Nvidia Stock Today (NVDA): Premarket Price, China H200 Deal, Smuggling Rumors and 2026 Forecasts

Nvidia stock premarket on December 11, 2025

Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) enters Thursday’s session under pressure after another volatile 24 hours for AI and chip names.

Last close (Wed, Dec. 10): Nvidia finished at $183.78, down about 0.6% on the day. ^[1]
Premarket (around 4:45–5:00 a.m. ET Dec. 11): Electronic trading is indicating low-$180s, with StockAnalysis showing about $180.65 at 4:46 a.m. ET, roughly 1–2% below Wednesday’s close. ^[2]
52‑week range: Approximately $86.62 to $212.19. ^[3]
Market cap: Around $4.5 trillion, keeping Nvidia among the world’s most valuable companies. ^[4]

The weakness follows a post‑earnings wobble in AI stocks after Oracle signalled it would be “chip neutral,” suggesting it will buy GPUs from multiple vendors rather than relying primarily on Nvidia. Benzinga reports that Nvidia slid in extended trading Wednesday after Oracle chair Larry Ellison highlighted this more diversified approach to AI hardware procurement. ^[5]

At the same time, investors are digesting a flood of China export headlines, smuggling rumours, and fresh analyst calls – all hitting in the same news cycle.

Trump’s H200 green light: a new China revenue stream – with strings attached

The most important macro catalyst for Nvidia this week is political, not technical.

What changed?

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will allow Nvidia to export its H200 AI acceleratorsto approved customers in China, while keeping a ban in place on the company’s most advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips. ^[6]

Key details:

The H200 is described as Nvidia’s second‑most powerful AI chip, behind the Blackwell family. ^[7]
Nvidia welcomed the decision, saying Commerce Department screening would “strike a balance” between economic and national security concerns. ^[8]
A separate analysis from The Motley Fool notes that under the deal, the U.S. government will take roughly 25% of Nvidia’s China H200 revenue as part of the export framework – effectively a heavy “AI tariff” on these chips. ^[9]

Wall Street’s first take: incremental upside

An InsiderMonkey/Finviz note published early Thursday says Wells Fargo reiterated an “Overweight” rating on Nvidia with a $265 price target, calling the H200 export approval an “incremental positive” for the stock. ^[10]

The Wells Fargo team estimates:

$25–$30 billion a year in additional revenue
$0.60–$0.70 per share in annual EPS contribution
from H200 shipments to China, even with Blackwell and Rubin still restricted. ^[11]

BofA: roadmap intact, $500B sales visibility

In a separate note overnight, BofA Securities reiterated its “Buy” rating and $275 price target, calling Nvidia its top pick after a virtual investor meeting with the company. ^[12]

According to BofA via Investing.com:

Nvidia’s GPUs remain “a full generation ahead” of rivals, with most current LLMs still trained on Hopper, not yet on Blackwell. ^[13]
Blackwell‑based models are expected to arrive in early 2026, and next‑gen “Vera Rubin” hardware is on track for 2H 2026, with a CPX inference variant planned for Q4 2026. ^[14]
Nvidia sees “demand and supply visibility” into roughly $500 billion of sales across 2025–2026, underpinned by hyperscalers and AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic. ^[15]

BofA argues that despite a trailing P/E above 45, Nvidia trades at around 25x/19x 2026/27 earnings, which the bank considers reasonable given its growth profile and slightly undervalued relative to some “Magnificent Seven” peers on a PEG basis. ^[16]

China still “needs” Nvidia, but Beijing may impose its own limits

The U.S. green light doesn’t end the geopolitics around Nvidia’s China business – it just starts a new chapter.

A Benzinga interview article published in the early hours of Thursday quotes Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman, who argues that China’s best chance of keeping up in the AI race still depends on Nvidia chips, notably the H200. ^[17]

Newman’s key points:

He “does not buy” the idea that China will walk away from H200; instead he expects Chinese demand to remain strong. ^[18]
Nvidia’s ecosystem of hardware plus CUDA software remains the preferred platform for many Chinese developers. ^[19]

But there’s a twist on the Chinese side. As summarized in recent coverage referenced by Investing.com and Geo News:

Chinese regulators are reportedly considering an internal approval regime for H200 purchases, forcing companies to justify why homegrown chips aren’t sufficient. ^[20]
Reuters reporting (via StockAnalysis) indicates that companies like ByteDance and Alibaba have already expressed interest in ordering H200s after Trump’s decision, with Beijing convening emergency meetings to assess demand and security implications. ^[21]

In short, the new H200 business could be substantial – but it will unfold under dual layers of scrutiny from Washington and Beijing.

