New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (2:53 p.m. ET).
Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) shares are trading sharply lower in the post‑Christmas, low‑liquidity session, a day when broader U.S. equities have been relatively subdued. At the latest available quote, OKLO was $76.81, down $4.50 (-5.53%), after touching an intraday low near $76.28 with volume nearing 4.93 million shares.
The selloff comes amid a busy December news cycle for the advanced nuclear developer—highlighted by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) progress at Idaho National Laboratory, recent plutonium-related testing work, and fresh financing flexibility that investors often read as both a runway extension and a potential dilution overhang.
What’s happening with OKLO stock right now
As of mid‑afternoon in New York, the NYSE is open and trading normally heading into the 4:00 p.m. ET close.
Oklo’s decline is also occurring against a generally quiet tape: broad market proxies like SPY and DIA are slightly lower while QQQ is modestly higher—consistent with a choppy, thin holiday session rather than a broad risk‑off panic.
Mainstream market coverage has similarly described U.S. stocks as drifting/lower in post‑holiday trading. [1]
Why the sharper move in OKLO? There’s no single confirmed catalyst today tied to the intraday drop. But investors have several Oklo‑specific storylines to digest, and OKLO has shown a pattern of outsized moves around company updates and financing headlines.
The December catalysts investors are pricing in
1) DOE approval at Idaho National Laboratory: fuel facility moves forward
On December 16, 2025, Oklo announced that DOE’s Idaho Operations Office approved a Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) for the company’s Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility (A3F) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—a step Oklo framed as enabling the start of assembly. Oklo also described A3F as the first facility approved under DOE’s Fuel Line Pilot Program, positioning it as part of a faster pathway for fuel‑cycle infrastructure. [2]
Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said the work supports fuel supply constraints and the economics of Oklo’s “powerhouses,” and Oklo reiterated plans to repurpose fuel from the legacy Experimental Breeder Reactor‑II (EBR‑II) for the Aurora‑INL project. [3]
Why markets care: for early‑stage nuclear developers, tangible DOE progress (especially at INL) is often interpreted as “execution proof” in a space where timelines can slip.
2) Plutonium fast‑spectrum testing with Los Alamos
On December 17, 2025, Oklo reported a fast‑spectrum plutonium criticality experiment conducted with Los Alamos National Laboratory, describing it as a step toward validating performance and safety characteristics related to its design and plutonium fuel strategy. [4]
Why markets care: plutonium fuel can be a headline‑risk topic. Reuters has previously noted that Oklo’s fuel choices can raise nuclear proliferation questions, even as the company argues safeguards make the material unsuitable for weapons use. [5]
3) Siemens Energy supply chain “de‑risking”
On November 19, 2025, Oklo announced a binding contract with Siemens Energy to accelerate procurement for the power conversion system (including a steam turbine and generator package) for its first Aurora powerhouse project. Oklo positioned the deal as a way to lock in long‑lead equipment earlier and support its deployment schedule. [6]
Why markets care: investors often reward concrete, name‑brand industrial partnerships that reduce execution and procurement uncertainty.
The biggest financial headline: Oklo’s $1.5 billion at‑the‑market equity program
A key driver of volatility for high‑growth, pre‑revenue stocks is capital strategy.
On December 4, 2025, Oklo filed an SEC Form 8‑K disclosing it entered into an equity distribution agreement allowing it to sell, from time to time, up to $1.5 billion of Class A common stock via an at‑the‑market (ATM) offering program, through a syndicate of major banks. [7]
This matters in two directions:
- Positive: more financial flexibility to fund long development cycles and plant buildout.
- Negative: a larger ATM can create a dilution overhang—investors may worry the company will issue shares into strength, potentially capping upside in the near term.
Oklo’s most recent quarterly filing also underscores that the company has been actively funding its roadmap through equity issuance and maintains a large liquidity buffer. In its Form 10‑Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Oklo reported cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt securities of about $1.184 billion, and disclosed net losses and continuing operating cash burn (typical for the sector at this stage). [8]
The same 10‑Q shows Oklo raised substantial proceeds through stock sales earlier in 2025 (including ATM activity). [9]
Insider selling: what’s real, what’s noise
Another sentiment factor this week: insider filings.
