Singapore, Feb 10, 2026, 15:05 SGT — Regular session
- OCBC edged lower during the afternoon, but the shares still lingered near their recent highs.
- Singapore has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026, pulling attention back to banks on the macro side.
- Singapore’s banks report earnings in late February. Traders have started to take positions ahead of those releases.
OCBC slipped 0.3% to S$21.31 in midday trading Tuesday, with around 2 million shares changing hands. Earlier, the price moved between S$21.26 and S$21.43. 1
It’s all about the calendar. Singapore’s Trade and Industry Ministry has lifted its 2026 growth forecast to a range of 2% to 4%, after clocking a 5.0% GDP surge in 2025 and a notably strong Q4. That kind of momentum can drive up loan appetite at the banks—yet investors are left sizing up just how long those rate benefits might stick around. 2
Earnings jitters persist. DBS on Monday posted a 10% slide in fourth-quarter net profit—coming in short of analyst expectations—and warned this year’s profit will likely fall “slightly below 2025 levels” as domestic rates squeeze margins. CGS International’s Tay Wee Kuang and Lim Siew Khee pointed to “weaker-than-expected markets trading income” as the culprit. CEO Tan Su Shan, meanwhile, told clients to “buckle up” for what she described as a volatile year. 3
Officials leaned into exports as they upped their outlook, citing the AI investment wave for the upgrade. “Sustained momentum in the AI investment boom,” is what the trade ministry’s chief economist Yong Yik Wei is counting on for this forecast. But Barclays’ Brian Tan isn’t convinced; he points out that uneven biomedical output could still tip the economy into “a sequential contraction” in Q1. 4
OCBC kept things quiet on announcements, but a filing Monday showed it allocated 392 treasury shares to employee share plans, nudging its treasury stock fractionally lower. Treasury shares are those the company repurchases and keeps on hand, without cancelling them. 5
OCBC shareholders face the same nagging questions. Will the bank keep its net interest margin steady as funding costs shift? There’s also the matter of credit provisions—are they likely to stay tame? Ultimately, it’s about whether wealth and trading income can fill any holes if core lending slows down.
Still, there’s potential for gains here. A more robust GDP figure could kickstart loan growth and bump up fee income, especially on the trade side. That could cool some of the jitters following DBS’s reserved comments about margins.
But the tide can turn. A sharper pickup in rate pressure or a sudden rise in credit costs—particularly for banks deep in property or exposed to slackening trade—could quickly reshape earnings and dividend prospects, even if headline growth forecasts hold up.
OCBC is due to report on Feb. 25, with traders keeping a sharp eye on the numbers. Shares hover near the top of their S$14.35–S$21.45 52-week band, up around 23% over the past year. 6
