ON Semiconductor Corporation (onsemi) stock is in focus on Monday, December 22, 2025, as investors balance index-driven flows, a fresh strategic partnership in gallium nitride (GaN), and an aggressive capital-return plan—all against a backdrop of strengthening sentiment across chip shares during a holiday-shortened week. [1]
Below is a comprehensive look at the latest news, forward-looking signals, and market forecasts shaping ON stock right now.
What’s moving ON Semiconductor stock on Dec. 22, 2025
1) Nasdaq-100 removal takes effect today—watch the “index flow” impact
One of the most immediate near-term technical factors is that ON Semiconductor has been removed from the Nasdaq-100 as part of the index’s annual reconstitution, with the change taking effect prior to market open on December 22, 2025. [2]
Why it matters:
- Passive funds and ETFs that track the Nasdaq-100 typically rebalance to mirror index changes, which can create one-time selling pressure (or at least heavier trading volume) around the effective date.
- Historically, these moves can be short-lived, but they sometimes amplify volatility—especially if broader market liquidity is thin (as is often the case heading into Christmas week).
Importantly, a Nasdaq-100 removal is not a statement about business quality; it is an index methodology outcome tied to market capitalization and composition rules. [3]
2) Semiconductors are broadly stronger into the holiday week
The broader tape matters, too. On Dec. 22, U.S. equities advanced and chipmakers participated in the move, helped by a renewed bid for technology shares and upbeat signals elsewhere in the semiconductor space. [4]
For ON stock, that backdrop can cushion index-related turbulence—particularly if investors rotate into “lagging” semiconductor names that have been pressured earlier in the cycle.
The biggest fundamental headline: onsemi and GlobalFoundries partner on next-gen GaN (starting at 650V)
In the most strategically meaningful company announcement this month, onsemi said it has signed a collaboration agreement with GlobalFoundries (GF) to develop and manufacture advanced GaN power products using GF’s 200mm eMode GaN-on-silicon process technology, starting with 650V devices. [5]
Key details investors are reacting to:
- The effort is aimed at high-growth power markets where efficiency and power density matter: AI data centers, EVs, renewable energy, industrial systems, and aerospace/defense/security. [6]
- onsemi expects to begin providing customer samples in the first half of 2026, with an ambition to scale toward volume production. [7]
- The company positions the move as an expansion across the “full spectrum” of GaN—from lower-voltage lateral GaN up through vertical GaN—supporting the longer-term narrative that power semiconductors are becoming a bottleneck technology for electrification and AI infrastructure. [8]
From a stock perspective, the market typically treats these deals as multi-quarter or multi-year option value: near-term revenue impact may be limited, but the partnership can strengthen the product roadmap and supply chain positioning if execution stays on track.
Automotive focus: FORVIA HELLA deal extends a long-term power semiconductor relationship
On Dec. 11, onsemi announced a new long-term agreement with FORVIA HELLA, centered on adopting onsemi’s PowerTrench® T10 MOSFET technology across advanced automotive platforms. [9]
Highlights that matter for investors:
- onsemi says the T10 MOSFETs deliver improvements in efficiency, power density, and system cost, and that they’re manufactured at the company’s facility in East Fishkill, New York. [10]
- The announcement ties directly into the megatrend of vehicle electrification and the shift toward software-defined vehicles, where power management and reliability requirements rise sharply. [11]
This matters because a key debate around ON stock in 2025 has been the timing of a cyclical recovery in auto and industrial demand. Long-term platform engagements like this can support the “durability” case—even if near-term auto build rates remain uneven.
Capital return catalyst: a $6 billion share repurchase program starts Jan. 1, 2026
onsemi also made waves with a major capital allocation headline: its board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $6 billion over the next three years, scheduled to launch on January 1, 2026, after the prior $3 billion authorization expires on Dec. 31, 2025. [12]
Notable details:
- Under the prior authorization, onsemi says it repurchased $2.1 billion of common stock over the last three years and spent approximately 100% of 2025 free cash flow on buybacks. [13]
- The company emphasizes that buybacks will coexist with investment in strategic initiatives across automotive, industrial, and AI data center markets. [14]
For the stock, buybacks can matter in two ways:
- mechanically reducing share count over time (supporting per-share metrics), and
- signaling management’s confidence in long-term intrinsic value—though investors also watch whether repurchases compete with capex and R&D needs.
