NEW YORK — As of 12:46 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) is trading during regular U.S. market hours, with investors navigating a post-holiday session where liquidity can be thinner and headline sensitivity higher than usual.
Oracle stock price today: ORCL steadies while the broader market is roughly flat
Oracle shares are changing hands at about $199, up modestly versus the prior close and moving within an intraday range of roughly $196 to $200 (with midday volume in the millions of shares).
The broader tape is close to flat in midday trading—an important backdrop because Oracle’s recent moves have often been driven less by “risk-on/risk-off” market swings and more by company-specific questions about AI infrastructure spending, financing, and execution.
Why Oracle stock remains headline-driven: AI infrastructure spending meets cash-flow reality
Oracle’s stock has become a real-time referendum on whether massive AI data center commitments will translate into durable, high-margin growth—or whether the bill (capital expenditures, debt, and lease obligations) arrives faster than the profits.
That tension sharpened after Oracle’s fiscal 2026 second-quarter report earlier this month, when the company posted strong cloud growth and a huge backlog, but also delivered guidance that lagged expectations and signaled materially higher spending needs. [1]
In Reuters’ coverage of the results, Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global’s Visible Alpha, summed up the investor dilemma: the speed of the capex ramp and uncertainty around funding have increased market unease. [2]
What Oracle just reported: growth, backlog, and a one-time profit boost
From Oracle’s earnings release for the quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025 (fiscal Q2 2026), investors have been focused on several key datapoints:
- Total revenue: about $16.1 billion, up 14% year over year
- Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS): about $8.0 billion, up 34%
- OCI (IaaS) revenue: about $4.1 billion, up 68%
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO):$523 billion (a massive backlog measure)
- Dividend: quarterly cash dividend of $0.50/share, with a record date of Jan. 9, 2026 and payment date of Jan. 23, 2026 [3]
Oracle also highlighted that earnings were helped by a $2.7 billion pretax gain tied to the sale of its interest in Ampere, which matters because a portion of the quarter’s earnings strength is not expected to repeat at the same magnitude. [4]
Guidance and capex: the core reason ORCL sold off after earnings
While Oracle’s cloud growth and backlog were notable, the stock’s post-earnings pressure centered on two issues:
1) Guidance that missed what the market was priced for
Reuters reported Oracle’s fiscal Q3 (current quarter) adjusted EPS outlook came in below analyst expectations tracked by LSEG, alongside revenue growth guidance that also trailed consensus expectations. [5]
2) A major step-up in spending
Oracle executives said fiscal 2026 capex is expected to be $15 billion higher than the $35 billion figure previously discussed—implying around $50 billion in capex for the fiscal year ending May 2026. [6]
That spending is central to Oracle’s pitch: build out capacity, win AI workloads, and convert backlog into revenue. But it also raises a near-term investor question: How much cash (and leverage) does Oracle need to bridge the gap between building capacity and harvesting profits? [7]
OpenAI and “Stargate”: opportunity—and concentration risk
Oracle’s AI optimism is closely tied to its relationship with OpenAI.
A Wall Street Journal report earlier this year said OpenAI signed a $300 billion deal for Oracle computing power over multiple years, starting in 2027—one of the biggest cloud commitments on record. [8]
But concentration risk is part of the bear case. Reuters has repeatedly noted investor concerns that Oracle’s AI buildout is increasingly “tethered” to OpenAI, especially as the market debates OpenAI’s longer-term financing needs for ambitious infrastructure plans. [9]
Adding complexity, OpenAI is also expanding its infrastructure relationships beyond a single vendor: the Associated Press reported last month that OpenAI and Amazon Web Services entered into a large multi-year cloud deal, underscoring how competitive and fast-moving the AI compute market has become. [10]
Data center timelines: Oracle denies delays, but the market is sensitive
One reason ORCL has remained volatile is that investors treat any hint of data-center timeline risk as material.
On Dec. 12, Reuters reported Oracle denied a media report suggesting some OpenAI-related data center completions could slip into 2028, stating that “all milestones remain on track” for contractual commitments. [11]
In the same Reuters report, Bob O’Donnell, chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research, said investor concerns are increasingly shifting toward “practical factors” such as construction delays and power availability—an indication that the AI trade is now scrutinizing execution details, not just demand. [12]
Michigan project headlines: funding structure and partner optics matter
Oracle’s buildout is not only about technology—it’s about financing structures, partners, and project delivery.
