NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is back in the center of the market’s AI conversation on Dec. 23, 2025, with traders and long-term investors tracking one headline above all others: a potential reopening of China sales for one of Nvidia’s most important data center GPUs. Shares were trading around $183.69 early Tuesday (latest timestamp available: 13:42 UTC).
That level follows a strong Monday session, when NVDA closed at $183.69 after ranging roughly $182.35–$184.16. [1] The near-term catalyst is political and operational at the same time: if approvals proceed, Nvidia could begin shipping H200 AI chips into China in early 2026—while U.S. lawmakers are simultaneously pushing for tighter disclosure around any export licenses.
Below is what’s driving NVIDIA stock today, plus the most-cited forecasts and analyses circulating on 23.12.2025.
The headline moving NVDA: Nvidia aims to restart H200 shipments to China in mid‑February 2026
According to a Reuters exclusive published late Monday, Nvidia has told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping H200 chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid‑February 2026, using existing inventory for initial orders. Reuters reported the first wave could total 5,000–10,000 “chip modules,” equivalent to roughly 40,000–80,000 H200 AI chips. [2]
Two details matter to investors:
- The timeline is not guaranteed. Reuters emphasized the plan is contingent on government approvals, including action on the Chinese side. [3]
- This is a policy reversal in Washington. Reuters tied the potential resumption to President Donald Trump’s decision to allow H200 sales to China subject to a 25% fee, reversing the Biden-era ban on advanced AI chip exports. [4]
Nvidia also told Reuters it “continuously manage[s]” its supply chain and that licensed H200 sales to authorized China customers would not affect its ability to supply U.S. customers. [5]
Why the H200 matters even in a “Blackwell era”
Market commentary on Dec. 23 made an important nuance explicit: H200 is not Nvidia’s newest platform, but it is still a high-demand accelerator. Zacks, in a market wrap distributed via Nasdaq.com, described H200 as two generations behind Nvidia’s current Blackwell Ultra processors, yet still important enough that renewed China access could be meaningful to revenue expectations. [6]
Washington adds friction: U.S. lawmakers demand transparency on Nvidia H200 export licenses
The China reopening story didn’t arrive alone—it arrived with political pushback.
In a Reuters report dated Dec. 22 (circulating widely in today’s news cycle), Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Gregory Meeks asked the U.S. Commerce Department to disclose details around any license applications and approvals tied to exporting Nvidia’s H200 chips to Chinese firms. They requested disclosure of approvals within 48 hours of an approval date and asked for briefings before approvals are issued. [7]
For NVDA holders, this is the classic “two forces, one stock” setup:
- Bull case: reopening China creates incremental demand and revenue optionality.
- Risk case: heightened scrutiny increases the chance of delays, narrower customer lists, stricter terms, or another policy swing later.
China demand isn’t theoretical: ByteDance’s 2026 AI capex plans keep chips in the spotlight
A separate piece of the Dec. 23 narrative is that Chinese demand for AI compute continues rising, even under export constraints.
The Financial Times reported that ByteDance (TikTok’s parent) plans to increase AI spending in 2026 and budgeted significant capex for AI semiconductors, including plans to test-buy 20,000 H200 chips at around $20,000 each, despite restrictions. [8]
Even without full access to the most advanced GPUs, China-based platforms are still signaling a willingness to spend heavily—supporting the thesis that if H200 shipments resume, the ramp could be fast.
AI “bubble” anxiety is part of today’s NVDA tape
Not all Dec. 23 coverage is bullish on U.S. AI megacaps. Reuters reported that some global investors are increasingly looking at Chinese AI companies as they worry about overvaluation in U.S. AI stocks and as Beijing pushes tech self-sufficiency. [9]
This matters for Nvidia in a very market-psychology way: NVDA isn’t just a company, it’s also a proxy for the AI trade. When “AI bubble” language spreads, Nvidia’s multiple can come under pressure even if near-term fundamentals remain strong.
The capex backdrop remains Nvidia’s oxygen
While valuation anxiety is real, today’s broader market commentary still points to continued AI infrastructure buildout as the dominant macro tailwind.
Zacks’ Dec. 23 market wrap (via Nasdaq.com) highlighted expectations for massive AI infrastructure spending over the coming years and noted that Big Tech has been signaling continued investment in AI-related capacity. [10]
Meanwhile, Reuters recently documented how the AI buildout is influencing corporate financing behavior: technology, media, and telecom companies issued a record $428.3 billion of bonds in 2025, with proceeds used in part to fund data centers and AI investment, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. [11]
For Nvidia shareholders, this is the simplest “follow the money” logic: if the world keeps building AI data centers, GPUs keep selling—even if the geopolitics get messy.
