LONDON, Jan 16, 2026, 11:40 GMT — Regular session
- Brent crude rose about 0.8% to just above $64 a barrel; U.S. WTI climbed toward $60
- The market is still unwinding Thursday’s sharp drop after U.S. comments eased fears of an Iran supply shock
- Next test is U.S. inventory data next week, alongside fresh headlines from Iran and Venezuela
Oil prices edged higher on Friday as traders weighed supply risks linked to Iran against signs Washington may be stepping back from military action. Brent crude gained 50 cents, or 0.78%, to $64.26 a barrel by 1000 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 48 cents, or 0.81%, to $59.67, with Brent on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. (Reuters)
The move followed a rough Thursday: Brent settled down $2.76, or 4.15%, at $63.76 and WTI fell $2.83, or 4.56%, to $59.19 after President Donald Trump said Tehran’s crackdown on protesters was easing. “We went from a high likelihood that Trump was going to hit Iran to a low likelihood,” said Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group, describing the risk premium — the extra price traders pay for potential disruption — that suddenly leaked out of the market. (Reuters)
The whipsaw has been violent all week. On Wednesday, oil settled higher and then gave back most of the gains after Trump’s comments late in the session; U.S. data also showed crude inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million and gasoline inventories jumped by 9 million to 251 million, numbers that tend to cap rallies when demand looks soft. (Reuters)
Macro pressure is not helping. Traders have been trimming bets on near-term U.S. rate cuts, lifting the dollar toward a six-week high — a stronger greenback can make dollar-priced oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. (Reuters)
Iran remains the headline risk because of geography, not just politics. The Strait of Hormuz is the main sea route out of the Gulf, and U.S. government data show oil flows through Hormuz averaged about 20.9 million barrels per day in 2023, leaving few easy alternatives if ships are deterred. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
For now, the market is trapped between two stories. One is sudden disruption: unrest in Iran, plus any escalation that spooks shippers. The other is slower and uglier for bulls — inventories rising, extra barrels returning through Venezuela, and demand needing to prove itself outside a few bright spots.
But the downside scenario is obvious. If U.S. stock builds keep coming and the dollar stays firm, the bounce can fade quickly, even without a fresh geopolitical jolt. A quiet weekend on Iran could do the same, stripping more risk premium out of the price.
Traders’ next hard datapoint is the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, due on Thursday, Jan. 22, after a delay tied to the federal government closure on Monday, Jan. 19. The release is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Eastern time (1700 and 1900 GMT). (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
