Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) closed slightly higher on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, as investors digested fresh defense wins, accelerating AI infrastructure ambitions, and a wall of mixed analyst views ahead of Wednesday’s session.
Below is a structured look at how PLTR traded after the bell, the new Navy “ShipOS” contract, the AI data‑center “Chain Reaction” project, the latest forecasts and valuations, and a checklist of what to watch before the market opens on December 10, 2025.
1. How Palantir Traded After the Bell on December 9, 2025
Palantir shares continue to hover near record territory, even after a year of extreme volatility.
- Regular session close (Dec 9, 2025):
Palantir ended Tuesday at about $181.85, up roughly 0.2% on the day. The stock traded between about $180.39 and $182.81 with volume just over 18 million shares. [1] - After-hours action:
In early after-hours trading, PLTR slipped only marginally, quoted around $181.7, essentially flat versus the close – suggesting no immediate panic or euphoria despite big headline news. [2] - Trend and technical backdrop:
- 1‑year low: about $63.40
- 1‑year high: around $207.52
- 50‑day moving average: ~$179.05
- 200‑day moving average: ~$162.16 [3]
- Short-term momentum:
Earlier in the day, Benzinga noted Palantir was up around 7% over the last five sessions, with shares “trading marginally higher… hovering around $182” and still roughly 6% below recent highs after a mid‑November dip. [4]
In other words, after the bell on December 9, Palantir sat in a relatively calm spot: expensive, well‑bid, and waiting for the next catalyst.
2. Fresh Defense Catalyst: US Navy’s “ShipOS” Submarine Push
The headline late in the day on December 9 was a new U.S. Navy initiative that could deepen Palantir’s already significant defense footprint.
According to Bloomberg Law, the US Navy is turning to Palantir as part of a multi‑year effort to speed up submarine production, leaning on Palantir’s analytics to better expose bottlenecks in the defense industrial supply chain. [5]
Key points from the Navy “ShipOS” story:
- The Navy will use Palantir Foundry and the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) in an initiative dubbed “ShipOS.”
- The goal is to accelerate work on Virginia‑class and Columbia‑class submarines, both plagued by cost overruns and schedule delays. [6]
- The contract value has not been disclosed, but the strategic message is clear: the Navy is betting Palantir’s software can untangle complex industrial networks.
This deal:
- Reinforces Palantir’s core government franchise, especially in high‑priority defense programs.
- Supports the company’s positioning as a “mission‑critical operating system” for national security supply chains, not just battlefield intelligence.
- Could act as a proof-of-concept that Palantir’s government‑grade supply‑chain analytics can be reused in commercial heavy industry.
For the December 10 open, traders will be watching for:
- Any follow‑up commentary from the Pentagon or Palantir that might hint at contract scale or multi‑year value.
- Whether defense and shipbuilding names move in sympathy, signaling broader investor conviction in a submarine‑supply‑chain turnaround.
3. The Other Big Theme: “Chain Reaction” and the AI Data Center Build‑Out
Another major driver behind Palantir’s recent rally is its move into the plumbing of the AI boom: data‑center power, construction, and logistics.
On December 4, Reuters reported that Palantir, Nvidia, and utility CenterPoint Energy are building a new platform called “Chain Reaction” aimed at accelerating construction of AI data centers, which can consume as much electricity as a small city. [7]
Highlights from that initiative:
- Chain Reaction uses AI to coordinate permitting, supply chain, and construction, ingesting messy data (including emails) to detect delays and suggest fixes. [8]
- It builds on prior Palantir–Nvidia collaborations but is more ambitious, tying together chipmakers (like TSMC), utilities (CenterPoint), and data‑center developers into one shared operational picture. [9]
Benzinga notes that Chain Reaction has become the primary catalyst for PLTR’s latest leg higher, framing Palantir as a key coordinator of AI infrastructure logistics, not just software for dashboards. [10]
For investors, this matters because:
- It positions Palantir as a “picks-and-shovels” AI infrastructure play – not just another application-layer vendor.
- It potentially opens up a new multi‑billion‑dollar market segment in energy and data‑center planning.
Heading into December 10, markets will be listening for any new partners, pilot wins or revenue guidance tied to Chain Reaction. Even hints of early monetization could justify Palantir’s steep valuation in the eyes of bullish analysts.
4. Under the Hood: Q3 2025 Numbers Are Still Driving the Narrative
Much of the current enthusiasm – and the skepticism – traces back to Palantir’s blowout Q3 2025 earnings, released in early November.
