Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Today: Fresh Analyst Coverage, Big 2027 Profit Hopes and Policy Risk in Focus

Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE: OSCR) is back under the market’s spotlight on December 11, 2025, as Wall Street adds new coverage, doubles down on long‑term profit targets, and investors digest another bout of volatility in this high‑growth, high‑risk health‑insurtech name.

While legacy giants such as American International Group, Inc. (AIG) dominate traditional insurance lines, Oscar is trying to reinvent health coverage for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) era with a tech‑first platform, AI tools, and aggressive geographic expansion. That experiment is playing out in real time in the stock price.

Oscar Health stock today: volatile in the mid‑$15s

As of Thursday’s session, Oscar Health stock is trading around the mid‑$15s per share, roughly $15.8 intraday.

That follows a sharp drop in the latest completed trading day, when OSCR closed at $15.59, down about 8% from the prior session despite broader market gains. ^[1]

Key trading and valuation stats:

52‑week range: $11.20 – $23.80
Market cap: roughly $4.1 billion
Beta: about 1.9, underscoring above‑market volatility
1‑year price performance: roughly mid‑teens percentage gain despite recent drawdowns ^[2]

Options and quantitative data paint the same picture. GuruFocus recently flagged high implied volatility around 90%+, elevated daily price swings, and a beta above 2.7, classifying Oscar as a high‑volatility, high‑risk healthcare plan stock. ^[3]

In short: this is not a sleepy insurance name. It trades more like a growth tech stock that just happens to sell health plans.

New December 11 coverage: Stephens joins the analyst chorus

The headline development for December 11, 2025 is new coverage from Stephens & Co., which initiates Oscar Health with an “Equal‑Weight” (Hold) rating and a $17 price target. ^[4]

That target implies mid‑single‑digit upside from where the stock has been trading this week, and it lands squarely in the middle of Oscar’s increasingly wide analyst range.

The new note from Stephens drops into a crowded field of recent calls:

Piper Sandler upgraded OSCR from Neutral to Overweight, hiking its price target from $13 to $25 on November 26. ^[5]
Wells Fargo maintained an Underweight (Sell‑leaning) stance while cutting its target from $14 to $11. ^[6]
Barclays kept an Underweight rating but nudged its target from $11 to $13. ^[7]
UBS reaffirmed a Sell / Strong Sell view and raised its target slightly from $11 to $12. ^[8]
Goldman Sachs earlier initiated with Neutral and a $17 target, matching Stephens on price but not on timing. ^[9]

According to StockAnalysis, the seven analysts tracked there give Oscar an average rating of “Sell” with an average 12‑month price target of about $15.57 (range $11–$25). ^[10]

Public.com, looking at a very similar set of analysts, labels the consensus as “Hold”, with 14% rating OSCR a Buy, 43% a Hold, and the rest split between Sell and Strong Sell. ^[11]

Put together, the fresh Stephens initiation and the aggregation services tell the same story: Wall Street is split but tilting cautious. There is a loud bull camp, but the majority of analysts still see the stock as risky enough to underperform the broader market.

Piper Sandler’s 2027 profit math: $404 million adjusted EBITDA

The most aggressive mainstream bull case on Oscar right now is being articulated by Piper Sandler, whose upgrade to Overweight with a $25 target is gaining renewed attention thanks to a December 11 write‑up by Insider Monkey. ^[12]

Key points from that analysis:

Piper’s team expects at least $404 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2027, which they describe as a minimum scenario. ^[13]
Their work focuses heavily on Oscar’s benefit design, pricing and broker strategy in Miami‑Dade County, the company’s largest market, concluding that the insurer can gain share and expand margins even if enhanced ACA subsidies (E‑APTCs) roll off after 2025. ^[14]
They highlight strong top‑line momentum: Q3 2025 revenue up ~23% year over year to about $3 billion and membership up roughly 28% to more than 2 million members over the first nine months of 2025. ^[15]

This is, in effect, the optimist’s roadmap: Oscar weathers a potentially nasty subsidy reset, leans on its pricing power and tech stack, and scales into meaningful profitability by the late 2020s.

Q3 2025 earnings: strong growth, rising claims, deeper losses

Underneath the rating drama sits the cold math of Q3 2025, reported on November 6.

