New York, May 16, 2026, 07:36 EDT
- Nvidia dropped 4.4% Friday to $225.32. Still, shares ended the week up roughly 4.7%.
- U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend. Nvidia will post fiscal Q1 numbers after the bell on Wednesday.
- Options are pricing in about a 7% move after earnings, setting the trading range between $210 and $241 in the short term.
Nvidia shares ended Friday down 4.4% at $225.32, trading about 181 million shares. The drop comes after a chip rally lifted the stock and the market to records earlier this week. Even with Friday’s selloff, Nvidia is still up from $215.20 last week. U.S. markets are closed for the weekend.
Nvidia’s Wednesday numbers have turned into a barometer for the broader AI trade, so the date matters. Nasdaq trades from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern, Monday through Friday. For 2026, the next full U.S. market holiday is Memorial Day, May 25. That puts Monday as the next standard session.
Investors aren’t just keeping an eye on a single company. They’re watching if the AI data center spending cycle keeps driving the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, both of which jumped in a rapid spring rally.
Nasdaq’s win streak ends as chip stocks sink, oil and yields climb
U.S. stocks dropped Friday, pressured by higher crude prices and rising Treasury yields. The Nasdaq ended a six-week run, while chip shares lagged. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index slid 4%. Nvidia gave up 4.4%, AMD lost 5.7%, and Intel was down 6.2%.
Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at Slatestone Wealth, said, “There’s a realization that the market had gotten way ahead of itself.” He said traders were caught up in the “momentum AI trade.” Matthew Keator, managing partner at the Keator Group, said the U.S.-China meeting seemed more like a reset without clear short-term results. Reuters
Nvidia is set to report fiscal first-quarter results on May 20 around 4:20 p.m. ET, the company said, with written remarks from CFO Colette Kress coming after the numbers hit. The earnings call starts at 5 p.m. ET. Analysts and institutional investors can ask their questions during the call.
Options markets are pointing to volatility, with traders pricing in a possible 7% swing by the end of next week after the report. Options let traders bet on or hedge price moves. Visible Alpha estimates shared by Investopedia have revenue coming in at $78.50 billion and adjusted earnings at $1.75 per share.
Nvidia could push up to about $241 if bulls come back, or down around $210 on a miss, keeping within that 7% swing. Investopedia, citing Visible Alpha, said 12 out of 13 analysts call it a “buy.” Their average target is $274, around 20% higher than where shares ended Friday. Investopedia
Investors are watching for China moves. Reuters said the U.S. approved about 10 Chinese companies, like Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com, to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips, though shipments haven’t started. Lenovo said it’s among the firms allowed to sell H200 chips in China.
Door’s still closed for now. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said chip export controls barely came up in the Beijing meetings. President Donald Trump said China is holding back H200 deliveries so it can work on its own chips.
The AI chip race is heating up. Some traders now see Cerebras, which just went public, as a direct challenger to Nvidia. Bob Lang, who runs Explosive Options, said its IPO is one of this year’s most “important” and “relevant” for that reason. Reuters
Allen Bond, portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, said AI and energy prices are pushing markets in “almost parallel tracks.” For Nvidia, he said the company’s report must show proof that backs up the stock move and gives a “signal into the health of the rest of the industry.” Yung-Yu Ma at PNC Financial Services Group said the big question is whether Nvidia can “defend its leadership position.” Reuters
Big earnings beats might not move the needle for chip stocks if oil stokes inflation, yields jump, or China sales stay stuck. Investors could pull back on pricey names even with good results. “A smaller set of names” is pushing index gains, said Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments, calling it “not necessarily a healthy market.” Reuters