On Dec. 17, Reuters reported Oracle said talks for an equity deal to support a more than 1-gigawatt Michigan data center project remained on track, and that the deal does not include Blue Owl Capital, after reporting about stalled negotiations pressured the shares. The project is part of the broader “Stargate” AI infrastructure push, with construction slated to begin in early 2026. [13]
This is important for investors because it highlights a recurring theme: Oracle’s AI opportunity may be massive, but the market wants clarity on who funds what, on what terms, and how those terms affect Oracle’s cash flow and balance sheet. [14]
Credit and balance sheet: CDS spike showed investor nerves
Beyond equity investors, credit markets have also been watching Oracle closely. Reuters reported that the cost of insuring Oracle debt against default (via 5-year credit default swaps) rose sharply after the earnings report, reaching the highest level in at least five years (as cited by Reuters, using S&P Global Market Intelligence and LSEG data). [15]
That doesn’t mean the market is “calling default.” But it does signal that investors are putting a price on uncertainty around debt-funded capex and the timeline for AI investments to translate into stable free cash flow. [16]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: cuts happened, but the Street isn’t uniformly bearish
Even after the sharp post-earnings volatility, Wall Street is not speaking with one voice.
- Reuters reported that at least 13 brokerages cut their price targets after the earnings-driven selloff, though some analysts argued the spending reflects an unusually fast investment cycle to meet AI demand. [17]
- Bank of America analysts (quoted by Reuters) framed the drawdown as a reflection of the “abnormal speed” of investment needed to support demand. [18]
- A Nasdaq/Fintel summary on Dec. 20 said the average one-year price target it tracks was revised to $301.79, down from a prior estimate of $343.56 earlier in December, with a wide range of targets. [19]
- A MarketWatch analyst-estimates snapshot (as surfaced in search results) showed targets ranging roughly from $175 on the low end to $400 on the high end, with an average around $294 (data point dated mid-December). [20]
- A Zacks/Nasdaq commentary noted that the Zacks consensus for fiscal 2026 earnings has been revised upward recently (a reminder that some forecast models still see earnings momentum even with the capex overhang). [21]
The practical takeaway: consensus targets still sit well above today’s trading range—but target dispersion is wide, and near-term sentiment is heavily tied to the next few checkpoints on capex, financing, and data center execution. [22]
What investors should watch into the close and before the next session
Because the market is open right now (midday New York time), the most relevant “next session” prep is really about what could change sentiment between now and the next open—especially in a late-December tape that can amplify moves.
Here are the key watch-items investors are tracking:
- Any incremental data-center or financing updates
Oracle’s AI narrative is increasingly about project delivery and capital structure, not just bookings. Headlines around partners, leases, and build schedules can move the stock quickly. [23] - Credit-market temperature checks
Movements in credit spreads and CDS pricing don’t have to predict a crisis to matter for ORCL—because they influence how investors discount future cash flows when capex is surging. [24] - Follow-through from the broader “AI trade”
Reuters noted that Oracle’s earnings-driven turbulence recently weighed on other AI-linked names and sparked renewed debate about an “AI bubble” versus a normal investment cycle. In that environment, sector sentiment can quickly become a tailwind or headwind. [25] - Upcoming calendar items: dividend timing and the next earnings window
Oracle’s $0.50 dividend includes a Jan. 9, 2026 record date and Jan. 23, 2026 payment date, which can affect short-term positioning. [26]
For earnings, Oracle hasn’t posted an official next date in all calendars, but multiple trackers point to early-to-mid March 2026 for fiscal Q3 results (investors should confirm via Oracle IR when the company updates). [27] - Holiday-week liquidity
Post-holiday sessions can see exaggerated moves on relatively less volume—so investors often place extra emphasis on whether a move is broad-based (sector + market) or isolated (single-name + headline). [28]
Bottom line for Oracle stock watchers on Dec. 26
Oracle stock is trading like a company in the middle of a high-stakes transition: from “enterprise software powerhouse” to “AI infrastructure and cloud capacity builder.” The bull case points to rapid cloud growth and a massive backlog; the bear case questions the cash-flow path and financing burden of building out AI-scale infrastructure fast enough to meet commitments.
For now, ORCL’s near-term direction is likely to hinge on one thing above all: proof that the backlog converts into revenue and cash without destabilizing the balance sheet. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. investor.oracle.com, 4. investor.oracle.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.wsj.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. apnews.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. investor.oracle.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. www.reuters.com