From Oscar’s own filing and follow‑up coverage:

Total revenue: about $2.99 billion, up from $2.42 billion in Q3 2024 (≈23% growth). ^[16]
Medical Loss Ratio (MLR):88.5%, higher than 84.6% a year ago, reflecting sicker membership and a larger risk‑adjustment transfer accrual. ^[17]
SG&A ratio: improved to 17.5% from 19.0%, showing some operating leverage and cost discipline. ^[18]
Net loss attributable to Oscar:$137.5 million, or –$0.53 per share, versus a loss of $54.6 million (–$0.22) in Q3 2024. ^[19]
Adjusted EBITDA loss:$101.5 million, far worse than the $11.6 million loss a year earlier. ^[20]

Zacks data shows that revenue missed consensus by roughly 3%, while EPS modestly beat expectations (–$0.53 vs. –$0.55). Membership of about 2.11 million members came in above analyst estimates, and the reported MLR was slightly better than feared. ^[21]

That mix explains the market’s whiplash: Oscar is growing fast, but its members are expensive to cover, and expanding into sicker populations has pushed up the medical loss ratio faster than investors hoped.

Capital structure: converting notes and funding AI

Oscar is simultaneously reshaping its balance sheet and raising capital for technology.

From the Q3 release:

The company entered into an exchange agreement with Dragoneer covering $250 million of 7.25% convertible senior notes due 2031.
As of early November, about $187.5 million of those notes had already been exchanged into roughly 23.3 million Class A shares, reducing future interest expense but diluting existing shareholders. ^[22]

Social‑data platform Quiver Quant highlights a separate $410 million convertible notes offering, which is being framed as funding for AI‑driven initiatives across Oscar’s platform. ^[23]

Quiver also points to:

Heavy insider selling in recent months, including large share disposals by co‑founder Mario Schlosser and other executives.
A net reduction in holdings by several large institutions, even as some healthcare funds have added aggressively. ^[24]

Taken together, investors are being asked to accept near‑term dilution and volatility in exchange for the promise of an AI‑enabled, more profitable business model later in the decade.

Expansion and AI: Orlando, Dayton, Tampa – and an AI agent named Oswell

Oscar’s growth strategy still leans heavily on ACA marketplace expansion and a tech‑centric member experience.

Recent moves include:

Launch of Orlando‑area marketplace plans that feature $0 virtual and primary care, partnering with major systems AdventHealth and Orlando Health, starting January 1, 2026 across 11 Central Florida counties. ^[25]
Dayton, Ohio expansion, bringing tech‑enabled plans to more individuals, families and employers ahead of the 2026 open enrollment. ^[26]
Tampa, Florida rollout, widening Oscar’s Florida footprint with additional individual and small‑group offerings. ^[27]

The company says its “Oscar Experience” platform will be available in 20 states for the 2026 plan year, including new states such as Alabama and Mississippi. ^[28]

On the technology front, Oscar has:

Announced a suite of AI‑enhanced tools for 2026 open enrollment, aimed at simplifying plan selection and care navigation. ^[29]
Rolled out a health AI agent, “Oswell,” designed to guide members through care decisions and chronic condition management. ^[30]
Introduced targeted products such as “Hello Meow,” a menopause‑focused plan for women, pitched as an example of more tailored benefit design. ^[31]

This is where Oscar tries to differentiate itself from traditional carriers such as AIG or large diversified health plans: a consumer‑friendly front end, data‑driven underwriting, and a willingness to design niche products around specific life stages.

Wall Street forecasts: big revenue, slow march toward breakeven

Analyst models agree on one thing: Oscar is a growth story first, profit story later.

According to StockAnalysis’ consensus:

Revenue is projected to climb from $9.18 billion in 2024 to about $12.26 billion in 2025 (roughly 34% growth), then edge up to $12.66 billion in 2026. ^[32]
EPS is expected to fall to about –$1.30 in 2025 before improving to around –$0.08 in 2026, implying a near‑breakeven year if things go right. ^[33]

GuruFocus, which aggregates a broader set of 11 analysts, pegs the average one‑year price target at $14.90, implying slight downside from recent prices, but its proprietary “GF Value” model estimates fair value around $19.81, about 27% above where shares recently traded. ^[34]

Public.com, summarizing the same universe differently, lists a $15.57 average target and describes the consensus view as “Hold”. ^[35]

Zacks, meanwhile, assigns the stock a Rank #4 (Sell) and notes that shares have fallen roughly 22% over the past month, even as the S&P 500 posted modest gains. ^[36]

You can think of this as three overlapping narratives:

Fundamental bulls: Oscar’s revenue growth and eventual pricing power justify Piper Sandler’s $25 target and 2027 EBITDA optimism. ^[37]
Quantitative skeptics: High volatility, a negative net margin around –2%, and a low Piotroski F‑Score flag financial stress and execution risk, pushing ratings toward Sell. ^[38]
Model‑driven fence‑sitters: Average price targets cluster roughly where the stock trades now, suggesting the market believes Oscar is more or less fairly valued given current information. ^[39]

Policy risk: ACA subsidies still drive the Oscar story

No analysis of Oscar Health stock is complete without talking about the Affordable Care Act subsidy regime.

