in memory components as data centers outcompete consumer devices for supply. ^[7]

This matters for NVIDIA because HBM availability can shape the pace of:

Blackwell platform deployments
next‑gen roadmaps such as Rubin
customer delivery schedules and revenue recognition timing

On the supplier side, Reuters reported Samsung said it was in talks to supply HBM4 to NVIDIA and that NVIDIA confirmed supply collaboration with Samsung for both HBM3E and HBM4—a reminder that NVIDIA’s growth story is partly a supply ecosystem story. ^[8]

Reuters also quoted CEO Jensen Huang highlighting that SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron have scaled capacity to support NVIDIA, and that NVIDIA has received advanced samples from all three—key context as investors gauge how tight memory remains into 2026. ^[9]

Fundamentals check: what Nvidia reported most recently

NVIDIA’s latest major company update (its third quarter fiscal 2026 results) showcased the scale and pace of the AI cycle:

Revenue:$57.0 billion, up 22% sequentially and 62% year‑over‑year
Data Center revenue:$51.2 billion, up 25% sequentially and 66% year‑over‑year
Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue outlook:$65.0 billion ±2% ^[10]

NVIDIA also highlighted substantial capital returns: $37.0 billion returned to shareholders in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, and $62.2 billion remaining under the repurchase authorization at the end of Q3. ^[11]

And CEO Jensen Huang used unusually direct language about demand, saying (in the company release) that “Blackwell sales are off the charts” and cloud GPUs are sold out—an important sentiment signal even for investors who treat executive optimism cautiously. ^[12]

Wall Street forecasts: targets are high, but dispersion is widening

Analyst targets remain broadly bullish, but the range reflects the core debate for 2026: how long can NVIDIA sustain hypergrowth as the revenue base becomes enormous, competition intensifies, and policy risk remains elevated.

Recent examples in the market discourse:

TipRanks reported Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis raised his price target to $352, implying substantial upside from late‑December levels (as cited by TipRanks), while also acknowledging export and macro variables. ^[13]
Investopedia cited a mean price target around $254 (contextualizing the Street’s central tendency versus more aggressive bull cases). ^[14]
Investor’s Business Daily noted multiple firms reiterating buy ratings with targets reaching about $275 in the wake of the Groq news. ^[15]

For investors, the practical takeaway is not that any single target is “right,” but that the consensus remains constructive while key swing factors—export rules, memory supply, and inference monetization—are increasingly central to how analysts justify valuations.

The exchange is closed now: what investors should know before the next session

Because it is after the 4:00 p.m. ET close in New York, the next major “pricing moment” for most investors will be the next regular session (Monday morning, barring unexpected closures).

Here’s what matters between now and the next open:

1. Watch after-hours reaction to the Groq headline

After-hours liquidity is thinner and moves can be noisy. Still, institutional read‑throughs often show up quickly if the market interprets the deal as materially strengthening NVIDIA’s inference platform strategy. ^[16]

2. Track any weekend developments on U.S.–China chip policy

Reuters’ H200 shipment timeline is explicitly contingent on approvals and policy implementation details. Any confirmation, delay, or new conditions could shift sentiment rapidly at Monday’s open. ^[17]

3. Keep an eye on the AI supply chain narrative, especially memory

If memory tightness worsens, it can affect the pace of AI cluster deployments—potentially impacting near‑term upside surprises even when demand is strong. ^[18]

4. Mark the next two major calendar catalysts: CES and earnings

NVIDIA has scheduled major visibility moments ahead:

NVIDIA Live at CES 2026 with Jensen Huang on January 5, 2026 in Las Vegas (NVIDIA and CES listings). ^[19]
NVIDIA Q4 fiscal 2026 financial results on February 25, 2026 (company investor calendar and earnings calendar services). ^[20]

5. Rebalance risk around year-end flows

Late December trading can be distorted by year‑end positioning, tax‑related flows, and lower liquidity. That doesn’t invalidate fundamentals, but it can amplify volatility—particularly for mega‑cap tech names that dominate index weights.

Bottom line for NVDA investors

NVIDIA stock ends the week’s last full session with the market focused on three overlapping questions:

Can NVIDIA keep widening its moat in inference as the AI market matures beyond training?
Will geopolitics open or close revenue lanes, particularly in China?
Can the supply chain keep up, especially for advanced memory that feeds next‑gen GPUs?

The Groq agreement reads as a forward‑leaning move to protect NVIDIA’s platform leadership as inference becomes a larger share of real‑world AI spend. The China H200 shipment reporting highlights how policy can still swing near‑term expectations. Meanwhile, the memory story remains the quiet constraint that can speed up—or slow down—everyone’s plans.

As always with high‑momentum megacaps: the upside case is powered by dominant execution and ecosystem lock‑in; the risk case is powered by policy shocks, supply bottlenecks, and valuation sensitivity when growth eventually normalizes.