NVIDIA Corporation stock is in focus on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, as Wall Street trades into a holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session—and as investors weigh fresh developments tied to China-bound AI chip exports, Washington oversight risk, and new technical and analyst forecasts for NVDA.
As of this writing, NVDA is trading around $189, roughly 3% higher than the prior close in early activity.
Why NVIDIA stock is in the spotlight on Christmas Eve
This session is likely to be more headline-driven than usual. U.S. equity markets are expected to close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24 and remain closed on Dec. 25 for Christmas, a setup that often comes with lighter volume and sharper moves on breaking news. [1]
At the same time, Reuters notes the “Santa Claus rally” window is beginning—an often-cited seasonal stretch that can influence short-term sentiment and positioning into year-end. [2]
The biggest NVDA catalyst: H200 shipments to China and the approval gauntlet
The most market-relevant NVIDIA storyline into year-end is the renewed possibility of shipping H200 AI chips to China, following a major policy shift.
Reuters: Nvidia targets mid-February H200 shipments — but Beijing still must approve
Reuters reported that Nvidia has told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping H200 chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February. Initial shipments are expected to come from existing stock, totaling 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules—equivalent to about 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips, according to sources cited in the report. [3]
Critically, Reuters emphasized that “significant uncertainty remains” because Beijing has not yet approved purchases, and timelines could shift with government decisions. [4]
The fee, the politics, and the policy reversal
In the same Reuters reporting, the move is framed as a major reversal from the prior U.S. approach: the Trump administration would allow H200 exports with the U.S. government collecting a 25% fee. [5]
Investopedia’s Dec. 23 coverage (still driving investor discussion into Dec. 24) adds why traders view this as a high-impact swing factor: even with presidential approval, exports could face additional hurdles in both the U.S. and China, potentially injecting uncertainty into sales expectations. [6]
Washington pushback: lawmakers demand transparency and faster disclosure
Another pressure point is U.S. political oversight. Reuters reported that Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Gregory Meeks asked the U.S. Commerce Department to disclose details and any approvals tied to ongoing license reviews for potential H200 sales to Chinese firms—requesting that approved licenses be disclosed within 48 hours of approval, among other demands. [7]
The review process: agencies weigh in, but the final decision sits at the top
Reuters also reported that the U.S. Commerce Department has sent license applications for H200 sales through an interagency review (including State, Energy, and Defense), with agencies typically having 30 days to weigh in—while noting the final decision rests with the president under the regulations described. [8]
Why the H200 story matters even in the Blackwell era
Even though the H200 is part of Nvidia’s prior-generation Hopper line, Reuters notes it remains widely used in AI workloads and sits within a broader roadmap where Nvidia is focusing production on Blackwell and its upcoming Rubin line—making H200 supply comparatively scarce. [9]
For investors, the core question is simple: Will China re-open as a meaningful revenue opportunity under new rules—without creating a new political and compliance overhang?
Intel is part of today’s Nvidia conversation—twice
1) Nvidia’s Intel investment cleared by U.S. antitrust agencies
A separate but related theme: Nvidia’s relationship with Intel. Reuters reported that U.S. antitrust agencies have cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, and noted Nvidia previously said it would invest $5 billion in the chipmaker. [10]
2) Reuters: Intel drops after report Nvidia halted tests on Intel’s 18A node
On Dec. 24 itself, Reuters wrote that Intel fell after a report said Nvidia has halted tests to manufacture on Intel’s 18A chipmaking node following initial tests. [11]
Bloomberg also reported the same theme in a Dec. 24 headline, describing Intel shares falling after a report said Nvidia halted a test to use Intel’s production process. [12]
For NVDA shareholders, the takeaway isn’t that Nvidia’s product demand changes overnight—but that the market is still trying to map out how Nvidia secures future leading-edge manufacturing and packaging capacity, and whether Intel foundry becomes meaningful in that story.
