NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 2:46 p.m. ET — Market closed
Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) heads into the final trading week of 2025 with investors debating a familiar tension in high-growth “energy transition” names: strong narrative momentum around advanced nuclear power versus near-term volatility driven by valuation, dilution risk, and sensitivity to headline catalysts.
With U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend, Friday’s post-Christmas session is the most recent reference point—and it delivered a sharp pullback for Oklo shares even as the broader market barely moved. Oklo finished at about $76.92, down roughly 5.4% on the day. [1]
Oklo stock performance: a sharp drop on thin year-end liquidity
Oklo’s slide came during a week where liquidity across U.S. markets has been lighter than normal. On Friday, the S&P 500 ended essentially flat-to-slightly lower in quiet trading, a dynamic many strategists chalked up to the holiday lull after a strong multi-day run. [2]
Oklo, however, was anything but quiet. Market data roundups pegged Friday’s intraday move at roughly -5.5%, with the stock trading as low as the mid-$76 area and volume coming in well below its typical pace—an important point for traders trying to judge whether the move reflected broad conviction or year-end air pockets. [3]
That liquidity backdrop matters now because the coming days are packed into a shortened holiday cadence—and thin tape can exaggerate moves (up or down), especially in story-driven, pre-revenue names.
The last 24–48 hours of Oklo news: valuation warnings, sector watchlists, and “plutonium test” headlines
In the past two days, coverage around Oklo has clustered into three themes:
1) “Watchlist” positioning in the nuclear trade
A MarketBeat screen of “nuclear stocks to follow” placed Oklo among the most actively traded nuclear-related names by dollar volume, alongside peers and adjacent plays such as NuScale Power and Centrus Energy. The piece framed the group as sensitive to regulatory developments, uranium pricing, and shifts in public sentiment—especially into year-end. [4]
2) Fair value and overvaluation debate resurfacing
Investing.com’s InvestingPro reiterated a bearish valuation stance, arguing its Fair Value model flagged Oklo as “significantly overvalued” earlier in November and that the subsequent decline validated that call. The analysis cited Oklo’s pre-revenue status, negative EBITDA, and executive stock sales as factors that can amplify downside when sentiment shifts. It also published a model-derived fair value estimate around $47.73, implying a large gap versus the latest traded price. [5]
3) “Plutonium reactor test” narrative and perceived regulatory/geopolitical sensitivity
A separate market commentary from Trefis tied Friday’s selloff to renewed investor focus on Oklo’s plutonium-related testing work, suggesting the headline stirred concerns around downstream constraints (including potential export or regulatory complications). Whether or not investors agree with that framing, the takeaway is practical: plutonium-linked headlines can trigger fast sentiment swings in a stock that already trades heavily on expectations. [6]
What Oklo actually said about plutonium-related testing
Oklo itself has been explicit about why it is involved in plutonium-related experimental work. In a Dec. 17 press release, the company said it has been conducting a multi-day fast-spectrum plutonium critical test suite with Los Alamos National Laboratory at the DOE’s National Criticality Experiments Research Center. Oklo described this as producing benchmark data to support “Pluto,” a plutonium-fueled fast test reactor project selected under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, and as part of efforts to evaluate surplus plutonium as a “bridge fuel.” [7]
In that release, Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte described surplus government fuel materials as a potential near-term enabler while broader fuel supply chains scale, arguing that “bridge fuel” could help bring more clean power online sooner. [8]
For investors, the nuance is important: Oklo positions this as technical validation work under DOE oversight, but the market may still react to the word “plutonium” with a higher sensitivity than it would to other reactor-fuel headlines.
Analysts and price targets: still wide, still mixed
Despite Friday’s drop, Wall Street expectations for Oklo remain widely dispersed—typical for a company that is still pre-revenue and heavily milestone-driven.
MarketBeat’s recap of recent Street research described the consensus rating as “Hold” with an average price target around $102.87, while also noting that individual views range from bullish to bearish. [9]
The same roundup cited several notable actions over the past month and a half, including:
- Wedbush reiterating an Outperform rating with a $150 target (Nov. 12). [10]
- UBS raising its target to $95 while keeping a Neutral stance (Dec. 3). [11]
- Seaport Research Partners upgrading to Strong-Buy (Dec. 8). [12]
- Citigroup reaffirming a Neutral rating (Nov. 24). [13]
The spread between targets—and the fact that multiple firms remain neutral even after Oklo’s major 2025 run—underscores how much of the bull case depends on execution and regulatory progress, not near-term financials.