From multiple sources (MarketBeat, TipRanks, 24/7 Wall St):
- Revenue: about $1.18 billion, up ~63% year-over-year, comfortably ahead of the roughly $1.09 billion consensus. [11]
- EPS: around $0.21 per share, beating estimates of $0.17, and more than double the $0.10 posted a year earlier. [12]
- U.S. commercial business:
- Margins and cash flow:
- Net margin is reported in the high‑20s on a GAAP basis (around 28%) with some analyses highlighting profitability above 40% depending on adjustments. [15]
- TipRanks cites trailing‑12‑month revenue of $3.9 billion and $1.8 billion in free cash flow, a free‑cash‑flow margin near 47%. [16]
- Palantir’s “Rule of 40” score – growth plus margin – sits around 114, an outlier even among elite software names. [17]
24/7 Wall St’s December 9 piece, “Is Palantir a Buy After Dropping 20%?”, underscores that U.S. commercial growth and surging profit margins are the big fundamental hooks, even as it warns that Palantir trades at an eye‑watering price/earnings ratio north of 400 and a triple‑digit price/sales multiple. [18]
Net result: fundamentals are exceptional, but priced for perfection.
5. What Wall Street and AI Models Now Expect from PLTR
5.1 Analyst ratings and price targets
Different data providers show slightly different figures, but the message is consistent: strong business, divided Street.
- MarketBeat consensus:
- Overall rating: “Hold”
- Distribution: roughly 4 Buy, 18 Hold, 2 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target: about $172.28, implying ~5% downside from the latest price around $181–182. [19]
- TipRanks & 24/7 Wall St synthesis:
- Other target snapshots:
Recent rating actions highlight just how polarizing Palantir has become:
- Goldman Sachs raised its target from $141 to $188 with a neutral stance.
- Mizuho lifted its target from $165 to $205, also with a neutral rating.
- Royal Bank of Canada nudged its target from $45 to $50 but stuck to “underperform.” [24]
That spread – from $50 at the low end to $255 at the high end – is a reminder that even professional analysts disagree sharply on what Palantir is worth.
5.2 Earnings growth outlook
Zacks‑sourced estimates, re‑reported via Nasdaq, point to ongoing rapid earnings expansion:
- Q4 2025 EPS estimate: around $0.23, implying ~64% year-over-year growth.
- Full-year 2025 EPS: projected to grow roughly 78% vs. 2024.
- 2026 EPS: expected to rise another ~43%. [25]
Separate coverage referencing TheStreet notes that consensus forecasts call for revenue to reach about $6.19 billion next year, roughly 41% growth versus 2025. [26]
5.3 Bulls, bears, and AI price targets
- Bullish camp:
- A Motley Fool / Nasdaq piece titled “Prediction: Palantir Will Soar in 2026” argues the company is entering a new phase of growth, driven by fresh government approvals and expanding commercial demand for its AI platforms. [27]
- A widely‑read TipRanks article highlights top investor Danny Vena’s view that Palantir is a “cash‑generating machine” with surging demand and thick margins, suggesting the stock may not be as expensive as headline multiples suggest. [28]
- Cautious and bearish camp:
- A Zacks / Nasdaq commentary asks whether the 151% one‑year surge means “the upside is already priced in,” even as it acknowledges strong earnings projections. [29]
- 24/7 Wall St’s December 9 article flags the “lofty” P/E and P/S ratios and warns that even modest deceleration in growth could trigger a sharp re‑rating. [30]
- AI price prediction (non‑Wall Street):
Finbold asked OpenAI’s ChatGPT to model scenarios for PLTR and reports an AI‑derived year‑end 2025 target near $225, based on probability‑weighted bullish, base, and bearish cases. The base case placed the stock in a $205–$235 range, assuming 40–60% revenue growth and sustained margins. [31] That’s not traditional research, but it underscores how AI‑driven speculation itself has become part of the Palantir narrative.
6. Ownership Flows, Insider Selling, and Controversy Risk
6.1 Big institutions are still piling in
A fresh December 9 MarketBeat report notes that Daiwa Securities Group boosted its Palantir stake by 6.6% in Q2, now holding more than 530,000 shares worth over $72 million. [32]
Other heavyweight holders include:
- Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund)
- Kingstone Capital Partners Texas
- Vanguard Group, which owns more than 205 million shares after adding over 7 million in the latest quarter
In total, hedge funds and institutions control roughly 45–46% of the float. [33]
MarketBeat and other sources also highlight that insiders have sold over 1 million shares (worth roughly $168 million) over the last 90 days, including CEO Alex Karp and other executives, though insider ownership remains sizable near 13%. [34]
Economic Times coverage stresses that high‑profile selling by Ark Invest and Palantir insiders has raised red flags for some investors – yet the article concludes the pattern currently looks more like profit‑taking in a high‑flying AI stock than a sign of operational trouble. [35]
6.2 Ethics, surveillance, and geopolitical risk
Not all recent coverage has focused on upside.
