Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (OCBC, SGX: O39) enters 9 December 2025 trading near record highs, supported by resilient 2025 earnings, hefty dividends, and a string of fresh strategic moves — including a green steel investment in Malaysia and a new WeChat Pay QR tie-up in China. At the same time, investors are weighing richer valuations against clear headwinds from narrowing net interest margins (NIMs) and a looming CEO transition. [1]
OCBC share price and valuation snapshot in December 2025
OCBC shares have been on a strong run since Q3 results in early November. The stock hit new intraday records of about S$18.83 on 2 December and S$18.97 on 3 December, before consolidating slightly below S$19. [2]
By the close on Monday, 8 December, OCBC finished at around S$18.7, with The Business Times reporting a S$0.19 (1%) drop on the day to S$18.73. [3] Different data providers show minor variations in the latest quote, but all place the stock firmly in the high-S$18 range, just shy of its all‑time high.
On valuation, multiple platforms estimate that OCBC now trades at roughly 1.3–1.4 times book value and 11–12 times trailing earnings, above its own historical averages but still at a discount to DBS, which commands well over 2x book, and a premium to UOB at about 1.2x. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2 After a double‑digit percentage gain in 2025, analysts increasingly frame OCBC as “quality at a reasonable price” rather than a deep‑value play. TechStock²+1
Fresh 9 December angle: OCBC backs a US$1.5 billion low‑carbon steel project
The main OCBC stock story on 9 December 2025 is the market’s reaction to a new sustainability‑linked equity investment.
On Monday (8 December), OCBC announced that its mezzanine capital unit has taken an equity stake in Green Esteel, a Singapore-based company developing a US$1.5 billion hot briquetted iron (HBI) plant in Sabah, Malaysia. The HBI plant will anchor what is expected to be Southeast Asia’s largest integrated low‑carbon steel facility, with planned capacity of about 2.5 million tonnes of HBI per year and a target commissioning date around 2030. [4]
Key points from the deal:
- The investment is made via OCBC’s sustainability investment programme, which specifically targets green and transition assets. [5]
- Green Esteel’s project is the first commercial funding from an Asian financial institution for this low‑carbon steel platform. [6]
- The HBI feedstock will support production of roughly the same volume of low‑carbon steel, with potential emissions reductions of up to 80% versus traditional coal‑based processes, according to industry estimates cited in OCBC’s partner materials. [7]
The Business Times flagged the transaction in its “Stocks to watch” column on 9 December, noting both the ESG angle and Monday’s 1% share price dip to S$18.73. [8]
From an earnings perspective, the absolute dollar amount of OCBC’s equity cheque has not been disclosed and is almost certainly small relative to the bank’s S$21.6 billion of trailing revenue and S$7.3 billion of net income. [9] Strategically, however, it ticks several boxes:
- It reinforces OCBC’s net‑zero commitments by backing decarbonisation in one of the world’s most carbon‑intensive sectors. [10]
- It deepens relationships with industrial clients in infrastructure and basic materials, potentially seeding future lending, hedging and advisory business.
- It adds to OCBC’s narrative as a regional leader in sustainable finance, complementing existing green loans and sustainability‑linked bond mandates. [11]
In short: this is not a profit needle‑mover today, but it is exactly the kind of ESG‑aligned, fee‑rich activity that investors want to see more of as classic loan margins get squeezed.
WeChat Pay QR integration: December’s digital payments catalyst
Just days before the steel announcement, OCBC unveiled a different kind of growth lever: QR payments in China.
On 1 December 2025, OCBC said its Singapore mobile banking app will, by Q1 2026, allow customers to scan Weixin Pay (WeChat Pay) merchant QR codes across mainland China and pay directly from their OCBC accounts. This builds on the app’s existing ability to pay via Alipay+ and UnionPay QR codes, leveraging an expanded partnership with UnionPay International and NETS’ cross‑border infrastructure. [12]
OCBC highlights several data points to underline the opportunity: [13]
- Its Scan & Pay feature already connects to QR networks in 48 countries, and
- Overseas QR transaction volumes are up about 11% year-on-year,
- With active users rising around 67%.