Bulls point out that enhanced premium tax credits (E‑APTCs) have turbocharged ACA enrollment and given Oscar a growing addressable market. Public.com’s “bull case” summary highlights a 29% year‑over‑year revenue increase in Q2 2025 and improving medical loss ratios, reflecting the company’s ability to price and manage risk in this environment. ^[40]

Bears counter that if enhanced subsidies expire at the end of 2025, ACA marketplace enrollment could fall by as much as 30%, or roughly 6.1 million members, compressing Oscar’s growth and raising operating risk. ^[41]

That policy overhang has been on vivid display:

A Barron’s report two weeks ago said Oscar Health stock jumped around 22%, along with Centene and Molina, after a leak that former President Donald Trump intended to propose a two‑year extension of ACA subsidies, easing fears of a 2026 cliff. ^[42]
Quiver Quant’s social‑media tracking shows that investor chatter frequently spikes around subsidy headlines, with many traders explicitly framing OSCR as a policy‑sensitive trade. ^[43]

In other words, Oscar is tethered to Washington as much as it is to Wall Street. Any change in subsidy structure, income caps, or eligibility rules can materially rewrite the company’s demand curve.

Technicals, sentiment and short interest

Oscar is also a favorite playground for technically minded traders:

Investor’s Business Daily previously flagged Oscar’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating moving into the 80s, noting a bullish technical setup and leadership within the Accident & Health insurance group. ^[44]
GuruFocus reports implied volatility near 92% and a put/call ratio well below its norm, indicating active options speculation and a tilt toward bullish call buying. ^[45]
Insider Monkey characterizes OSCR as one of the “high short‑interest stocks” that could be attractive to traders betting on short squeezes. ^[46]

Quiver Quant, tracking insider and institutional flows, notes zero insider purchases and multiple insider sales in the last six months, alongside mixed hedge‑fund positioning (some funds adding millions of shares, others exiting completely). ^[47]

For long‑term investors, this means the short‑term tape can look chaotic, driven as much by momentum and positioning as by fundamentals.

How Oscar fits into the broader insurance landscape

Traditional insurers like American International Group, Inc. (AIG) span property‑casualty, commercial lines, and life products worldwide. Oscar, by contrast, is still a niche U.S. health‑insurtech focused on ACA marketplaces, small‑group coverage, and select Medicare Advantage offerings.

Relative to the old guard:

Oscar’s price‑to‑sales ratio around 0.4 is low for a high‑growth name, reflecting investor skepticism about sustainability and policy risk. ^[48]
Its price‑to‑book ratio above 4 is much richer than many diversified insurers, implying investors are paying a premium for growth, tech, and optionality rather than for a mature, capital‑heavy balance sheet. ^[49]

The comparison is straightforward: AIG‑style insurers sell stability and diversified cash flows; Oscar sells growth, tech, and the possibility of a structurally higher‑margin digital health insurer — if it can execute.

Key risks to watch

For anyone tracking OSCR after today’s newsflow, the main risk levers are clear:

Policy and subsidy risk
The fate and design of ACA subsidies (especially E‑APTCs) will heavily influence enrollment, pricing power, and margins from 2026 onward. ^[50]
Medical Loss Ratio and morbidity trends
The jump in MLR to 88.5% and management’s comments about higher market morbidity show how quickly rising claims can swamp revenue growth. ^[51]
Execution on AI and product strategy
Tools like Oswell and specialized plans such as Hello Meow may differentiate the franchise — or they may fail to materially improve unit economics if not adopted widely. ^[52]
Balance‑sheet and dilution risk
Convertible note exchanges and new financings reduce interest costs but increase share count and complexity. ^[53]
Volatility and sentiment
High beta, high implied volatility, short interest, insider selling, and options speculation mean large swings both up and down are likely to persist. ^[54]

Bottom line: what today’s news means for Oscar Health stock

The December 11 wave of coverage doesn’t resolve the Oscar debate, but it sharpens the contours:

Stephens’ initiation at Equal‑Weight and $17 reinforces the idea that, at current prices, Oscar is somewhere near fair value on most conservative models. ^[55]
Piper Sandler’s $25 target and 2027 EBITDA outlook represent the upside scenario: that Oscar leverages its tech platform, pricing power and ACA footprint to become a sustainably profitable, mid‑teens‑margin insurer. ^[56]
Q3 results and consensus forecasts remind investors that this upside is still theoretical; the company remains loss‑making and heavily exposed to policy decisions that are not in management’s control. ^[57]

For now, Oscar Health stock remains a speculative, policy‑sensitive growth story. The market has given it enough credit to keep the shares well above their 52‑week lows — but not enough to erase the discount implied by most one‑year price targets.