Manufacturing footprint and restructuring: non-cash impairment charges of $200M–$300M
In mid-November, onsemi disclosed in a Form 8-K that management approved additional pre-tax non-cash impairment and accelerated depreciation charges of $200 million to $300 million, tied to long-lived manufacturing assets at certain facilities, as part of ongoing restructuring/cost reduction actions. [15]
Key points:
- The company estimated these actions could reduce recurring depreciation expense by about $10M–$15M in 2026. [16]
- Most of the charges were expected to be incurred between now and the first two quarters of 2026, and the company did not expect material future cash expenditures tied to these non-cash charges. [17]
This is relevant because it connects to a core investor concern: aligning capacity and manufacturing strategy with demand in EV/auto, industrial, and AI power infrastructure.
Earnings context: AI data center strength vs. cautious EV/auto demand
In its most recent quarterly update (Q3 2025), Reuters reported that onsemi beat Wall Street expectations on revenue and adjusted profit, supported by AI data center-related demand for power products, while noting more cautious spending by automotive customers on silicon carbide amid weak EV demand in Europe and North America. [18]
Reported figures and outlook highlighted by Reuters:
- Revenue: $1.55 billion (vs. $1.52 billion estimate) [19]
- Adjusted EPS: $0.63 (vs. $0.59 estimate) [20]
- Q4 revenue outlook: $1.48B–$1.58B
- Q4 profit outlook: $0.57–$0.67 per share [21]
The key “read-through” for ON stock going into 2026 is whether AI power demand can continue to offset a slower-than-hoped recovery in EV-related silicon carbide demand.
Industry forecast tailwinds: global semiconductor sales are projected to approach $1 trillion in 2026
Macro context is supportive. In early December, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), citing the WSTS autumn forecast, said global semiconductor sales are projected to grow to $772.2B in 2025 and reach $975.4B in 2026 (revised upward from a prior estimate). [22]
For a power and sensing-focused company like onsemi, that kind of growth outlook tends to reinforce investor interest in:
- energy-efficient power conversion,
- electrification (vehicles, grids, industrial),
- and power-hungry AI infrastructure.
Analyst forecasts for ON stock: price targets cluster around the high-$50s/low-$60s, with a wide range
Analyst expectations remain mixed to cautiously constructive, and the dispersion in targets is telling:
- TipRanks shows an average price target around $59.55, with a reported high of $80 and low of $50 (based on its tracked analyst set). [23]
- MarketBeat lists a consensus target near $59.35, also citing a wide high/low range. [24]
- MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page shows an average target price around $59.00 (with dozens of ratings). [25]
Recent notable adjustments (as reported via TheFly on TipRanks):
- Truist raised its price target to $57 from $51 while keeping a Hold rating. [26]
- Bank of America raised its target to $60 (maintaining a Neutral stance). [27]
- Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $60 while keeping a Neutral rating. [28]
And there are still more bullish takes in the market: for example, a recent commentary article highlighted an Evercore ISI analyst target of $80 (framing it as meaningful upside into 2026). [29]
What this implies: the “base case” Street view appears to be modest upside from current levels, but with meaningful disagreement tied to how quickly auto/EV normalizes and how large AI power becomes for onsemi’s revenue mix.
What to watch next: near-term catalysts and risk factors for ON Semiconductor
Catalysts investors are likely to focus on
- Post-reconstitution trading: whether Nasdaq-100 related selling fades quickly or lingers into year-end rebalancing. [30]
- Buyback start on Jan. 1, 2026: how quickly the new authorization translates into actual repurchases. [31]
- GaN execution timeline: the credibility of the “samples in H1 2026” milestone and eventual volume ramp. [32]
- Auto and industrial demand stabilization: especially for silicon carbide exposure, where prior commentary has pointed to softer EV conditions in key geographies. [33]
Key risks
- Cyclicality: a slower recovery in automotive/industrial can keep utilization and margins under pressure. [34]
- Execution risk in new technology ramps: GaN and advanced packaging roadmaps can slip if yields, qualification, or customer adoption take longer than expected. [35]
- Capital allocation trade-offs: large buybacks are supportive, but investors will watch ongoing investment requirements and the balance between returns and reinvestment. [36]
Bottom line on ON stock today
As of Dec. 22, 2025, ON Semiconductor stock is being pulled by two forces at once:
- Short-term technical pressure/volatility from its Nasdaq-100 removal, and
- Longer-term strategic support from a string of power-focused moves—most notably the GlobalFoundries GaN partnership, the FORVIA HELLA automotive agreement, and the upcoming $6B buyback. [37]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.onsemi.com, 6. www.onsemi.com, 7. www.onsemi.com, 8. www.onsemi.com, 9. www.onsemi.com, 10. www.onsemi.com, 11. www.onsemi.com, 12. www.onsemi.com, 13. www.onsemi.com, 14. www.onsemi.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.semiconductors.org, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.fool.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.onsemi.com, 32. www.onsemi.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.onsemi.com, 36. www.onsemi.com, 37. www.nasdaq.com