The extension to WeChat Pay means OCBC customers travelling to China will be able to “pay like a local” without topping up separate wallets or queuing for physical currency exchange. Payments are debited from Singapore‑dollar accounts at close to real‑time FX rates, with no extra merchant fee from OCBC’s side, according to local coverage. [14]
For investors, this initiative matters less for near‑term profit and more for three structural reasons:
- Fee income – cross‑border payments and FX spreads add to OCBC’s non‑interest income base.
- Customer stickiness – the app becomes the default travel wallet for Singaporeans and foreign workers moving between Singapore and China.
- Data and ecosystem – every QR transaction deepens OCBC’s behavioural data, which can inform credit decisions, marketing and product design.
Combined with its US$1 billion blockchain‑based digital U.S. commercial paper programme, launched in August to tap the U.S. funding market via tokenised issuance, OCBC is steadily repositioning itself as a very tech‑forward bank by regional standards. [15]
Earnings check: Q3 2025 shows resilient profits, softer margins
The foundation for OCBC’s current share price lies in Q3 2025 earnings, released in early November.
According to OCBC’s results release and subsequent media coverage: [16]
- Net profit for Q3 2025:
- S$1.98 billion, flat year-on-year but up around 9% quarter-on-quarter.
- This beat analyst expectations of roughly S$1.81 billion. [17]
- Nine‑month 2025 net profit: about S$5.68 billion, just a touch below the prior year’s record pace. [18]
- Net interest margin (NIM):
- Fell to about 1.84% in Q3 from 2.18% a year earlier, reflecting lower global interest rates and competition for deposits. [19]
- Net interest income (NII):
- Down roughly 9% year-on-year, in line with management’s earlier warnings about 2025 margin pressure. [20]
Where OCBC impressed was outside classic lending:
- Non‑interest income (fees, wealth, trading, insurance) hit a record high, rising by mid‑teens percentages and fully offsetting weaker NII. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
- Wealth management income reached roughly S$1.6 billion in Q3, contributing about 43% of total group income.
- Banking wealth assets under management (AUM) rose to about S$336 billion, up 8% quarter‑on‑quarter. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
- Bank of Singapore (BOS), OCBC’s private banking arm, now manages more than US$145 billion in AUM and aims to be one of Asia’s top‑five private banks within roughly five years. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
Asset quality remains an important bright spot:
- The non‑performing loan (NPL) ratio stayed at about 0.9%, unchanged for six consecutive quarters.
- NPA coverage (provision coverage of non‑performing assets) sits around 160%, one of the strongest buffers among Singapore banks. TechStock²+2BusinessToday+2
Analysts such as Simply Wall St and others have noted that this combination — flat headline profit but stronger fee and wealth engines against weaker margins — shows a resilient business model, but one that is now more sensitive to market conditions in wealth and insurance. [21]
Guidance: NIM compression and 2026 macro risks
Management has been candid about the headwinds ahead. In Q3 commentary, OCBC: [22]
- Narrowed its 2025 NIM guidance to around 1.90% (from a previous 1.90–1.95% range).
- Flagged that net interest income in 2025 is now expected to fall by mid‑ to high‑single‑digit percentages compared with 2024.
- Kept targets for mid‑single‑digit loan growth, a relatively stable cost‑to‑income ratio and a generous 60% total payout ratio (including specials) intact. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
With the U.S. Federal Reserve already cutting rates once in September and markets now pricing in another move, OCBC’s management and independent analysts see lower-for-longer rates as both a drag on margins and a support for asset markets that feed wealth income. TechStock²+2Simply Wall St+2
Dividends, buybacks and the S$2.5 billion capital‑return plan
For many investors, OCBC is fundamentally a dividend stock — and 2025 has not disappointed.
What shareholders have received so far
Using SGX filings and dividend trackers: [23]
- FY2024 payout (paid in 2025):
- Ordinary dividend: about S$0.85 per share.
- Special dividend: S$0.16 per share.
- Total: S$1.01 per share, representing around 60% of record FY2024 profits of S$7.59 billion. TechStock²+1
- Distributions declared with 2025 ex‑dates so far: roughly S$0.98 per share:
- 25 April 2025 ex‑date: S$0.41 (final ordinary) + S$0.16 (special).
