LONDON, April 1, 2026, 13:03 BST.
- Brent slid to $98.35 at one point, then recovered and hovered close to $103 in London. WTI dipped to $96.50.
- President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. could wrap up its Iran campaign in just two or three weeks, yet traders aren’t buying a quick rebound for Gulf energy shipments.
- On April 1, AAA listed the average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. at $4.064 per gallon, while the IEA warned that oil losses in April might be twice what they were in March.
Oil prices bounced around the $100 mark Wednesday after President Donald Trump suggested the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran might wrap up in a matter of weeks. Hopes for a quick resolution faded, however, as traders reconsidered their bets with Gulf supply disruptions and shipping issues still unsettled. Brent crude for June delivery slipped 1% to $102.91 a barrel as of 1106 GMT, having earlier dropped to $98.35. U.S. crude, or WTI, lost 1.4%, trading at $99.94 after dipping to $96.50. Both benchmarks are still up roughly 60% from where they started when fighting broke out on Feb. 28.
This isn’t just about oil traders. On Tuesday, Wall Street logged its strongest day in nearly a year to close out the first quarter, with crude prices sliding as de-escalation hopes surfaced. Still, AAA pegged the national average for regular gas at $4.064 a gallon as of April 1—jumping from $2.984 just a month prior—while diesel hit $5.490. Now, investors are left weighing whether any price relief is coming soon, or if elevated fuel costs are about to seep deeper into the broader economy.
The IEA reports that over 12 million barrels are already off the market since the fighting started. April could see supply losses double those in March, the agency warned. Europe faces potential jet fuel and diesel shortages as soon as April or May. “Major, major disruption,” said Fatih Birol, executive director. Reuters
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. could wind down the military campaign in as little as two to three weeks, adding that Iran wouldn’t have to strike a deal for that timeline. The Strait of Hormuz, however, still moves roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade, and according to Reuters, traders are bracing for lingering vessel congestion and infrastructure repairs to drag out any real normalization—ceasefire or not.
Market hesitation over a definitive reversal shows up in the supply numbers. According to a Reuters survey, OPEC pumped 7.30 million barrels a day less in March, dropping total output to 21.57 million barrels a day—the lowest level since June 2020. Iraq accounted for most of the decline, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also trimmed production, but to a lesser extent. Meanwhile, another Reuters survey suggested Saudi Arabia could hike its May crude prices to Asia, potentially hitting record highs.
Warning signs are stacking up for the economy. March saw U.S. consumer confidence tick higher, yet the expectations index slipped to 70.9—that’s a threshold often linked to recession risk. For Heather Long, chief economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, the central issue is whether this oil shock morphs into what she calls a “demand destruction shock,” where prices climb so much that spending and fuel consumption take a hit. AP News
Fed officials remain tuned to inflation signals. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid cautioned that policymakers can’t afford to relax, since rising energy prices could push up not just headline inflation but the core numbers as well. “I am focused on the risks to inflation,” he said. Reuters
If the crunch stretches out, Europe could be hit harder. On Wednesday, ECB’s Yannis Stournaras warned that “nothing can be ruled out, even a recession” if the Iran conflict continues and oil tops $150 a barrel. Reuters
Crude prices might still slip if diplomatic moves actually put more tankers on the water. OPEC+—the exporter group and its partners—had already planned to boost output starting in April; their next meeting lands on April 5. The IEA, meanwhile, is considering a fresh emergency release from its reserves. Still, HSBC’s Kim Fustier flagged that a “risk premium would persist,” citing thin inventories and battered supply chains that won’t bounce back overnight. Reuters
Right now, traders are juggling two timelines. Ceasefire chatter is ticking in one ear, while the other listens for signals from lost barrels, battered Gulf infrastructure, and a shipping network in no hurry to heal. Oil keeps hovering close to $100, but finding no solid ground.
