Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
ON Semiconductor Corporation (onsemi) heads into a holiday-shortened trading week with two unusual forces likely to dominate price action: (1) index-driven flows tied to ON’s removal from the Nasdaq-100, and (2) a steady drumbeat of strategic announcements aimed at power semiconductors for AI infrastructure, EVs, and industrial energy systems.
As of the latest close, ON stock finished at $55.21. [1]
While fundamentals matter over time, the coming week could be shaped by liquidity (thin holiday trading), rebalancing mechanics, and headline sensitivity—especially around onsemi’s expanding presence in gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) power devices.
Below is a comprehensive week-ahead briefing (Dec. 22–26), including the latest news, analyst forecasts, and technical signals available as of Dec. 21, 2025.
ON stock snapshot heading into the week
- Last close: $55.21 [2]
- 52-week range:$31.04 – $67.95 [3]
- Market cap (intraday estimate, widely reported): about $22–23B [4]
- Notable trading feature: Friday’s volume was unusually large (tens of millions of shares), consistent with index and derivatives activity heading into the Nasdaq-100 effective date and the broader “quadruple witching” period referenced by Nasdaq around the reconstitution timing. [5]
This matters because heavy volume around index events can distort short-term moves—creating sharp one- or two-day swings that don’t always reflect a change in business conditions.
The biggest near-term catalyst: ON exits the Nasdaq-100 effective Monday, Dec. 22
The headline most likely to affect the week-ahead tape is straightforward:
- Nasdaq announced that ON Semiconductor will be removed from the Nasdaq-100 Index as part of the annual reconstitution, effective prior to market open on Monday, December 22, 2025. [6]
- Reuters also reported the change and noted the effective date of Dec. 22. [7]
Why the Nasdaq-100 removal can move ON stock (even without “new” fundamentals)
Being removed from a major index can trigger mechanical selling from funds that track it (directly or via derivatives). Nasdaq emphasized that the Nasdaq-100 underpins 200+ tracking products with over $600B in assets under management, including the Invesco QQQ Trust. [8]
That doesn’t mean ON stock must fall—markets often price in these changes ahead of time, and much of the forced trading can concentrate near the reconstitution window. But it does raise the odds of:
- outsized moves early in the week, especially Monday;
- wider bid/ask spreads in thin holiday liquidity;
- short-lived dislocations (quick drops and rebounds) as liquidity providers and opportunistic buyers step in.
Week-ahead implication: If ON moves sharply on Monday, investors will be watching whether it looks like flow-driven pressure (fast, volume-heavy, then stabilizing) or a sentiment shift that persists beyond the rebalancing event.
Company headlines investors are digesting now
onsemi has been active with announcements centered on next-generation power technologies. For the week ahead, these headlines function as sentiment anchors—especially if the broader semiconductor group moves on AI-infrastructure narratives.
1) $6 billion share repurchase authorization (starts Jan. 1, 2026)
In mid-November, onsemi announced its board authorized a $6.0 billion share repurchase program, scheduled to begin January 1, 2026 and expected to run over three years. [9]
The company also described the move as a scaling up from the prior three-year period in which it repurchased about $2.1B of stock. [10]
Week-ahead read-through: Even though the authorization begins after this week, buyback headlines can help frame market thinking—particularly during volatility around the Nasdaq-100 removal—because buybacks are often viewed as a potential demand backstop (though timing and pace are at management’s discretion).
2) GaN push accelerates: collaboration with GlobalFoundries
onsemi and GlobalFoundries announced a collaboration to develop next-generation GaN power devices, aimed at supporting AI data centers, automotive, industrial, and consumer applications. [11]
Key details disclosed include:
- focus on 650V GaN technology;
- leveraging GlobalFoundries’ 200mm GaN-on-silicon platform;
- sampling expected in the first half of 2026. [12]
Week-ahead read-through: Investors are likely to view this as part of the broader “AI power” theme—where the constraint isn’t just compute chips, but power conversion and efficiency across the data center.