SEC Form 4 filings show that Jacob DeWitte (co‑founder/CEO) and Caroline Cochran (co‑founder/COO) reported share sales dated December 22, 2025. The filings state the transactions were executed under a Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan adopted on March 31, 2025, and include sales through grantor retained annuity trusts (GRATs). [10]
Investors often react quickly to insider selling headlines, but 10b5‑1 plans are generally viewed as less informative than discretionary, spur‑of‑the‑moment sales—still, the optics can weigh on a momentum stock in a thin market.
NRC licensing: the timeline that matters most for long-term holders
Oklo’s long‑term valuation thesis hinges on regulatory execution.
- Oklo has emphasized progress on licensing pathways and regulatory engagement, including a roadmap for NRC interactions and submissions. [11]
- The NRC has also documented the company’s earlier licensing history, including the agency’s decision to deny (without prejudice) a prior combined license application in 2022—an important reminder that the pathway is real and not guaranteed. [12]
- More recently, Oklo announced that the NRC accepted a key “principal design criteria” topical report for review and outlined an expected timeline for draft feedback in early 2026. [13]
For investors, this is why OKLO can swing hard: licensing milestones are binary‑feeling events, and the market frequently reprices probability as new NRC/DOE signals emerge.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street is landing
OKLO has attracted a growing set of initiations and target revisions, and the range is wide—typical for an early‑stage energy technology story.
Recent notable calls include:
- Needham initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $135 price target (reported by multiple outlets). [14]
- Seaport Global Securities upgraded to Buy with a $150 price target. [15]
- UBS raised its target to $95 while maintaining Neutral. [16]
- Bank of America (BofA) initiated earlier in 2025 with a Buy rating and a $92 price target, with analysis tied to AI‑driven power demand and Oklo’s perceived strategic positioning. [17]
Aggregators tracking the street broadly show a bullish skew but still substantial dispersion—highlighting how sensitive forecasts are to assumptions about licensing dates, plant economics, and customer conversion. [18]
What investors should know before the next session
Because the NYSE is open right now, the key “next session” question is less about reopening after a holiday and more about how OKLO trades into the close and what could hit the tape after hours.
Here are the practical items investors typically watch for OKLO specifically:
- Closing volatility and liquidity
- Holiday weeks can amplify late‑day swings—especially in high‑beta names—because fewer orders can move price more than usual. [19]
- Any follow‑on filings tied to the ATM
- With a $1.5B ATM authorized, traders often monitor SEC updates for prospectus supplements or ATM usage disclosures. [20]
- Regulatory and DOE headlines
- Even “process” updates (NRC acceptance steps, DOE documentation milestones) can act like catalysts in pre‑revenue nuclear. Recent examples include the DOE PDSA approval at INL and Oklo’s Los Alamos experiment disclosure. [21]
- Insider-trading optics
- The Form 4 sales were under a 10b5‑1 plan, but markets can still react to additional filings, clarifications, or commentary. [22]
- Know the next “calendar risk,” but verify dates
- Earnings calendars differ by provider. Zacks lists an estimated March 23, 2026 earnings date, while other trackers list late‑March dates; investors should treat these as estimates until Oklo confirms. [23]
Next regular session: if today is Friday, the next standard trading day is Monday, December 29, 2025 (barring any exchange schedule changes).
The bottom line on OKLO stock today
Oklo remains one of the market’s most closely watched “AI‑meets‑energy” nuclear narratives—supported by a stream of credibility‑building milestones (DOE steps at INL, supply chain contracting, ongoing NRC engagement) but also defined by the reality of no current revenue, a long and uncertain regulatory timeline, and the math of financing and dilution that comes with building capital‑intensive infrastructure. [24]
In the near term, OKLO’s move today underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in thin markets. In the long term, the stock’s trajectory still comes back to a few core checkpoints: NRC progress, customer conversions into binding PPAs, fuel supply execution, and the pace at which DOE-to-commercial milestones turn into buildable, financeable plants.
References
1. apnews.com, 2. oklo.com, 3. oklo.com, 4. oklo.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. oklo.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. oklo.com, 12. www.nrc.gov, 13. oklo.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. oklo.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. oklo.com
