NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:22 ET — Market closed
- U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight; Trump said President Nicolas Maduro was captured and flown out.
- Brent last settled at $60.75 a barrel and WTI at $57.32, with the market still focused on oversupply.
- Traders next watch Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, U.S. inventory data and the Jan. 9 U.S. jobs report.
U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight and President Donald Trump said Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife had been captured and flown out of the country. Trump said he would give more details at an 11 a.m. press conference in Florida.
For oil traders, the immediate question is whether the fighting disrupts export infrastructure or shipping, not the politics in Caracas. Any sustained outage in Venezuela would matter most to refineries that run its heavy, sulfur-rich crude.
The benchmarks ended Friday little changed: Brent settled at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $57.32. Both fell nearly 20% in 2025, and “Oil prices are locked in this long-term trading range,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Reuters
Venezuela’s oil flows were already under strain. U.S. sanctions and recent seizures of oil tankers have halved the country’s normal export rate, Reuters reported, though Chevron has continued to export Venezuelan crude under a U.S. license.
That backdrop leaves room for a risk premium — an extra price traders pay for disruption risk — when futures reopen. In the base case, prices swing higher early in the week and then settle back if cargoes keep moving and no fresh supply loss emerges.
The upside case is tied to logistics: port closures, power disruptions, or insurers and shipowners avoiding Venezuela. The downside case is familiar — concerns that global supply outpaces demand, encouraging sellers to use any headline-driven rally to hedge.
Traders will also watch how buyers price heavy crude versus the benchmarks. Differentials — discounts or premiums for a specific grade versus a benchmark — often react faster than futures when a particular stream is threatened.
Energy investors will be looking for clarity on whether the U.S. action changes the sanctions picture, shipping compliance, or the scope of Washington’s pressure campaign against Venezuelan crude.
Before the next session, traders will parse Trump’s promised briefing and look for confirmation from Caracas on who controls the military and the oil industry, and whether the U.S. operation broadens. Any move that constrains tankers, financing or payments would carry more weight for crude than battlefield headlines alone.
A separate supply lever comes on Sunday when eight OPEC+ members meet to review policy after pausing output hikes for the first quarter. OPEC and sources inside the producer group have said the panel is expected to keep production steady after oil prices fell more than 18% last year.
U.S. inventory data is the next scheduled catalyst: the Energy Information Administration is set to release its weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, a report traders use to track crude and fuel stockpiles. EIA has said it will roll out a new information release system for the report on Jan. 7.
Macro traders will also track the U.S. employment report on Jan. 9, with job growth and wages shaping the dollar and interest-rate expectations. A stronger dollar can make commodities priced in dollars more expensive for other buyers.
Brent starts the week just above the $60 mark, a level traders will treat as a technical checkpoint after last year’s selloff. Unless Venezuelan exports are visibly disrupted, oversupply concerns and producer policy are likely to keep next week’s trade choppy and range-bound.