- 8 August 2025 ex‑date: S$0.41 (1H25 interim ordinary). [24]
At share prices in the high‑S$18s, that cash stream implies an effective yield in the ~5.2–5.4% range if FY2024’s total S$1.01 payout is repeated. Data providers that count only “regular” dividends (S$0.82 per year) show a lower figure of about 4.3–4.4% trailing yield, but this excludes specials. [25]
The capital‑return framework
In February 2025, OCBC announced a S$2.5 billion capital‑return programme spanning FY2024 and FY2025: TechStock²+1
- Ordinary dividends targeted at 50% of earnings,
- Plus special dividends equal to 10% of net profit in each of FY2024 and FY2025,
- With the remainder of the S$2.5 billion delivered via share buybacks.
Research cited by Asian Banking & Finance and TS2 suggests OCBC has already completed a few hundred million dollars of buybacks and could still return more than S$600 million via additional buybacks or specials by the end of 2026, with at least S$1 billion in excess capital beyond the S$2.5 billion plan. TechStock²+1
Consensus data collated by Growbeansprout indicates that analysts expect an ordinary dividend per share of about S$0.82 for 2025, somewhat lower than 2024’s S$1.01 including specials — essentially assuming that special payouts normalise after this two‑year framework. [26]
Overall, OCBC currently offers a headline dividend yield around the mid‑4% to mid‑5% range, depending on whether you assume specials continue. That puts it among the higher‑yielding blue‑chips on the Straits Times Index. [27]
Great Eastern, wealth and the “multi‑engine” business model
OCBC’s investment case increasingly rests on its multi‑engine profit structure: classic commercial banking, private banking, and insurance.
Great Eastern: failed delisting, strong profits
In July 2025, shareholders of Great Eastern Holdings rejected a proposal to delist the insurer and accept OCBC’s S$900 million offer for the remaining 6.28% stake. The vote drew 63.49% support, short of the 75% threshold needed. OCBC already owns 93.72% of Great Eastern and had said it would not make another offer if this one failed. [28]
Reuters reports that Great Eastern has contributed an average of around S$700 million in annual profit to OCBC over the past decade, making it a major earnings pillar despite volatility from interest‑rate swings. TechStock²+1
From an OCBC shareholder’s angle, the failed delisting:
- Delays potential synergies from full integration, but
- Avoids a large immediate cash outlay, preserving capital for dividends, buybacks and organic growth. TechStock²+1
Wealth management and Bank of Singapore
At the same time, OCBC’s wealth strategy is firing:
- Group wealth income hit a record S$1.6+ billion in Q3, around 43% of total income, with banking wealth AUM at S$336 billion, up 18% year-on-year. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
- Bank of Singapore now manages over US$145 billion, nearly 20% growth from early 2023, and is targeting a top‑five slot among Asian private banks, with Hong Kong and Dubai as growth hubs. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
This fee‑driven, market‑sensitive engine is exactly what is helping OCBC keep profits near record levels even as NIM compresses — but it also raises exposure to any future risk‑off shock in Asian markets. [29]
Leadership transition and strategy into 2026
Another important storyline as investors look beyond 2025 is leadership change at the top.
- OCBC has appointed Tan Teck Long — currently Head of Global Wholesale Banking — as its next Group CEO, effective 1 January 2026, replacing Helen Wong who retires at year‑end but remains involved in certain China‑focused roles. [30]
- In November 2025, OCBC also named Melvyn Low as Group Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer, tasking him with driving the bank’s long‑term roadmap while he continues to lead transaction banking. Under his watch, transaction‑banking revenues have doubled over five years, aided by innovations such as blockchain‑based conditional payments. [31]
Both moves underline a strategic agenda centred on:
- Expanding regional wealth and transaction banking,
- Accelerating digital and cross‑border payment capabilities,
- And maintaining a conservative balance sheet to support hefty capital returns.
For the market, 2026 will be the first full year to judge how the new CEO balances growth, risk and shareholder payouts.
