As U.S. markets get ready to open on Monday, December 8, 2025, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) is heading into a pivotal week shaped by its upcoming earnings, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, and a flood of fresh analysis published on December 7.
Below is a structured, news-style briefing on Oracle stock today, the latest forecasts, and what traders and investors should watch before the bell.
Quick takeaways for Monday’s open
- Last close: Oracle finished Friday at $217.58, up 1.52% on the day, outperforming the broader market. [1]
- Drawdown from the top: ORCL is still about 35–40% below its 52‑week high around $345.72, even after the recent rebound. [2]
- Valuation remains rich: The stock trades on a P/E around 50, with a market cap near $620 billion, putting it among the most expensive mega‑caps on traditional metrics. [3]
- Massive AI backlog: Oracle’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) surged to $455 billion in Q1 FY26, up 359% year over year, largely tied to huge AI and cloud contracts including OpenAI. [4]
- This week’s catalyst: Oracle reports fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on Wednesday, December 10, after the close, the same day the Fed is expected to deliver another rate cut. [5]
Oracle (ORCL) stock snapshot before Monday’s open
Price, performance and key levels
- Friday close (Dec 5, 2025):
- ORCL closed at $217.58, up 1.52% on the day and beating the S&P 500’s gain in the same session. [6]
- Trading range:
- 12‑month low: $118.86
- 12‑month high: $345.72 [7]
- Drawdown: Oracle is still about 37% below its recent peak, after what FXLeaders described as an “AI bubble” surge to over $340 followed by a sharp reset. [8]
From a fundamental snapshot:
- Market cap: ≈ $620–622 billion
- P/E ratio: ~50x trailing earnings
- Debt-to-equity: around 3–4x, signalling heavy leverage
- Dividend yield: ~0.9% [9]
This mix of mega‑cap scale, premium valuation and high leverage is exactly why so many of Sunday’s research notes zeroed in on Oracle’s AI capex and balance sheet risk.
Big catalyst #1: Q2 FY26 earnings on December 10
Official schedule
Oracle confirmed on December 2 that it will release Q2 FY26 results on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, after the close of U.S. trading, followed by a 4:00 p.m. Central Time conference call. [10]
Wall Street consensus
Fresh previews published on December 7 (notably from TipRanks and All Star Charts) highlight a fairly tight consensus: [11]
- Adjusted EPS: about $1.64, up from $1.47 in the year‑ago quarter (≈ 12% growth).
- Revenue: roughly $16.2 billion, up around 15% year over year.
- Oracle previously guided to:
- Q2 revenue growth:+12–14% in constant currency
- Q2 EPS:$1.61–1.65
TipRanks also notes Oracle has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of the last 8 quarters but missed revenue in 6 of those 8, helping explain why the stock’s post‑earnings drift has often been negative, a point echoed in Sunday’s Weekly Beat technical note. [12]
Context from the most recent quarter (Q1 FY26)
Oracle’s Q1 FY26 (reported September 9) set the stage for today’s debate: [13]
- Revenue:$14.9 billion, up 12% year over year.
- Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS):$7.2 billion, up 28%.
- OCI (cloud infrastructure) revenue:$3.3 billion, up 55%.
- RPO:$455 billion, +359% year over year, driven by a handful of multi‑billion‑dollar AI/data center deals, including a $300 billion, five‑year arrangement with OpenAI, according to multiple reports. [14]
Despite that eye‑popping backlog, Oracle slightly missed Q1 Wall Street expectations on both EPS and revenue, as MarketBeat recaps: adjusted EPS came in at $1.47 vs. $1.48 consensus on revenue of $14.93 billion vs. $15.04 billion. [15]
What the market will focus on Wednesday:
- Updated OCI growth trajectory (can 50%+ growth be sustained or even accelerate, as some analysts suggest?). [16]
- How much of that $455B+ RPO is:
- Backed by creditworthy counterparties (especially OpenAI), and
- Expected to turn into recognised revenue before 2030. [17]
- A detailed capex and funding roadmap for Oracle’s AI data center build‑out.
