LONDON, February 9, 2026, 11:34 GMT — Trading in the regular session.
- Oil held its ground after slipping earlier, with traders balancing U.S.-Iran negotiations against changes in Russian crude shipments.
- According to traders, India stepping back from Russian barrels helped keep a floor under the market.
- This week, traders are watching for U.S. inventory data along with the monthly supply-demand reports.
Oil barely budged Monday, recovering from an earlier dip as U.S.-Iran negotiations appeared to calm near-term supply worries. But traders kept one eye on the uncertain flow of Russian crude to India, which helped keep a floor under prices. Brent crude nudged higher, up 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.22 a barrel at 1044 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate showed a similar move, rising 18 cents to $63.73, also up 0.3%. “The Iranian risk premium cannot be fully defused as long as U.S. warships are located where they are,” SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop said. Sparta oil market analysts, for their part, called a complete stop to India’s Russian oil imports “a sustained bullish development” for physical barrels. 1
This push and pull is crucial right now, with crude prices moving as much on geopolitical headlines as on physical supply. The moment traders sense those dire scenarios are off the table, that premium built into prices can vanish in a hurry. Yet, it’s just as quick to return when nerves flare up again.
Both the U.S. and Iran signaled they’ll stick with indirect negotiations after “positive discussions” in Oman, a rare bit of relief for traders wary of tensions edging the region toward conflict. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point between Oman and Iran, so any hint of trouble keeps the market on edge. “Immediate fear of supply disruptions” is off the table for now, IG’s Tony Sycamore noted, but Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva cautioned that “any negative headlines could quickly reignite risk premiums.” She also flagged European Commission proposals aimed at tightening services tied to Russian seaborne crude exports. 2
Russia’s oil, once a sanctions story, now faces hurdles with Indian demand and logistics. Indian refiners, including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries, have pulled back from Russian barrels for March and April loadings, according to trade and refining sources cited by Reuters. The move comes as New Delhi works on a trade agreement with Washington, which both governments aim to wrap up by March. Reuters noted these refiners declined Russian offers after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed India had “committed” to stop importing Russian crude—a statement India itself hasn’t confirmed. 3
The supply outlook keeps getting murkier. The International Energy Agency puts oil output ahead of demand by 3.7 million barrels a day in 2026, but Brent’s stuck above $65 and the curve holds deep in backwardation—prompt barrels going for more than contracts down the line, which typically suggests near-term scarcity. Morgan Stanley figures global crude inventories climbed by roughly 520 million barrels during 2025, much of the build happening in China. Analyst Martijn Rats notes that Chinese stockpiling is “currently perceived as bullish,” a twist that muddles the read from more transparent OECD inventory data. 4
This trade isn’t without pitfalls. Diplomatic friction or trouble near Hormuz—one shipping mishap—could shove the war premium right back into the nearest contracts. But if negotiations keep inching forward and inventories keep piling up, the surplus crowd might double down.
Short-term focus turns to U.S. inventory data. Traders await the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly crude stocks update, coming Tuesday, February 10 at 21:30 GMT. The U.S. Energy Information Administration follows up with its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, set to drop after 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesdays, according to the agency. 5
The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook lands Tuesday, with fresh projections on oil supply, demand, and prices—data that tends to shape how traders view U.S. production risks heading into the next month. 6
OPEC is on deck to release its next monthly oil market report Wednesday, February 11, giving traders another official data point to compare with their own demand assumptions. 7
The IEA will release its February Oil Market Report this Thursday, February 12, closing out the week and possibly fueling fresh arguments about whether 2026 brings a clean surplus or a squeeze driven by geopolitics. 8