Analyst forecasts for NVDA: “cheap” calls, higher targets, and what the market is pricing
Wall Street targets highlighted this week: $275 still in play
In a widely circulated analyst roundup, Truist reiterated a buy rating and raised its Nvidia price target to $275 from $255, while Bernstein maintained a buy rating and a $275 target—arguing Nvidia was trading unusually low versus the semiconductor index (SOX) relative to history. [13]
These notes matter for two reasons:
- They reinforce that many analysts still view Nvidia as a core AI infrastructure beneficiary into 2026.
- They highlight the current investor debate: Is NVDA consolidating before another leg higher, or topping after a multi-year AI boom?
Technical outlook making the rounds on Dec. 24: resistance at $196 and $212, bullish path to $220
A Dec. 24 technical analysis piece republished via Morningstar/MarketWatch said strategist Mark Newton sees Nvidia “rumbling to life,” highlighting technical resistance near $196, then $212, and describing a scenario where a strong move could carry the stock toward $220 in roughly 6–8 weeks. [14]
Technical levels don’t change fundamentals—but in a holiday week with thinner liquidity, they can influence how traders set entries, exits, and hedges.
The 2026 backdrop: AI spending remains the engine, but the bar is higher
A major Dec. 24 Reuters market outlook ties Nvidia’s story to the bigger picture: U.S. stocks have been propelled by AI optimism, easing expectations, and resilient growth since the bull market began in October 2022. Reuters also noted expectations for S&P 500 earnings to rise more than 15% in 2026, with the “Magnificent Seven” (including Nvidia) forecast to grow profits about 23%, versus 13% for the rest of the index—suggesting market leadership could broaden, even as mega-cap tech still posts strong growth. [15]
For NVDA, that macro framing matters because the stock’s premium ultimately relies on continued follow-through from:
- hyperscaler and enterprise AI buildouts,
- software-driven utilization growth,
- and the durability of AI infrastructure spending cycles.
Reuters also notes that if markets lose confidence in the returns from AI capex, tech and AI-linked shares could face more skepticism in 2026. [16]
Nvidia fundamentals investors are anchoring to right now
While today’s headlines are export- and positioning-driven, Nvidia’s most recent official results continue to set the baseline for longer-term valuation.
In its Q3 fiscal 2026 release (reported Nov. 19, 2025), Nvidia reported:
- Revenue of $57.0 billion (record)
- Data Center revenue of $51.2 billion (record)
- and issued Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $65.0 billion ± 2% [17]
The same release also said Nvidia had $62.2 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization at the end of the quarter, and it reaffirmed a $0.01 per share quarterly cash dividend to be paid Dec. 26, 2025 to shareholders of record on Dec. 4, 2025. [18]
What to watch next for NVDA stock
Here are the near-term catalysts that could define Nvidia’s path into early 2026:
- China H200 export approvals
- Whether U.S. licensing approvals arrive, and whether China allows purchases—and under what conditions. [19]
- Headline volatility around U.S.-China tech policy
- The policy posture has shifted, but oversight and national-security debates remain active. [20]
- Signals on manufacturing strategy
- Any further clarity on Nvidia’s relationship with Intel’s foundry ambitions after the “18A test halted” reports. [21]
- Next earnings date
- Nvidia’s investor relations calendar lists Feb. 25, 2026 for 4th Quarter FY26 financial results. [22]
- Key technical levels traders are watching
- The $196 and $212 resistance areas and the $220 target referenced in widely circulated technical commentary. [23]
Bottom line
On Dec. 24, 2025, Nvidia stock is being pulled by two forces at once: macro optimism that AI spending can extend the multi-year bull run, and policy risk around what AI chip exports to China will look like in practice. [24]
With NVDA trading near $189 in early activity and markets closing early for Christmas Eve, traders may be especially sensitive to incremental headlines—particularly any updates around export approvals, political pushback, or the evolving Intel narrative. [25]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.bloomberg.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.morningstar.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. investor.nvidia.com, 18. investor.nvidia.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. investor.nvidia.com, 23. www.morningstar.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com
