OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) Stock Near Record Highs: Q3 2025 Earnings, Capital Return, and 2026 Outlook

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (OCBC, SGX: O39) is finishing 2025 in strong form. Its share price is hovering just below fresh record highs after a solid third quarter, a multi‑billion‑dollar capital return plan and a wave of news around wealth management, digital initiatives and leadership change.

As of the morning of 8 December 2025, OCBC shares are trading around S$18.80–18.81 on the Singapore Exchange, down slightly on the day but still near record territory. ^[1] That places the bank among the best‑performing blue chips in recent weeks, even though it had lagged the Straits Times Index (STI) earlier in the year. ^[2]

OCBC share price: near all‑time highs after wealth‑driven re‑rating

OCBC’s stock has broken out decisively since early November:

On 2–3 December 2025, the shares hit new records, touching S$18.97 intraday and closing at S$18.95, the highest close on record. ^[3]
As of 8 December, the stock is trading only a few cents below that level, at roughly S$18.8–18.9. ^[4]
Year‑to‑date gains stood at about 12% by mid‑November, before the latest leg higher. ^[5]

Analysts attribute the re‑rating to two big themes:

Wealth franchise outperformance – OCBC’s wealth management arm has been a key earnings driver, with wealth fees rising strongly and assets under management (AUM) growing. ^[6]
“Option value” of higher dividends – Macquarie Capital notes that OCBC’s share price is supported by outperformance in its wealth business and “the optionality of higher dividends in 2026,” arguing the stock still has room to close the valuation gap with larger rival DBS. ^[7]

Bloomberg Intelligence expects wealth fees to drive revenue growth for Singapore’s three big banks in 2026, with OCBC “setting the pace”. ^[8]

Q3 2025: earnings beat expectations, but margin pressure is real

OCBC’s latest results are a big part of the story.

In Q3 2025 (three months to 30 September):

Net profit came in at S$1.98 billion, effectively flat year‑on‑year (S$1.97b) but ahead of the consensus forecast of about S$1.81b, according to LSEG data. ^[9]
Total income was S$3.80 billion, roughly unchanged year‑on‑year. Net interest income fell as rates eased, but this was offset by a surge in fee and trading income. ^[10]
Non‑interest income jumped 15% year‑on‑year and 24% quarter‑on‑quarter to a record S$1.57 billion, led by wealth management fees, trading, and insurance. ^[11]
Net interest margin (NIM) slipped to 1.84%, down from 2.18% a year earlier, reflecting a softer rate environment and deposit repricing. ^[12]
OCBC narrowed its full‑year 2025 NIM guidance to “around 1.90%”, from a prior range of 1.90–1.95%, and now expects net interest income (NII) to decline by a mid‑to‑high single‑digit percentage in 2025. ^[13]

On the balance‑sheet side, OCBC still looks very conservative:

Loans grew 7% year‑on‑year to S$327 billion; deposits rose 11% to S$411 billion, lifting the CASA ratio to just over 50%. ^[14]
The non‑performing loan (NPL) ratio stayed low at 0.9%, with allowance coverage of 160%. ^[15]
The CET1 capital ratio under MAS’ final Basel III reform rules stood at 16.9% (transitional) and 15.0% on a fully‑loaded basis, comfortably above regulatory minima. ^[16]
Sustainable financing loans climbed 17% year‑on‑year to S$55.0 billion, representing 17% of total customer loans, with total sustainable finance commitments at S$75.8 billion. ^[17]

CEO Helen Wong described Q3 as the bank’s strongest quarter of the year and the second highest on record, emphasising the resilience of its diversified banking, wealth and insurance franchise despite declining interest rates. ^[18]

Dividends and the S$2.5 billion capital return plan

For income‑focused investors, OCBC’s capital return policy is one of the main attractions.

In February 2025, OCBC unveiled a S$2.5 billion capital return programme spanning 2024–2025. The plan consists of: ^[19]

Special dividends equal to 10% of group net profit for 2024 and 2025, and
Share buybacks to be carried out over 2025–2026, funded from surplus capital.

This sits on top of a target ordinary dividend payout ratio of 50%, bringing the total payout to around 60% of net profit for both FY2024 and FY2025. ^[20]

For FY2024, OCBC’s board declared: ^[21]

Total ordinary dividend of S$0.85 per share (interim plus final), and
A special dividend of S$0.16 per share, lifting the total payout to S$1.01 per share – roughly 60% of net profit.

OCBC reiterated at its H1 2025 results and subsequent commentary that it remains committed to the S$2.5b capital return, including a special dividend equal to 10% of full‑year 2025 group net profit and ongoing buybacks through 2026. ^[22]

Buybacks are already visible in market data: an April 2025 Business Times analysis noted that OCBC accounted for just over 8% of all Singapore share buybacks (by value) in early Q2, alongside even larger programmes at DBS and UOB. ^[23]

Taken together, OCBC is positioning itself as a high‑dividend, high‑capital‑buffer bank: a 60% payout ratio, special dividends, and share buybacks, while still running a CET1 ratio near 17%.

