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Okta Stock Jumps After Q4 Beat, but Slowest Growth Forecast Since IPO Still Looms
6 March 2026
2 mins read

Okta Stock Jumps After Q4 Beat, but Slowest Growth Forecast Since IPO Still Looms

SAN FRANCISCO, March 6, 2026, 06:16 PST

Okta posted stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings, with the stock climbing $7.99 to $79.65 following the report. The company pointed to demand driven by fresh product offerings. Still, Okta kept its revenue growth outlook at 9% for the current quarter—the slowest since its IPO in 2017.

The split’s become important. Investors are weighing whether Okta’s newer AI-driven identity products and focus on bigger enterprise clients can actually reignite momentum, or if cautious software spending will leave growth hovering in the single digits. Management projected 9% revenue growth for both the April quarter and fiscal 2027, sticking with a cautious stance on the broader market.

Okta makes software for controlling access to corporate apps and data, covering employees, customers, and more often now, software agents. Its main rivals: Ping Identity and SailPoint. All three are in identity and access management—cybersecurity’s gatekeeping corner, considered relatively stable when companies start trimming tech budgets.

Okta’s revenue climbed 11% to $761 million for the quarter ended Jan. 31, beating what analysts were looking for. Adjusted earnings landed at 90 cents a share, also topping estimates. Looking ahead to the current quarter, the company put out a revenue forecast between $749 million and $753 million, with adjusted profit expected to fall in the 84 to 86 cent per share range. Subscription backlog reached $4.827 billion at the end of the quarter—15% higher, with $2.513 billion of that due in the next year, a 12% jump.

Chief Executive Todd McKinnon described AI as “redefining the future of software,” telling analysts, “to get AI right, you have to get identity right.” About 30% of fourth-quarter bookings came from newer offerings, like tools for AI agents. Okta Identity Governance, meanwhile, has now topped 2,000 customers. Okta

Analysts dialed back their caution following the report. UBS’s Roger Boyd flagged the potential for growth to “stabilize and potentially accelerate.” Over at TD Cowen, Shaul Eyal pointed to “multiple growth drivers” now in play for Okta. On Friday, BMO Capital’s Keith Bachman bumped the stock up to Outperform and hiked his price target to $97. Investors.com

Okta finance chief Brett Tighe said the company saw sales productivity pick up over the year, capping the quarter with nearly $1.3 billion in total contract value—a record. Of the top 20 deals, partners played a part in 18. The number of customers spending at least $100,000 annually reached 5,100, while those above $1 million jumped 16% to 545.

The trickier issue: staying power. Okta’s dollar-based net retention rate sat at 106%—unchanged from the previous quarter. Tighe pointed out that accelerating growth is going to need more upsells and fresh accounts. He flagged that AI-agent revenue remains “still fairly small,” and warned that as more professional-services work shifts to partners, fiscal 2027 revenue growth could take about a one-point hit. Q4 Communications

The external environment hasn’t gotten any friendlier. According to Reuters, analysts are flagging tighter budgets and sluggish hiring as potential headwinds, given that Okta prices its software by employee count. Still, Chief Operating Officer Eric Kelleher noted seat cuts haven’t shown up in the company’s numbers in a material way so far.

Okta closed out January sitting on $2.553 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company repurchased 875,150 shares for $79 million as part of its $1 billion buyback plan. Okta also said it intends to use its cash to pay off the remaining $350 million in 2026 convertible notes once they hit maturity in June.

Stock Market Today

  • 3 Undervalued Canadian Stocks to Watch for Next Earnings Season
    May 13, 2026, 4:48 PM EDT. Magna International, Nutrien, and Teck Resources present undervalued opportunities ahead of the next earnings wave. Magna, a major auto supplier, reported strong Q1 2026 earnings, beating estimates despite tariff-driven sales guidance cuts, trading at a modest 26.4 times earnings with a 3.2% dividend yield. Nutrien, a top fertilizer producer, posted significant profit growth in Q1 2026 amid rising fertilizer prices and supply constraints, trading at 14.6 times earnings with a 3% dividend yield. Both companies' strong free cash flow and steady dividends underscore their appeal in volatile markets. Investors should monitor these stocks for potential surprises and value as earnings season approaches on the TSX.

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