Oil Price Today, Dec. 18, 2025: Brent Near $60 as Venezuela Blockade and Russia Sanctions Risks Collide With 2026 Oversupply Forecasts

Oil prices are inching higher today, but the rally is tentative — more a geopolitical “risk premium” flicker than a full-blown trend reversal. In early Thursday trading on December 18, 2025, Brent crude hovered around $60 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded in the mid-$56s, as markets weighed fresh supply-disruption risks tied to Venezuela and Russia against a stubbornly bearish backdrop of swelling inventories and forecasts for a well-supplied 2026. ^[1]

Oil price today: where Brent and WTI are trading

By mid-morning in Europe, Brent was up about half a percent near $60 per barrel and WTI was up roughly two-thirds of a percent around $56.32, according to Reuters pricing at 09:10 GMT. ^[2]

Other early snapshots told the same story: modest gains, volatile intraday action, and plenty of skepticism that the bounce can last without a meaningful change in supply-demand fundamentals. ^[3]

What’s moving oil markets today

1) The Venezuela tanker “blockade” is back in focus

The biggest headline driver is Washington’s escalating pressure campaign on Venezuela’s oil exports. Reuters reports that President Donald Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, a move that immediately raised questions about enforcement, legality, and the real-world impact on barrels reaching the market. ^[4]

Why traders care: even if Venezuela is not a massive swing supplier, disruptions can matter when the market is already anxious about sanctions compliance and shipping constraints.

Key details shaping the price reaction:

Reuters and ING estimate the measures could put around 600,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan exports at risk (with a meaningful share typically heading to China). ^[5]
ING also notes that flows to the U.S. (around 160,000 bpd) could be more insulated because they are linked to Chevron-authorized liftings. ^[6]
The Washington Post reports more than 30 sanctioned tankers in the region could be affected immediately, underscoring why shipping markets are suddenly part of the oil price conversation again. ^[7]

Even so, the market’s response has been restrained — largely because traders are still asking the same two questions: How enforceable is it, and how long does it last? ^[8]

2) Russia sanctions risk is rising again

Alongside Venezuela, traders are weighing the possibility of tighter restrictions on Russia’s energy sector. Reuters reports that Bloomberg cited sources saying the U.S. is preparing another round of Russia-related energy sanctions if Moscow does not agree to a Ukraine peace deal — although Reuters also notes a White House official said Trump had not made decisions on Russian sanctions. ^[9]

ING’s take is blunt: with Brent trading around $60 and a broader surplus outlook, Washington potentially has more room to turn the sanctions “dial” upward than it would in a tight market. ^[10]

3) A cyber disruption and export uncertainty add to the supply noise

Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA has also been dealing with operational turbulence. Reuters reported that PDVSA resumed loading after disruptions tied to a cyberattack, but that many Venezuelan exports were still on hold even as loading restarted — another factor encouraging short-term supply caution. ^[11]

Why oil is still struggling despite headline geopolitical risk

Today’s lift comes after crude flirted with multi-year lows earlier this week. Reuters reported that WTI settled at $55.27 on Tuesday, the lowest close since February 2021, before rebounding as Venezuela headlines hit. ^[12]

The reason the rally is capped is simple: the macro narrative remains dominated by oversupply expectations and uneven demand growth.

Investing.com notes that despite Thursday’s gains, oil has still been tracking toward weekly losses and that 2025 has been a bruising year: WTI down about 21% year-to-date and Brent down just under 20%, reflecting how persistent surplus fears have been. ^[13]

The inventory signal: crude down, fuels up

A key “reality check” for oil bulls this week has been U.S. stockpile data.

Reuters reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by about 1.3 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ending December 12, but gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected — a combination that can mute crude rallies because it hints at softer end-demand or seasonal refinery dynamics. ^[14]

ING’s daily commodities note adds color: it pegs the crude draw at about 1.27 million barrels, driven largely by stronger exports (with crude exports rising sharply week-over-week), while refined product inventories built meaningfully and refinery runs climbed to the highest levels since early September. ^[15]

Translation for traders: crude supply is not the only story. If refined products are building, it can be harder for crude prices to sustain a breakout — even when geopolitical headlines are loud.

Oil price forecast: what major outlooks say for 2026

If today’s price action feels like a tug-of-war, the forecasts explain why.

EIA: Brent seen falling toward $55 in early 2026

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released in December, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global inventories to keep rising through 2026 and forecasts Brent averaging about $55 per barrel in Q1 2026, staying near that level through the rest of next year. ^[16]

Notably, the EIA also flags two forces that could prevent an outright collapse: OPEC+ production policy and China’s continued inventory builds. ^[17]

IEA: surpluses and swelling “oil on water” keep pressure on prices

The International Energy Agency’s December 2025 Oil Market Report sketches a market where supply growth still outpaces demand growth.

Among the most market-moving signals in the IEA update:

Demand growth is projected at 830 kb/d in 2025 and 860 kb/d in 2026. ^[18]
The agency describes an implied average surplus and highlights how crude “on water” has surged — a sign of logistical overhang and rerouted trade flows. ^[19]
It also notes that observed global inventories rose sharply through the year, with a substantial build from January through November. ^[20]

The big message: even if sanctions tighten around the edges, the market is still wrestling with abundance.

Reuters poll: 2026 pricing expectations cluster around low-$60s Brent

A Reuters poll of analysts and economists published in late November projected Brent averaging $62.23 per barrel in 2026 and WTI averaging $59.00, while estimating the potential 2026 surplus across a wide range (from roughly 0.5 to 4.2 million bpd). ^[21]

Crucially, the same poll emphasized the idea that geopolitics may keep a “floor” under prices — not because balances are tight, but because disruptions and enforcement risks can reprice quickly. ^[22]

The geopolitics premium: how big could it get?

Here’s the tension in today’s market:

In a structurally oversupplied world, oil often needs a shock to rally.
But when that shock is political, traders also discount it until enforcement becomes visible.

Reuters quoted a former U.S. State Department energy diplomat suggesting that if Venezuelan exports are materially curtailed and not replaced by spare capacity, the impact could be several dollars per barrel (on the order of $5 to $8). ^[23]

At the same time, Reuters also cited analysts who argue that U.S. actions may add short-term noise without materially tightening global balances unless the disruption persists or widens. ^[24]

What to watch next

For readers tracking oil price today and where crude goes next, the near-term roadmap is clear:

Enforcement signals: Are sanctioned tankers actually interdicted at scale, and do insurers/shippers step back? ^[25]
Russia sanctions decisions: Any confirmed tightening around Russia’s energy flows could move prices faster than rhetoric alone. ^[26]
Inventory trendlines: Crude draws help, but persistent gasoline/distillate builds can cap rallies. ^[27]
The 2026 surplus debate: EIA and IEA projections keep the “sell rallies” mindset alive unless demand surprises to the upside or supply growth disappoints. ^[28]

Bottom line

Oil is higher today — but it’s rising in a market that still believes the bigger story is too much supply chasing modest demand growth. Venezuela and Russia are injecting fresh uncertainty, and that uncertainty can move prices quickly. Yet the latest official outlooks still point toward a 2026 landscape where inventories build and rallies face resistance unless disruptions become concrete and prolonged. ^[29]

Crude Oil Prices Explained - WTI vs Brent