Strategic growth engines: wealth, sustainability and digital

Wealth management and regional expansion

OCBC is leaning hard into wealth and regional growth:

In Q1 2025, wealth management income represented about 38% of total group income, with banking wealth AUM reaching S$306 billion. ^[24]
Management aims for mid‑single‑digit loan growth in 2025 and a NIM “around 2%”, even as rate cuts loom. ^[25]
OCBC has exceeded its original sustainable finance target, reaching S$71 billion in sustainable finance commitments by 2024, and has since pushed that higher. ^[26]

The bank is using this balance of capital strength and fee‑based growth to support a S$3 billion incremental revenue goal by 2025, according to strategy analyses summarising management guidance. ^[27]

Digital funding: tokenised US commercial paper

In August 2025, OCBC launched a US$1 billion (about S$1.35b) digital U.S. commercial paper programme, using blockchain‑based tokenisation in partnership with J.P. Morgan’s Digital Debt Service. ^[28]

The programme complements an existing US$25 billion conventional CP programme.
The first tokenised issuance took place on 20 August 2025, tapping into the US$1.4 trillion U.S. CP market.
Proceeds are used for general funding, strengthening OCBC’s U.S. dollar funding capability and giving it an early‑mover role in Singapore’s asset‑tokenisation push.

Payments, remittances and anti‑scam tech

OCBC has also been busy on the retail and SME front:

Cross‑border wallets – In November, OCBC added eight Southeast Asian e‑wallets to its app, extending a Visa partnership and targeting long‑standing remittance pain points for foreign workers sending money home. ^[29]
WeChat Pay QR payments in China – From 1Q 2026, OCBC customers in Singapore will be able to scan WeChat Pay merchant QR codes in mainland China directly from the OCBC mobile banking app, via an expanded partnership with UnionPay International. It will be the first Singapore bank to enable universal QR payments across mainland China in this way. ^[30]
Marriott supply‑chain financing – A new strategic partnership with Marriott International will give around 12,000 SME suppliers in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia access to same‑day invoice financing via OCBC, deepening its regional SME relationships. ^[31]
Anti‑scam in‑app calling – OCBC is rolling out a secure in‑app calling feature for inbound and outbound calls, allowing customers to verify that a call is genuinely from the bank and reducing exposure to phone‑based scams. The feature doesn’t incur IDD charges and will be extended to business banking customers in 2026. ^[32]

These initiatives aren’t just gadgetry; they help lock in deposits, fee income and customer stickiness, especially among wealth clients, SMEs and migrant workers who are heavy users of cross‑border payments.

Corporate moves: Great Eastern, CEO succession and governance

Great Eastern bid blocked, but insurance remains key

One of OCBC’s long‑running strategic aims has been to fully own its insurance arm, Great Eastern Holdings.

In July 2025, minority shareholders in Great Eastern voted against a delisting proposal, blocking OCBC’s S$900 million bid to acquire the remaining 6.28% it doesn’t own. ^[33]
Although about 63.5% of minority shareholders supported the deal, the threshold was 75%, so it failed.
OCBC had previously said it would not make another offer if the proposal was rejected. ^[34]

Great Eastern remains a major profit contributor, generating roughly S$700 million of profits annually over the past decade, and continues to be consolidated in OCBC’s results. ^[35] The failure to delist removes a potential catalyst but doesn’t change the underlying insurance earnings.

CEO transition: from Helen Wong to Tan Teck Long

Leadership is also changing:

In July 2025, OCBC announced that Tan Teck Long, head of global wholesale banking, will take over as Group CEO on 1 January 2026, when Helen Wong retires. ^[36]
Wong, the first woman to lead a Singapore bank, focused heavily on digital transformation, sustainability and the Great Eastern consolidation, and has been recognised as CEO of the Year in Asia Pacific by The Asian Banker. ^[37]

The succession is seen as orderly and internal, preserving continuity in strategy while potentially sharpening the focus on wholesale banking and capital markets under Tan’s leadership.

Operational risk reminder: November outage

Not everything has been smooth. On 27 November 2025, OCBC suffered a multi‑hour outage affecting its internet and mobile banking channels:

Customers were unable to log in to the mobile banking app for roughly two hours. ^[38]
Card and ATM services reportedly remained available. ^[39]
The bank later confirmed that no customer data was compromised and all funds remained safe, and services were fully restored later that evening. ^[40]

The incident underscores operational and reputational risk, especially given heightened regulatory scrutiny on outages in Singapore’s banking system in recent years. So far, there has been no public indication of major regulatory sanctions specifically tied to this November event, but it is a factor investors will watch.