Analyst ratings and price targets as of December 2025
Recent weeks have seen a wave of generally positive broker calls on OCBC stock.
Broker moves
- J.P. Morgan recently upgraded OCBC to “overweight”, in a broader note on Singapore banks that also set a punchy S$70 target for DBS.
- Maybank Investment Bank upgraded OCBC to “Buy”, lifting its earnings forecasts for 2025–2027 by 7–9% and setting a target price around S$20.52, citing strong “One Group” synergies, high NPA coverage and room for more capital returns.
- Citi also moved OCBC to “Buy”, arguing that the bank’s wealth AUM productivity is approaching DBS’s, while OCBC still trades at a meaningful valuation discount.
- Macquarie research continues to highlight OCBC as its preferred Singapore bank, pointing to outperformance in fee income and resilient capital.
Consensus snapshot
Across data platforms, the picture is broadly consistent:
- Growbeansprout / SGX consensus: average 12‑month target around S$19.0–19.1, implying about 1–2% upside from current levels.
- SGInvestors.io: average target near S$19.4, median around S$20.0, with most houses on Buy/Outperform and a handful of neutrals around S$17–18.70.
- TradingView and Investing.com: consolidated targets in the S$19.3–19.4 range, with a spread from roughly S$17 to just over S$21, and an overall “Buy” recommendation profile (roughly 10 Buys, 6 Holds, 0 Sells in recent months).
Put simply, most analysts no longer see OCBC as deeply undervalued. Instead, they expect modest price upside plus 4–5% dividends, translating into mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit total returns if the macro backdrop evolves in line with guidance.
Key risks investors are watching
Even with the stock near record highs and business trends favourable, analysts flag several important risks:
- Lower-for-longer interest rates
- Further global rate cuts into 2026 could compress NIM below the current 1.90% guidance, especially if deposit competition intensifies.
- Slower loan growth
- OCBC now guides for mid‑single‑digit loan growth; a more severe economic slowdown in Asia could push that lower and weigh on income.
- Reliance on market‑sensitive wealth and insurance income
- A sharp risk‑off period in regional markets could dent wealth fees and Great Eastern’s contributions, reversing some of 2025’s offsets to lower NII.
- Execution and regulatory risk in China and digital payments
- Deeper involvement in QR payments and cross‑border flows exposes OCBC to regulatory shifts in China, FX volatility and intense competition from local fintechs and big tech platforms.
- Leadership transition
- 2026 will test how new CEO Tan Teck Long and the refreshed leadership team manage capital returns, growth and risk appetite through a potentially choppier rate cycle.
- Rich-ish valuation
- With price-to-book above historical norms and expectations high, any disappointment on earnings, dividends or credit quality could trigger sharper pullbacks than in the past.
Bottom line on OCBC stock as of 9 December 2025
As of 9 December 2025, OCBC stock sits at an interesting crossroads:
- Quality: strong capital ratios, low NPLs, and a multi‑engine model spanning banking, wealth and insurance.
- Income: a generous payout framework targeting around 60% of earnings, underpinning an effective yield that can exceed 5% when specials are included.
- Growth levers: expanding wealth franchises, a major stake in Great Eastern, cross‑border QR payments (including WeChat Pay), and blockchain‑based funding all provide avenues for non‑interest income growth.
- Valuation: no longer cheap, but still trading at a discount to DBS and broadly in line with consensus fair value around S$19–20.
For investors and readers scanning Google News and Discover today, OCBC (SGX: O39) looks less like a speculative swing trade and more like a high‑quality, dividend‑rich Singapore bank priced close to fair value, with upside tied to how well it can grow fee income and navigate a lower‑rate world.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.straitstimes.com, 3. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 4. www.theasset.com, 5. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 6. www.theasset.com, 7. www.theasset.com, 8. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 9. markets.ft.com, 10. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 11. www.theasset.com, 12. www.ocbc.com, 13. www.ocbc.com, 14. www.ocbc.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.ocbc.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.ocbc.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. simplywall.st, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. finance.yahoo.com, 26. growbeansprout.com, 27. www.dividendmax.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. simplywall.st, 30. www.ocbc.com, 31. www.ocbc.com