Sunday’s research broadly agrees: earnings guidance and commentary on funding AI infrastructure may matter as much as the actual Q2 numbers. [18]
Big catalyst #2: The Fed’s rate decision and macro backdrop
Oracle’s earnings land the same day the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets for its final decision of 2025.
According to Investopedia’s December 7 weekly preview, markets widely expect the Fed to cut rates again on Wednesday, likely bringing the federal funds rate down to roughly 3.5–3.75%, marking a third consecutive cut. [19]
That article specifically flags Oracle, Broadcom and Adobe as headline earnings names in a week dominated by AI and large‑cap tech, reinforcing that ORCL will be trading inside a macro+AI narrative rather than in isolation. [20]
For Oracle, the Fed story cuts both ways:
- Lower rates ease the burden of funding tens of billions in new data centers.
- But they also support rich valuations across long‑duration “AI winners,” making any macro or guidance disappointment potentially more painful.
Round‑up: New Oracle stock research published on December 7, 2025
Here’s what the December 7 research flow is saying about ORCL heading into Monday.
1. Seeking Alpha: “Selloff looks like an early Christmas gift”
A widely shared Seeking Alpha note argues that the recent plunge has created an attractive entry point: [21]
- Oracle’s massive RPO and AI pipeline could drive substantial free cash flow in the 2030s, even if
free cash flow remains depressed or negative through FY2028 due to huge capex. - The author frames ORCL as a high‑risk, high‑reward AI infrastructure play, but suggests that at current levels the market may be over‑discounting funding and execution risks.
Tone: Cautiously bullish, focused on long‑term cash flows rather than near‑term earnings.
2. GuruFocus: “Overvalued with balance‑sheet red flags”
A GuruFocus analysis, also dated December 7, reaches a more cautious conclusion: [22]
- Valuation:
- P/E ≈ 50x vs. a historical median around 23x.
- P/S ≈ 10.6x vs. a historical median around 5.2x.
- P/B ≈ 25.6x vs. ~11x historically.
- Financial strength:
- Debt‑to‑equity around 4.4x.
- Current ratio 0.62, signalling relatively thin liquidity.
- Altman Z‑Score ~2.84, in the “grey zone” where financial stress risk must be monitored.
- Insiders: Nine insider sales and no insider buys in the past three months, totalling about 204,000 shares sold.
GuruFocus sums up ORCL as a quality but richly priced business with above‑average financial risk, emphasising that the valuation already bakes in a lot of AI optimism.
3. FXLeaders: “Oracle’s AI bubble bursts”
In a short FXLeaders piece titled “Oracle’s AI Bubble Bursts: Peak Glory at $345, Now a $217 Hangover”, the author highlights: [23]
- ORCL ended the week at $217.58, up 1.52% on Friday but still 37% below its 52‑week high.
- A 36% single‑day surge in September 2025 (Oracle’s best day since 1992) when the company revealed huge AI contracts, including a $300B, five‑year OpenAI deal, and a backlog of $455B in RPO. [24]
- The recent pullback reflects growing investor scepticism about lofty AI valuations, even as Oracle’s fundamentals—such as 52% cloud infrastructure growth and large AI orders—remain strong.
FXLeaders notes an average analyst target around $253 with a downside scenario closer to the low $210s, framing current levels as a test of whether investors view this as a healthy reset or the unwinding of AI excess. [25]
4. Guru & blog round‑ups: Options, sentiment and AI hype
The OpenTools AI‑focused write‑up on December 7 emphasises: [26]
- Oracle’s rebound to ~$217.58 is tied to “AI momentum” and expectations that big deals with OpenAI and Meta will underpin long‑term growth.
- It highlights optimistic 12‑month price targets ranging from roughly $350 to over $460 from some aggressive analysts and blogs, implying substantial upside if Oracle executes on its AI ambitions.