3) Separate GaN scale-up plan with Innoscience
Earlier in December, onsemi and Innoscience announced plans (via an MoU) to collaborate to speed the rollout of a low- and medium-voltage GaN power portfolio, referencing:
- 40V to 200V device focus;
- 200mm GaN-on-silicon manufacturing scaling;
- a GaN power market projected to reach $2.9B by 2030 (as cited in the release). [13]
Week-ahead read-through: Two GaN headlines in the same month reinforces a narrative: onsemi is positioning itself to be a bigger supplier of power devices tied to AI infrastructure and energy efficiency—not just EV SiC.
4) New EliteSiC MOSFET packaging aimed at thermal constraints
onsemi also announced EliteSiC MOSFETs in an industry-standard T2PAK “top-cool” package, highlighting improved thermal transfer for applications including EVs, solar infrastructure, and energy storage. [14]
The release noted 650V and 950V EliteSiC MOSFETs in T2PAK, and stated initial devices were shipping to lead customers, with additional products planned for Q4 2025 and beyond. [15]
Week-ahead read-through: The market has been debating EV demand and SiC inventory digestion for much of 2025. Product/packaging news can help keep attention on content growth per system (thermal performance and efficiency), even when end-market unit growth is uneven.
5) Automotive power design win extension with FORVIA HELLA
onsemi and FORVIA HELLA announced an extension of their collaboration, pointing to onsemi’s PowerTrench T10 MOSFET technology and indicating manufacturing in East Fishkill, New York, with shipments expected to begin in 2026. [16]
Week-ahead read-through: This reinforces onsemi’s continued emphasis on automotive-grade power semis, even as the EV market has shown pockets of weakness.
6) Acquisition: Vcore Power Technology (from Aura Semiconductor)
onsemi announced it completed the acquisition of Vcore Power Technology from Aura Semiconductor, describing Vcore’s capabilities around power management for AI data centers—specifically the “power tree” spanning grid to core power delivery. [17]
Week-ahead read-through: Investors tracking AI infrastructure spending increasingly watch the “boring” parts of the stack—power delivery, conversion, and thermal constraints—because those often become real bottlenecks at scale.
7) Europe capacity support: EU approval of Czech state aid for onsemi expansion
The European Commission approved €450 million in Czech state aid to support onsemi’s €1.64 billion investment related to manufacturing capacity expansion, as described in the Commission’s announcement. [18]
Week-ahead read-through: This is a longer-term fundamental support point—less about next week’s tape, more about capacity and strategic supply chain positioning in power semiconductors.
Fundamentals and near-term business backdrop: AI strength vs. cautious auto spending
The clearest high-level operating picture still comes from onsemi’s last major quarterly update covered by Reuters:
- Reuters reported onsemi beat third-quarter estimates and cited AI-driven demand supporting data-center-related power products. [19]
- The same report noted automotive customers were spending more cautiously on silicon carbide chips, amid sluggish EV demand in Europe and North America. [20]
- For guidance, Reuters reported onsemi expected Q4 revenue of $1.48B–$1.58B and Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.57–$0.67. [21]
Week-ahead implication: If the semiconductor sector moves on “AI capex” headlines, onsemi’s positioning is more nuanced than a pure AI GPU story. Bulls will emphasize data-center power growth and GaN optionality; bears will emphasize EV/industrial cyclicality and the timing of demand recovery.
Wall Street forecasts and analyst sentiment as of Dec. 21, 2025
Analyst coverage into late December shows a mixed but stabilizing stance.
Consensus view (broad)
MarketBeat’s summary (based on its tracked analyst ratings) indicates:
- consensus rating: “Hold”
- average 12-month target: $59.35
- target range: $50 to $85 [22]
This frames ON as a stock where analysts see modest upside from current levels, but not a uniformly high-conviction consensus.
Recent notable analyst updates
- Truist raised its target to $57 from $51 and kept a Hold rating, referencing the AI-infrastructure group and ongoing “power/funding” constraints even while calling the group “cheap” relative to growth (per TheFly via TipRanks). [23]
- CFRA maintained its 2025 EPS estimate cited in its note and set a target of $64 (per Investing.com’s report on the rating action). [24]
- TD Cowen raised its price target to $60 and maintained a Buy rating (per Investing.com). [25]
- Evercore ISI was cited as raising its target to $80 while maintaining an Outperform rating (reported via MT Newswires listing). [26]
Week-ahead implication: In practical terms, the Street isn’t pricing ON as a “can’t miss” momentum AI play. Instead, it’s increasingly treated as a power semiconductor platform story with multiple paths to re-acceleration (GaN, AI power, EV efficiency), but with cyclical end-market risks that keep many ratings cautious.