Nvidia fundamentals: the last reported quarter and what management guided next
A stock can’t live on headlines alone, so here’s the latest company-reported snapshot investors are using as an anchor.
In its third quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Nvidia reported:
- Revenue:$57.006 billion
- Diluted EPS:$1.30
- Non-GAAP gross margin:73.6% (GAAP gross margin also disclosed)
- Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue outlook:$65.0 billion ± 2% [12]
Nvidia also reaffirmed shareholder-return mechanics that matter for longer-term models: a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share, payable Dec. 26, 2025 (record date Dec. 4), and continued buybacks with $62.2 billion remaining under authorization as of the filing. [13]
A key structural risk also remains visible in the background: customer concentration. Reuters previously reported that Nvidia’s revenue concentration among its largest customers is meaningful, with one report noting that four major customers accounted for a large share of revenue in the quarter. [14]
Analyst forecasts and price targets on Dec. 23, 2025: the consensus stays “Strong Buy”
Despite the volatility around export policy and “bubble” debates, the sell-side consensus remains notably upbeat.
Two widely referenced consensus snapshots today:
- Investing.com lists an overall consensus of “Strong Buy” and an average 12‑month price target of about $253 (with a high estimate of $352 and a low of $140, based on the analyst set it tracks). [15]
- StockAnalysis reports 39 analysts with a consensus “Strong Buy” and an average price target of $252.49 (range: $100–$352). [16]
In plain English: consensus models imply roughly high‑30% upside from the ~$180s, but the range between low and high targets remains wide—reflecting how much the next 12 months depend on (1) AI capex durability and (2) geopolitics.
Recent price-target moves still skew upward
StockAnalysis’ compilation of recent updates includes:
- Truist: $255 → $275 (Dec. 19, 2025)
- Tigress Financial: $280 → $350 (Dec. 18, 2025)
- Morgan Stanley: $235 → $250 (Dec. 1, 2025) [17]
Forecasts and analysis published today: 24/7 Wall St., Motley Fool, and Raymond James coverage
Beyond consensus, Dec. 23 also brought fresh (and very different) takes on where NVDA could go next.
24/7 Wall St.: a model-based forecast with a multi-year frame
24/7 Wall St. published a Dec. 23 forecast projecting $233.16 as a near-term target and offering a longer-run scenario set through 2030 (with assumptions tied to EPS and P/E multiples). [18]
This kind of model output is not a Wall Street “price target” in the strict sense, but it’s the kind of content that tends to circulate widely because it offers a concrete number tied to a narrative.
Motley Fool (Dec. 23): Nvidia’s moat is CUDA + the stack, not just the GPU
A Motley Fool analysis published early Dec. 23 argued the core Nvidia thesis remains tied to AI infrastructure spending and emphasized Nvidia’s software and systems moat—pointing to CUDA and proprietary interconnect approaches (e.g., NVLink) as factors that make “mix and match” GPU strategies harder for customers. [19]
Seeking Alpha: Raymond James sees “moderate upside” from China (with many moving pieces)
A Seeking Alpha market-news item dated Dec. 23 reported Raymond James sees moderate upside potential for Nvidia and AMD from China, while stressing uncertainty due to the number of “moving pieces.” [20]
What to watch next for NVIDIA stock
The Dec. 23 picture is unusually clear on the themes, even if the outcomes are still uncertain.
1) Export licenses, approvals, and the “who can buy what” list
The difference between “China is open” and “China is open to a few approved customers under strict licensing and a fee” is the difference between a headline bounce and a lasting earnings revision. Reuters’ reporting makes clear the process is still conditional. [21]
2) Evidence of capex durability in 2026 budgets
Zacks’ market wrap highlights the idea that Big Tech continues to plan heavy AI spending into 2026. Confirmation will come the old-fashioned way: capex line items, order commentary, and data center build schedules. [22]
3) The next earnings checkpoint
Zacks’ earnings calendar data points to the next reporting window tied to the quarter ending January 2026, with the Zacks consensus estimate shown at $1.51 per share. [23]
Bottom line on Dec. 23, 2025
On today’s news, NVIDIA stock is being pulled by two giant magnets:
- A potentially meaningful positive catalyst—the reopening of H200 shipments to China in early 2026, which could add incremental demand at a time when AI compute is still a strategic priority worldwide. [24]
- A political and regulatory reality check—Washington scrutiny is increasing, and the timeline depends on approvals that could tighten, slow down, or shift with policy. [25]
Against that backdrop, the market’s “base case” remains constructive: multiple consensus trackers still show Strong Buy ratings and average targets in the low‑$250s. [26]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.ft.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 13. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. 247wallst.com, 19. www.fool.com, 20. seekingalpha.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com