Meanwhile, All Star Charts’ “Weekly Beat” puts Oracle “at the top of our radar” for the week ahead, noting: [27]
- Consensus Q2 estimates of about $16.19B in revenue and $1.64 in EPS (aligned with TipRanks).
- Last quarter’s nearly 36% earnings‑day spike followed by an almost 50% slide in subsequent weeks.
- Six consecutive quarters of negative post‑earnings drift, suggesting that even decent reports have been sold rather than bought.
Their conclusion: expect a big move after Wednesday’s report, but don’t assume it will be to the upside.
Debt, AI capex and credit‑market worries
If there’s one theme uniting December 7 coverage, it’s Oracle’s balance sheet.
Morgan Stanley’s CDS warning
A detailed CoinCentral article summarises a Morgan Stanley credit note that has been circulating in markets: [28]
- Oracle’s 5‑year credit default swaps (CDS) recently climbed to about 1.25 percentage points, the highest in roughly three years.
- Morgan Stanley warns CDS could approach 2 percentage points in 2026—levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis—if Oracle does not provide clearer funding plans.
- Oracle:
- Raised $18 billion in bonds in September.
- Is associated with roughly $56 billion in data‑center construction loans (directly and via tenants like Vantage Data Centers).
The note frames Oracle as a test case for whether the bond market will continue to cheer AI infrastructure spending, or start punishing perceived overreach.
Reuters: bond market jitters
Reuters previously reported a sell‑off in Oracle bonds as investors grew concerned that massive AI data‑center spending might not generate enough cash quickly enough to justify the leverage, especially if technology cycles shorten. [29]
The key fear: if data‑center hardware becomes obsolete in 3–4 years, Oracle has to “make a hell of a lot of money” in that window to pay off the associated debt.
Valuation vs risk
Combine those credit concerns with the rich equity valuation flagged by GuruFocus and TipRanks—P/E around 50x, P/S ~8–10x, and RPO under scrutiny for its concentration in a few huge AI customers—and you get the core bear case heading into Monday and Wednesday. [30]
Institutional buying vs insider selling
Big funds are still loading up
Two MarketBeat filings stories published December 7 show notable institutional support: [31]
- CalPERS (California Public Employees’ Retirement System):
- Increased its Oracle stake by 9.7% in Q2, adding ~244,947 shares.
- Now holds 2,767,791 shares, about 0.10% of Oracle, valued near $605 million.
- Dnca Finance:
- Boosted its position by 62.9% to 117,217 shares, worth about $25.6 million, now roughly 2% of its portfolio and its 13th‑largest holding.
- Other big names:
- Norges Bank initiated a position worth roughly $4.3 billion.
- Vanguard now owns ~164.3 million shares, adding over 3.3 million in the last quarter.
- Invesco lifted its holdings by 42.1%.
In total, about 42–43% of Oracle’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds. [32]
Insiders are net sellers
Against that backdrop, both GuruFocus and MarketBeat highlight that insiders have sold roughly 204,000 shares (~$60 million) over the past 90 days, with no offsetting insider purchases: [33]
- Recent sales include:
- EVP Stuart Levey.
- OCI CEO Clayton Magouyrk, among others.
Institutional buying + insider selling is typical in late‑cycle momentum stories—but for a highly leveraged AI build‑out, many investors will interpret insider behaviour cautiously.
Where Wall Street stands on Oracle stock now
Consensus rating and price targets
MarketBeat’s forecast page (updated through December 7) and Sunday’s articles paint a broadly similar picture: [34]
- Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy.”
- Analyst breakdown (MarketBeat):
- 4 Strong Buy
- 27 Buy
- 11 Hold
- 2 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target (MarketBeat): about $322.73, implying roughly 48% upside from Friday’s close.
- Average 12‑month target (TipRanks sample): around $350.27, implying 60%+ upside from current levels.