Technical setup: what market technicians are watching
In a holiday week, technical levels can matter more than usual because thin liquidity can exaggerate moves.
Two widely followed technical-summary sources currently suggest a constructive tone:
- TipRanks’ technical snapshot shows an overall “Buy” signal, with RSI near neutral (around the low-50s) and references to nearby support/resistance levels. [27]
- Investing.com’s technical page shows pivot levels clustered in the mid-$54 to mid-$55 area and labels the daily signal “Strong Buy” based on its indicator set. [28]
Week-ahead implication: If index-driven selling pushes ON down early Monday, technicians will be watching whether the stock can stabilize above recent support zones and reclaim key levels quickly—often a sign the move was mainly flow-related.
(Reminder: technical indicators are descriptive, not predictive, and can change rapidly in low-volume holiday sessions.)
Week-ahead market calendar: the macro events that could spill into semiconductors
This is a holiday-shortened week in U.S. markets, and that alone changes the trading texture.
Investopedia’s calendar highlights:
- Markets closed Thursday (Christmas)
- Early close Wednesday (Dec. 24): stocks close at 1:00 p.m. ET, bonds at 2:00 p.m. ET [29]
- Key U.S. data releases (notably Tuesday) including an initial look at Q3 GDP, plus durable goods, industrial production/capacity utilization, and consumer confidence. [30]
Why it matters for ON stock:
Even though onsemi is a single name, it trades within a broader semiconductor risk basket that is sensitive to:
- rate expectations (discount rates),
- growth sentiment (GDP/consumer confidence),
- and AI-capex narratives (which can be amplified in thin liquidity).
Scenarios for ON stock this week
Here are three realistic ways the week could play out—without pretending anyone can forecast the tape perfectly.
Scenario A: “Flow shock” Monday, then stabilization
- Monday opens with volatility tied to Nasdaq-100 removal mechanics.
- Selling pressure fades as discretionary buyers step in.
- ON settles back into a range by Tuesday/Wednesday.
What would support this: big early volume, then tightening spreads and improving intraday structure after the first hour.
Scenario B: Index event + macro risk-off = extended weakness
- If markets broadly sell off (hot data, risk-off sentiment), ON could see a second wave of pressure after the index event.
- This would look less like a one-day dislocation and more like a multi-session trend.
What would confirm it: weakness persists even after market-wide conditions stabilize, or sector peers underperform in sympathy.
Scenario C: Holiday squeeze higher (thin liquidity works both ways)
- Low liquidity can also magnify upside, especially if buyers focus on:
- buyback authorization narrative,
- GaN expansion headlines,
- or upbeat AI-infrastructure sentiment.
What would confirm it: quick reclaim of prior levels on modest volume, and ON outperforming broader semis.
Bottom line for the week ahead
For the week of Dec. 22–26, 2025, ON Semiconductor stock is likely to be influenced by index mechanics first, fundamentals second—at least in the very near term.
The core story investors are weighing remains consistent:
- AI data-center power demand is a growth engine (and management/coverage has highlighted this theme). [31]
- Auto/EV SiC demand has been choppier, keeping consensus positioning cautious. [32]
- The company is pushing hard into GaN and packaging/thermal innovation, while also planning a sizeable $6B buyback beginning in early 2026. [33]
- Analyst targets cluster around the high-$50s on average, with notable dispersion between cautious and more bullish firms. [34]
Finally, keep an eye on the next major “fundamental checkpoint”: onsemi has not confirmed the next earnings date, but several major calendars estimate it around February 9, 2026. [35]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.onsemi.com, 10. www.onsemi.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.onsemi.com, 15. www.onsemi.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.onsemi.com, 18. ec.europa.eu, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.marketscreener.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.onsemi.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com