Smuggling rumours and new tracking software

While H200 exports grab headlines, a second story is rattling investors: reports of Nvidia’s banned Blackwell chips allegedly reaching China via smuggling.

DeepSeek and “phantom data centers”

A December 11 report from Geo News recaps claims that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has been training its models on smuggled Nvidia Blackwell GPUs, despite U.S. export bans. ^[22]

According to Nvidia’s response cited in that piece:

The company says it has seen no hard evidence of such smuggling or “phantom data centers” built to bypass restrictions.
Nvidia acknowledges that any such activity would be serious and says it pursues tips it receives. ^[23]

Nvidia’s countermeasure: location‑tracking software

A separate TechCrunch article, based on Reuters reporting, says Nvidia is testing location‑verification software for its chips: ^[24]

The software uses compute metrics and communication latency to infer which country a chip is operating in.
It will reportedly be optional for customers and rolled out first for Blackwell GPUs.
The goal is to help Nvidia detect if chips sold into one region are being quietly redeployed to a restricted market.

Combined, the DeepSeek rumours and Nvidia’s new tracking initiative highlight a key risk: regulatory or political backlash if smuggling is later proven – something investors are now watching closely.

Analyst ratings: still a “Strong Buy” consensus

Despite the noise, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia stock.

Street consensus

StockAnalysis aggregates 39 analysts with an average rating of “Strong Buy” and a 12‑month price target around $248.64, implying roughly 35% upside from recent levels. ^[25]
A separate forecast summary shows many large firms – including Morgan Stanley, Citi, Barclays, JPMorgan, and Jefferies – with targets clustered between $250 and $275 and ratings of Buy or Strong Buy. ^[26]
MarketBeat and TipRanks data (via prior snippets) put the average target in the mid‑$250s, with the vast majority of analysts rating NVDA as Buy/Outperform, only a handful at Hold, and very few Sell ratings. ^[27]

Recent institutional positioning

MarketBeat’s tracking of 13F filings indicates that Nvidia is a core position for large institutions. Russell Investments, for example, recently reported NVDA as its second‑largest holding, underlining how deeply the stock is embedded in major portfolios. ^[28]

The skeptics: AI bubble worries, depreciation math and insider selling

Not everyone is convinced Nvidia is still a screaming bargain.

“Not the roaring buy it once was”

A new Seeking Alpha analysis titled “Nvidia Stock: Not The Roaring Buy It Once Was” argues that: ^[29]

Nvidia shares have stumbled in recent weeks after a blistering run earlier in 2025.
Some customers may be under‑depreciating costly GPU clusters, making it easier to keep buying now – but potentially limiting future budgets once depreciation schedules normalize.
On short‑term metrics, Nvidia’s valuation is described as “rich”, and more sensitive if sales projections are cut.

$12.6 billion of insider selling

A detailed Motley Fool / Nasdaq piece published at 3:26 a.m. ET highlights another red flag: heavy insider selling at Nvidia and Palantir over the past five years. ^[30]

According to that analysis:

Nvidia insiders have logged about $5.4 billion in net share sales over five years, while Palantir insiders sold roughly $7.2 billion. ^[31]
There have been virtually no open‑market insider buys at Nvidia in that period. ^[32]
The author also notes that Nvidia’s price‑to‑sales ratio previously spiked above 30, a level that historically has been hard to sustain for mega‑cap leaders in “next big thing” tech themes. ^[33]

The piece warns that history is unkind to bubbles: past transformative tech waves – from dot‑coms to solar to early cloud names – often saw valuations overshoot before a painful reset, and AI might not be different.

Quant and technical forecasts: modest near‑term upside

Beyond Wall Street’s fundamental estimates, several model‑driven services updated their Nvidia forecasts for today’s session.

