New York, Feb 20, 2026, 16:50 ET — Trading after the bell
- Nvidia shares were recently up around 1% in after-hours trading following reports the company is nearing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI.
- Nvidia’s Feb. 25 results are now the reference point for investors watching AI chip demand and tracking what customers are willing to spend.
- March’s GTC conference is on the radar too, with CEO Jensen Huang set to deliver the keynote, drawing traders’ attention.
Shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.O) picked up roughly 1% in after-hours action on Friday, most recently at $189.82, following a Reuters report that the chipmaker is nearing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI. That stake would come as part of a funding round in which OpenAI is seeking over $100 billion, potentially pushing its valuation to around $830 billion. Nvidia gave no comment, according to Reuters.
Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results drop after the bell on Feb. 25. The company plans a 5 p.m. ET conference call that same day, with written CFO commentary coming soon after the numbers hit.
Nvidia has become the go-to AI proxy for investors, but a bumpy kickoff to 2026 has thrown some cold water on the AI trade. Markets are also digesting the U.S. Supreme Court’s move to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs. “It’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise,” Empower’s chief investment strategist Marta Norton told Reuters. Nick Giorgi at Alpine Macro thinks Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang “has to come out and show his confidence” in customers. Reuters
Nvidia commands a hefty 7.8% slice of the S&P 500 and is forecast to deliver a 71% jump in earnings per share, with revenue pegged at $65.9 billion for the quarter, according to LSEG data. Next fiscal year’s EPS projections are all over the map—from $6.28 up to $9.68—a range Melissa Otto at S&P Global Visible Alpha labeled “significant.” The S&P 500 software and services index has dropped roughly 20% this year. King Lip at BakerAvenue Wealth Management thinks the selloff has been “overdone,” though he points out some firms will need to “adapt and innovate.” Kitco
Nvidia’s possible investment in OpenAI would further cement its relationship with a key buyer that relies on its chips for AI training and deployment. The move highlights a tightening web within the AI supply chain, where chip producers, cloud providers, and AI model developers increasingly depend on one another—not just for hardware, but also for funding.
But that sets up more questions heading into next week’s earnings call. Investors will be watching to see how Nvidia talks about demand from its top customers—and if tighter scrutiny in the ecosystem shifts the company’s take on cash or risk management.
Options traders are positioning for volatility tied to the report, with the at-the-money “straddle” for Feb. 27 expiry pricing in a move of roughly 7%—more than double the 3.2% median swing from the last 10 earnings periods, according to MarketWatch. MarketWatch
It’s a double-edged sword. Nvidia could deliver strong results, but if its forecast or commentary doesn’t impress, shares can slip—particularly if investors start doubting how long AI spending by its biggest customers will hold up.
The field isn’t idle. Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, for example, are pushing into the data-center expansion too, offering their own accelerators and networking hardware. That’s left investors watching to see if Nvidia can hold onto pricing power and manage supply as the cycle plays out.
Nvidia’s GTC conference kicks off in San Jose from March 16 to 19, and CEO Jensen Huang is on tap for the keynote address March 16.
Traders are looking at Monday to see how Nvidia shares react after the OpenAI investment headlines. The wider AI trade? Still a question mark as the week kicks off. Eyes on Feb. 25 for the next major trigger — that’s when results hit, and Huang’s comments on the call follow.