The core bull vs. bear debate: regulatory momentum versus cash needs
Bull case: DOE milestones and “build the fuel chain” progress
Oklo argues it is advancing tangible steps toward deployment. In a Dec. 16 announcement, the company said the DOE’s Idaho Operations Office approved the Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) for Oklo’s Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at Idaho National Laboratory, marking the start of assembly of the facility. Oklo described the PDSA as the first facility approved under DOE’s Fuel Line Pilot Program and laid out additional safety-basis steps ahead (including a final Documented Safety Analysis and readiness review). [14]
Investors who are constructive on Oklo tend to view these as critical “de-risking” datapoints—evidence that the company is progressing through real gating items rather than just expanding a narrative.
Bear case: pre-revenue reality, dilution risk, and the cost curve ahead
At the same time, Oklo is still a company without revenue today, and public filings and third-party analyses emphasize that reality. Reuters’ company profile describes Oklo as developing fast fission power plants and advanced fuel recycling, with financial statements reflecting ongoing losses rather than operating revenue. [15]
Recent commentary has also emphasized capital intensity. A Motley Fool analysis published Sunday warned that small modular reactor developers may face years of spending before meaningful revenue, highlighting the likelihood of additional funding needs that could dilute shareholders. It also cited estimates (attributed in that piece to S&P Global Market Intelligence) indicating very large future spending requirements relative to current cash levels. [16]
Separately, MarketBeat and InvestingPro both pointed to recent insider selling as a sentiment overhang during the stock’s decline—an issue that often gets amplified when the broader market is thin and catalysts are scarce. [17]
Market context: why Monday could feel “bigger” than usual
Because it’s Sunday afternoon in New York, Oklo won’t trade again until Monday’s session. For U.S. stocks, the NYSE lists its core session as 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended sessions available on certain venues. [18]
Three market factors make the next open worth watching closely:
1) Futures reopen Sunday evening
Equity index futures are scheduled to reopen Sunday evening. CME’s E-mini S&P 500 futures listing shows trading hours that begin Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET (with daily maintenance breaks). That can shape Monday’s risk tone before cash equities open. [19]
2) New Year’s holiday schedule compresses positioning
The market is heading into a holiday-shortened week. Investopedia’s holiday schedule notes that stocks trade a full day on New Year’s Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 31), while stocks and bonds are closed on New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026). It also notes bond markets typically close early on Dec. 31. [20]
For single-name momentum stocks like OKLO, compressed calendars can intensify moves as traders manage tax positioning, window dressing, and risk into a long weekend.
3) Macro data and Fed minutes land before the holiday
Investors going into Monday should also note the scheduled catalysts that can shift broader risk appetite—especially for high-beta thematic names.
Investopedia’s “week ahead” preview highlighted pending home sales (Monday), Case-Shiller home prices (Tuesday), and minutes from the December FOMC meeting (Tuesday), with jobless claims later in the week. [21]
Even when those releases don’t relate directly to Oklo, they can influence rates and risk sentiment—key drivers for long-duration growth stories.
What investors should know before the next Oklo session
With the market closed today, the most actionable “prep list” for OKLO investors is less about minute-to-minute price action and more about what could move sentiment quickly when liquidity returns:
- Track any DOE headlines tied to plutonium disposition or advanced nuclear programs. Reuters previously reported the DOE expected to begin announcing recipients of surplus plutonium by year-end—relevant timing given the calendar week. [22]
- Watch for follow-through (or reversal) after Friday’s thin-volume drop. Volume well below average can sometimes signal a move driven more by liquidity conditions than a fundamental reset—but it can also precede larger trend moves if sellers return on Monday. [23]
- Keep an eye on dilution narrative risk. Oklo’s capital needs and funding strategy remain central to many bearish and neutral cases, and the stock has shown sensitivity to that theme in prior pullbacks. [24]
- Use the holiday calendar to manage expectations. Fewer sessions before New Year’s Day can mean fewer natural “reset points” for positioning—often translating into larger intraday ranges for the most volatile tickers. [25]
Bottom line
Oklo stock enters Monday with momentum investors looking for stabilization after a sharp year-end pullback, while fundamental skeptics continue to argue that valuation has run ahead of near-term financial reality. The next session’s tone will likely be set by a mix of (1) broader risk sentiment into the New Year’s schedule, and (2) whether nuclear-sector headlines—especially around fuel pathways and federal programs—push investors back into the trade or keep them on the sidelines. [26]
References
1. www.fool.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.trefis.com, 7. oklo.com, 8. oklo.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. oklo.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.fool.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.nyse.com, 19. www.cmegroup.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.fool.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.investing.com