Valuation: modest premium to book, modest upside to targets

At current levels around S$18.8–18.9, OCBC’s valuation looks like this:

Price‑to‑book (P/B) is roughly 1.4x, based on a book value per share of about S$13.3 as of Q3 2025. ^[41]
Trailing P/E is about 11.6–11.7x, with a forward P/E near 11.6x, according to several data providers. ^[42]

Simply Wall St’s peer comparison suggests:

OCBC trades below the peer average P/E of 13.3x, implying some value relative to global peers, but
It is more expensive than the broader Asian banks industry average P/E of 9.7x. ^[43]

In other words, investors are paying a moderate premium to sector averages for OCBC’s combination of capital strength, wealth franchise and dividend policy, but not an extreme one.

Analyst ratings and price targets: upside, but not huge

The sell‑side view is broadly constructive but not euphoric.

Consensus targets

Beansprout (using SGX data) puts the consensus share price target at about S$19.01, just ~1% above the current price of S$18.81. ^[44]
Sginvestors, aggregating recent broker reports, shows six analysts with targets ranging from S$17.00 to S$20.52, with: ^[45]
- Average target: S$19.41
- Median target: S$20.01
Simply Wall St, using 16 analysts, reports an average 12‑month target of S$19.29, around 2% upside from S$18.92, with a range of S$17–21.20. ^[46]

Broker stances

Recent broker moves include:

J.P. Morgan upgrading OCBC to “Overweight” with a target price of S$20 by end‑2026, citing improving dividend prospects and strong wealth management performance as catalysts for a further re‑rating. ^[47]
RHB raising its target price by nearly 7% to around S$18.70, but keeping a “Neutral” rating after Q3 results, arguing much of the near‑term upside is already in the price. ^[48]
Other houses such as Maybank, UOB Kay Hian and Phillip Securities generally see solid fundamentals, but some have shifted to “Hold/Neutral” after the capital return announcement, noting that the plan is supportive but not dramatically more generous than peers. ^[49]

Taken together, the analyst community sees limited near‑term upside from today’s price – but solid total return potential once ordinary and special dividends are included.

Quant and technical forecasts

Algorithmic models add another flavour of opinion:

WalletInvestor’s technical system currently sees OCBC at S$18.92 and projects a 1‑year price of about S$20.11 and a 5‑year target of S$26.23, implying roughly +6% and +39% upside, respectively. ^[50]

As always, such model‑based forecasts are highly assumption‑driven and should be treated as one input among many rather than a guarantee of future performance.

Key risks to the bull case

Even with the upbeat narrative, several risks stand out:

Net interest margin compression
OCBC expects NIM to stabilise around 1.90% in 2025, down from 2.2% in 2024, with net interest income falling mid‑to‑high single digits as global rates normalise. ^[51] If rate cuts are deeper or faster than expected, pressure on interest income could intensify.
Macro and credit risk
Management is guiding for credit costs of 20–25 basis points in 2025 and has increased allowances for non‑impaired assets to prepare for macro uncertainty. ^[52] A sharper downturn in China or the region could push that higher.
Execution and competition in digital and wealth
OCBC is competing not only with DBS and UOB but also regional and digital‑only banks. Sustaining growth in AUM, cross‑border payments and digital adoption while keeping costs in check is a non‑trivial execution challenge. ^[53]
Operational resilience and regulatory oversight
The late‑November outage is a reminder that regulators and customers are intolerant of repeated disruptions. More frequent or severe incidents could have reputational and regulatory consequences. ^[54]
Great Eastern strategy post‑vote
With the delisting blocked, OCBC loses some flexibility around its insurance asset. The bank still consolidates Great Eastern’s earnings, but has to live with a small minority stake and suspended trading, an awkward structure that may limit future strategic options. ^[55]

What investors are watching next

From here, OCBC watchers are likely to focus on a few milestones:

Full‑year 2025 results (expected February 2026) – confirmation of NIM, NII and credit cost guidance, plus details on FY2025 special dividend and buybacks. ^[56]
Execution of the S$2.5b capital return plan – pace of buybacks and clarity on whether the 60% payout framework extends beyond 2025. ^[57]
Early moves under incoming CEO Tan Teck Long – any tweaks in capital allocation, regional strategy or appetite for acquisitions compared with the Wong era. ^[58]
Wealth and sustainability metrics – growth in wealth AUM, fee income and sustainable finance commitments, which are increasingly central to OCBC’s story. ^[59]

For now, OCBC stock sits in a sweet spot: near record highs, well‑capitalised, yield‑friendly, and with a credible path to fee‑driven growth. The trade‑off is that the valuation already prices in a good chunk of that story, leaving investors to debate whether incremental upside lies in further dividend upgrades, stronger‑than‑expected wealth growth – or simply in the comfort of owning a conservatively run bank in a slightly unhinged world.