Recent actions include:
- Royal Bank of Canada: Sector Perform, target $310.
- TD Cowen: Buy, target $375.
- Citigroup: cut target from $415 → $375, keeps Buy but flags concerns about capex and debt.
- Wells Fargo: initiated at Overweight with a $280 target.
- Barclays, Jefferies, Piper Sandler, UBS, Evercore, Baird and others pushed targets into the $350–400 zone in October. [35]
Several opinion pieces (including in Forbes and elsewhere) argue that Oracle stock could rally 30% or more if AI bookings translate smoothly into revenue and cash flow, while more sceptical voices see the current drawdown as only partially pricing in AI and credit risk. [36]
What to watch at Monday’s open
Going into the December 8, 2025 cash session, here are the practical things traders and investors will likely be watching in ORCL:
1. Price action around the $200–$220 zone
Technical and trading notes published over the last week highlight: [37]
- ORCL’s bounce off a support band roughly in the high‑$180s to high‑$190s, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in.
- The current $215–220 area as a short‑term “battleground” before resistance in the mid‑$200s.
If Oracle can hold above $210–215 into Wednesday, it suggests dip buyers are regaining control. A sharp break back below $200 would signal that AI and credit fears are still in charge.
2. Pre‑earnings volatility and options flow
MarketBeat and TipRanks both highlight increased attention from options traders, with dedicated education pieces on “Why options traders are betting big on Oracle stock.” [38]
Ahead of Monday’s open, traders will be sensitive to:
- Implied volatility in ORCL options vs. other megacap AI plays.
- Whether options markets are pricing in a larger‑than‑usual earnings move, consistent with All Star Charts’ view that ORCL tends to move sharply around reports. [39]
3. Any new headlines on:
- Additional AI or cloud deals (especially from OpenAI, Meta, xAI or new hyperscaler partnerships). [40]
- Debt issuance or data‑center financing (new bond deals, structured loans, or changes to existing facilities). [41]
- Signals from the Fed or credit markets that could either ease or amplify concerns over Oracle’s leverage and AI spending.
4. For longer‑term investors
The key questions raised across December 7 research pieces boil down to:
- Can Oracle turn its half‑trillion‑dollar RPO into durable, high‑margin cash flows before its AI hardware becomes obsolete? [42]
- Is the current drawdown enough to compensate for:
- High valuation,
- Elevated credit and refinancing risk, and
- Execution risk on its AI mega‑contracts? [43]
- Or does the combination of massive AI demand, deep enterprise roots, and aggressive cloud expansion justify today’s multiples despite the near‑term pain? [44]
Bottom line before the bell on December 8, 2025
- Oracle enters Monday’s session as a high‑beta, AI‑heavy megacap sitting at the crossroads of:
- A Fed rate‑cut decision,
- A high‑stakes earnings report on December 10, and
- Intensifying debate about how much leverage is too much for an AI infrastructure leader. [45]
- Fresh December 7 commentary is split:
For traders, that means volatility; for long‑term holders, it’s a week where management’s words on funding, capex and OpenAI‑linked contracts may matter as much as any single quarter’s EPS.
Important: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consider your own financial situation and, if needed, consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.fxleaders.com, 2. www.fxleaders.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. investor.oracle.com, 5. investor.oracle.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.fxleaders.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. investor.oracle.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. investor.oracle.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.investors.com, 17. www.ft.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. seekingalpha.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.fxleaders.com, 24. investor.oracle.com, 25. www.fxleaders.com, 26. opentools.ai, 27. www.allstarcharts.com, 28. coincentral.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.gurufocus.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.gurufocus.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.forbes.com, 37. www.fxleaders.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.allstarcharts.com, 40. www.investors.com, 41. coincentral.com, 42. investor.oracle.com, 43. www.gurufocus.com, 44. cloudwars.com, 45. www.investopedia.com, 46. seekingalpha.com, 47. www.gurufocus.com