StockInvest.us: Hold/accumulate, watch $180 support

Technical service StockInvest.us currently labels Nvidia a “hold/accumulate”: ^[34]

It sees the stock in the lower part of a “wide and weak” rising channel, typically a tactically attractive risk‑reward zone if the trend holds.
Short‑term: their system expects NVDA to rise about 3% over the next three months, with a 90% probability of trading between $182.72 and $216.33 at period end. ^[35]
For today’s session (Thu, Dec. 11) they model an opening near $183.75 and an intraday range roughly between $180.5 and $187, about ±3.6% from the prior close. ^[36]
They highlight support around $180.64 and resistance near $188.15, with volatility classified as medium. ^[37]

CoinCodex: algorithms see flat week, big long‑term upside

Crypto‑style quant site CoinCodex also runs an NVDA model: ^[38]

5‑day view: Price is expected to be broadly flat, drifting from about $183.74 toward $186.28 by December 16 – roughly 1.4% upside.
1‑year target: About $268.91, implying ~46% upside from current levels.
2030 target: Central estimate near $868–$892, more than three‑times today’s price, though this is highly speculative.

CoinCodex flags the current sentiment as “neutral”, with 16 bullish and 10 bearish technical indicators, and explicitly notes that these model projections are not investment advice. ^[39]

Fundamentals: explosive growth, heavy expectations

Even skeptics agree on one thing: Nvidia’s recent fundamental performance has been extraordinary.

From Nvidia’s own investor data and StockAnalysis: ^[40]

Revenue 2024: About $130.5 billion, up 114% year‑on‑year from $60.9 billion.
Earnings 2024: Around $72.9 billion, up roughly 145% from the prior year.
Forward consensus now projects:
- 2026 revenue: ~$217 billion,
- 2027 revenue: ~$331 billion,
- EPS jumping from about 2.94 (FY 2025) to 4.77 (FY 2026) and 7.76 (FY 2027), representing ~62% annual EPS growth two years in a row. ^[41]

These numbers help explain why many analysts are willing to tolerate a high multiple – but they also show how much growth is now “priced in.”

If the AI infrastructure build‑out slows, or if competition from AMD, custom ASICs, or sovereign AI chips erodes Nvidia’s share faster than expected, the current valuation would be more difficult to justify.

Key questions for NVDA investors now

Heading into Thursday’s session, Nvidia stock sits at the intersection of massive opportunity and elevated risk. Some of the main questions the market is trying to answer:

China revenues vs. restrictions
- How large and durable can the H200 China business be given U.S. revenue‑sharing, export screening, and potential Chinese purchase controls? ^[42]
Export enforcement and smuggling
- Will allegations of Blackwell chip smuggling stay unproven rumours, or will regulators uncover evidence that could trigger new sanctions or compliance costs? ^[43]
Customer spending cycles
- Are hyperscalers and AI labs still in an early‑stage build‑out phase, or will depreciation, budget stress and “good enough” GPU capacity slow orders in 2026–2027, as some bears suggest? ^[44]
Valuation sustainability
- Can Nvidia sustain premium multiples if growth decelerates from triple‑digit to “merely” high double‑digit, especially after years of heavy insider selling and extreme enthusiasm for AI as a theme? ^[45]
Regulation and politics
- With U.S. and Chinese policymakers both deeply involved in AI chips, how stable are today’s rules? The current H200 deal could be adjusted again after elections or geopolitical shocks.

Bottom line: Nvidia stock today

As of premarket on December 11, 2025, Nvidia stock is trading modestly lower in the low‑$180s, extending a pullback sparked by Oracle’s cautious tone and a broader cool‑down in AI sentiment. ^[46]

Yet the fundamental story remains immense:

Massive revenue and earnings growth
A still‑dominant technical lead in AI GPUs
A newly reopened – if tightly controlled – path back into the Chinese data‑center market

Balancing that are valuation risks, insider selling, and the possibility of an AI “bubble” hangover if 2026 fails to live up to the market’s loftiest expectations. ^[47]

For traders and investors, NVDA today is less a simple “growth stock” and more a high‑beta macro and policy trade on the future of AI. Anyone considering the stock should weigh their own risk tolerance and time horizon carefully – and treat all forecasts, whether from Wall Street or algorithms, as scenarios rather than guarantees.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.