Palantir stock is trading higher today after a bruising post‑earnings pullback last week, even as Wall Street remains sharply divided over the AI contractor’s sky‑high valuation.
What’s new today (Nov. 10)
- Michael Burry vs. Alex Karp: “Big Short” investor Michael Burry fired back on X after CEO Alex Karp called bearish bets on Palantir and Nvidia “batshit crazy” in a CNBC interview last week. Burry’s latest 13F showed puts on ~5 million PLTR shares (notional ~$912M) as of Sept. 30; his posts today suggest he may have since closed the position. The back‑and‑forth is underscoring the market’s split view on PLTR after its epic run. 1
- Price action: As of this writing, PLTR trades near $193.6, up ~8.8% intraday, after opening around $184.4 and swinging between $183.1–$193.7. Volumes are elevated.
Q3 by the numbers: acceleration across the board
Palantir’s Q3 revenue rose 63% year over year to $1.18B, with U.S. commercial revenue up 121% to $397M and U.S. government revenue up 52% to $486M—a mix shift the company says is being propelled by its AI Platform (AIP). Slides also highlight a Rule‑of‑40 score of 114% and U.S. commercial total contract value (TCV) of $1.3B, +342% y/y. 2
Guidance: Management raised FY2025 revenue guidance to $4.396–$4.400B and now targets Q4 revenue of $1.327–$1.331B with adjusted free cash flow of $1.9–$2.1B for the year. 3
Why the valuation debate is raging
- Reason to sell? A widely shared post‑earnings take notes Palantir’s “epic run‑up” has left it priced for perfection, warning that the AI trade’s high expectations make the stock vulnerable to sharp corrections. 4
- Forward P/E vs. peers: Reuters pegs PLTR’s forward P/E above 240, dwarfing Nvidia’s ~33, a gap that helps explain the whipsawing sentiment despite strong prints. 2
- Street split: Recent rundowns show Jefferies calling valuation “extreme” (PT $70), UBS and William Blair cautioning on free‑cash‑flow multiples, while Wedbush urges buying the dip (PT $230) and Bank of America goes Street‑high at $255. Translation: conviction on execution; consternation on price. 5
The long‑game case: will Palantir outlast AI exuberance?
The Economist argues Palantir’s success isn’t just riding a hype cycle: the AIP‑led playbook (short “bootcamps,” fast on‑ramps, and an “ontology” layer that makes data usable in real workflows) has reached a profitable scale—and could keep compounding even if AI enthusiasm cools. 6
The ultra‑bull view: “$1T in the making”?
In a weekend note, one Seeking Alpha contributor framed Q3 as another double‑beat and pointed to 121% U.S. commercial growth, TCV momentum, and operating leverage (Rule‑of‑40 > 100) as evidence Palantir could grow into a trillion‑dollar market cap within five to six years—while acknowledging today’s valuation is demanding. It’s an opinionated take, but it captures the fervor of the bull camp. 7
What to watch next
- Conversion of AIP pilots to scaled deployments: The slides show rising commercial customer counts (+49% y/y) and bigger deal sizes; investors will want to see those translate into durable revenue and FCF into 2026. 8
- Government pipeline: DoD/Army programs and enterprise‑wide agreements remain a bedrock—watch new task orders and renewals for evidence of longevity beyond the current AI cycle. (Context: recent coverage has emphasized Palantir’s “sweet spot” in federal AI spending.) 9
- Macro/positioning risk: After a year in which the stock more than doubled, momentum cuts both ways; valuation‑led pullbacks can be swift if growth or margins wobble. 2
Bottom line
- Today’s story is equal parts fundamentals and narrative: great numbers, higher guidance, and a CEO publicly defending the franchise—set against bubble worries and star‑power shorts questioning the price tag. 3
- For Google News readers, the takeaway is simple: Palantir is executing, but expect volatility as the market renegotiates how much it’s willing to pay for that execution in a crowded AI trade. 4
Key takeaways (TL;DR)
- PLTR up ~9% intraday as the Burry–Karp spat keeps the stock in headlines. 1
- Q3 revenue +63% to $1.18B; U.S. commercial +121%; Rule‑of‑40 114%; FY revenue guide raised to $4.396–$4.400B. 8
- Valuation is the wedge: forward P/E > 240 vs. NVDA ~33; analysts are split ($70 to $255 PTs). 2
- Strategic lens: The Economist argues Palantir’s model can outlast AI hype; bulls even float $1T potential over time, while bears worry about paying too much today. 6
Disclosure: This article is for news and analysis only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
Sources: Yahoo Finance analysis on valuation risk; The Economist on durable advantages; Seeking Alpha’s bull case; Palantir’s Q3 investor materials; Reuters on guidance and forward P/E; Business Insider on today’s Burry–Karp exchange. 4
