NEW YORK, January 6, 2026, 06:38 EST — Premarket
- U.S.-listed crude oil ETFs were firmer early Tuesday, with United States Oil Fund (USO) up 1.8% and United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) up 1.8%.
- Brent and WTI crude edged higher as traders weighed Venezuela uncertainty against expectations of ample supply.
- Traders next watch U.S. inventory reports from API on Tuesday and EIA on Wednesday for near-term direction.
U.S.-listed crude oil exchange-traded funds were higher in premarket trade on Tuesday as oil prices nudged up, with investors weighing uncertainty over Venezuelan output after the U.S. captured Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro. Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $62.06 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.4% at $58.57 by 0930 GMT.
The moves put popular oil ETFs back in play at the start of 2026, when investors often reposition and hedge quickly through exchange-traded products rather than trading crude futures directly. But the market’s focus has stayed on the supply-demand balance, with oversupply still dominating price forecasts even after the Venezuela shock.
A Reuters survey of economists and analysts put 2026 averages at $61.27 for Brent and $58.15 for WTI, citing growing supply and weak demand, and pointing to OPEC+ as the key swing factor. “It does not materially alter the underlying surplus,” said Bridget Payne, head of energy forecasting at Oxford Economics, referring to the group’s decision to hold output steady through the first quarter. Reuters
Oil ETFs moved with crude as Washington signaled it wants U.S. firms back in Venezuela’s oil fields. The Trump administration plans to meet oil company executives later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan production, Reuters reported, and White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said, “All of our oil companies are ready and willing to make big investments in Venezuela.” Reuters
Analysts cautioned that policy headlines may not translate quickly into barrels. “Oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in production,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil. Reuters
On timing, Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad, said: “We estimate only 300,000 barrels per day of additional supply within the next two to three years,” underscoring why the market has treated Venezuela as a longer-dated supply story for now. Reuters
Among the most-traded crude oil ETFs, United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 1.8% at $70.22, while United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) rose 1.8% to $28.75. Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO) gained 2.0%, and the leveraged ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) was up 2.9%.
These products track oil through futures contracts, which expire and must be rolled into later months. BNO is designed to track daily moves in near-month Brent futures, USO provides exposure to WTI-linked futures, and UCO targets 2x the daily move of its benchmark, meaning it can magnify losses as well as gains.
The risk is that the supply story wins again. A faster-than-expected increase in output, weaker demand, or a market structure called contango—when later-dated futures cost more than near-month contracts—can weigh on returns for futures-based oil ETFs when they roll positions.
What traders watch next is U.S. stockpile data: the American Petroleum Institute report is due at 4:30 p.m. EST on Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration report at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday, often a key catalyst for crude and oil ETF moves.
