Nvidia stock’s next test: Trump’s AI chip tariff meets China’s H200 roadblock

Nvidia stock’s next test: Trump’s AI chip tariff meets China’s H200 roadblock

New York, Jan 17, 2026, 13:02 EST — The market has closed.

  • Trump signed a proclamation slapping a 25% tariff on select advanced AI chips, targeting Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X.
  • A separate report revealed that China has barred Nvidia’s H200 from entering the country, causing disruption to suppliers and orders.
  • Nvidia closed lower on Friday, but AMD and Microsoft posted gains ahead of the holiday-shortened week.

Nvidia and AMD shares face a new hurdle next week after President Donald Trump signed a proclamation slapping a 25% tariff on some advanced computing chips, including Nvidia’s H200 AI processor and AMD’s MI325X. South Korea’s trade minister noted the tariff targets “advanced chips made by Nvidia and AMD.” 1

This move is significant since AI-chip stocks now serve as a fast barometer for geopolitics alongside data-center demand. Tariffs act as import taxes, and even targeted rules can disrupt pricing and supply strategies in a market where buyers often plan budgets several quarters ahead.

China raised the stakes over the weekend. The Financial Times revealed that Nvidia suppliers stopped making certain H200 components after Chinese customs blocked the chips from entering the country. The move reportedly prompted some buyers to cancel orders and scramble for alternatives, the paper said. 2

On Friday in the U.S. markets, Nvidia slipped 0.48% to finish at $186.23. AMD climbed 1.73%, ending the day at $231.83, while Microsoft ticked up 0.67% to $459.86.

The White House clarified the tariffs would target a narrow range and exclude chips and derivative devices brought in for U.S. data centers, which heavily use AI processors. Yet the proclamation hinted at wider measures down the line. Traders are pricing in what might come next, not just the immediate details.

Demand signals remain robust across the supply chain. TSMC reported a 35% jump in fourth-quarter net income year-on-year and announced a 2026 capital budget between $52 billion and $56 billion. The chipmaker highlighted strong demand for its cutting-edge process technologies. “Our business… was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies,” CFO Wendell Huang said in the earnings release. 3

Wall Street closed almost unchanged on Friday as the long weekend approached, though chipmakers caught attention with their semiconductor index climbing 1.2%, Reuters noted. “To finish the week around flat… most investors will take that as a win,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. 4

The downside risk is clear. Should Washington expand tariffs beyond a limited list, or if Beijing turns its customs policy into an outright ban, investors might pull back on the “smooth ramp” growth built into AI-chip sales projections—particularly those linked to China.

Traders have a clear date to track now. U.S. markets shut Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, then open again Tuesday, Jan. 20. Intel’s quarterly earnings drop after the close Thursday, Jan. 22—a key moment that could shift sentiment in the semiconductor sector. 5

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