- East County Magazine ran a detailed December feature arguing that Palantir is “rewriting security and privacy” by helping build large, shared databases used across agencies including ICE and the military, and by providing AI tools that can be part of “kill chains” and highly automated targeting. [36]
- The piece references:
- Palantir’s role in U.S. Army programs like TITAN,
- Its involvement with immigration enforcement, and
- Concerns from human‑rights groups about lethal autonomous systems and mass surveillance. [37]
Separately, Business Insider recapped CEO Alex Karp’s comments at the DealBook Summit, where he defended Palantir as “highly ethical,” while acknowledging its software can support lawful surveillance and emphasizing the company’s “warrior culture” and anti‑“woke” posture. [38]
For investors, the takeaway is not just reputational:
- These issues can influence ESG screens,
- Affect which institutions can own the stock, and
- Shape long‑term regulatory and contract‑renewal risk.
7. What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 10, 2025
Going into Wednesday’s U.S. session, here’s what traders and long‑term investors will likely have their eyes on:
7.1 Follow‑through on the Navy “ShipOS” story
- Any press releases, interviews, or analyst notes that refine:
- The expected size or duration of the ShipOS contract
- Whether this is a pilot or part of a broader Navy‑wide rollout
- Reactions from defense‑sector analysts on how ShipOS might affect submarine production timelines – a key political and strategic issue. [39]
Positive commentary could support PLTR pre‑market, even if the immediate revenue impact isn’t yet clear.
7.2 Updates on AI infrastructure and “Chain Reaction” adoption
- New details on Chain Reaction customer pilots, especially from hyperscalers, major utilities, or large data‑center developers. [40]
- Any incremental Nvidia commentary linking its GPU supply chain more tightly to Palantir’s software stack.
Even small hints that Chain Reaction is converting into paying deployments could be used by bulls to defend rich multiples.
7.3 Macro backdrop: rates and risk appetite
24/7 Wall St’s live market coverage on December 9 emphasized that broader U.S. indices are trading against the backdrop of an upcoming Federal Reserve decision and shifting rate expectations. [41]
For a stock like Palantir that:
- Trades at very high earnings and sales multiples, and
- Is widely viewed as a long‑duration growth asset,
Higher yields or a risk‑off turn can hit the shares quickly – regardless of company‑specific news.
7.4 Technical levels and volatility
Going into the open:
- Near-term support: the 50‑day moving average (~$179) and psychological $180 level. [42]
- Upside reference: the recent all‑time high near $207, as well as the 52‑week range high. [43]
If pre‑market trading shows PLTR drifting below $179, short‑term traders may interpret that as a cooling of momentum after the recent rally. Conversely, strong bid interest above $182–$185 could signal positioning for another breakout attempt.
7.5 Flows and filings
- Further Ark Invest trade disclosures, if any, in PLTR
- New Form 4 insider trading filings, particularly any sizeable buying (which has been rare) versus continued selling
- Additional 13F updates from large institutions following the Daiwa and Norges Bank holdings data [44]
Because the bull / bear debate hinges so heavily on “who’s on the other side of the trade”, ownership data can move sentiment quickly.
8. Bottom Line: What the December 9 Close Tells Us About December 10
As of after the bell on December 9, 2025, Palantir sits at an interesting junction:
- Business momentum is outstanding:
- 60%+ revenue growth,
- Explosive U.S. commercial traction,
- High‑20s to 40%+ margins,
- Strong free‑cash‑flow generation. [45]
- Strategic story is deepening:
- The Navy’s ShipOS submarine push and the Chain Reaction AI data‑center project show Palantir entrenching itself in critical national‑security and AI‑infrastructure plumbing. [46]
- Valuation and risk remain extreme:
- P/E ratios in the hundreds,
- Price‑to‑sales well above most software peers,
- Ongoing insider selling and Ark trims,
- Heightened scrutiny of surveillance and military AI roles. [47]
For short‑term traders, Wednesday’s open will likely hinge on:
- How loudly the market cheers the Navy and infrastructure news, versus
- How worried it is about macro headwinds and extended valuations.
For long‑term investors, the December 9 close underscores the core question:
Can Palantir grow fast enough – and sustainably enough – to grow into its multiple, while navigating regulatory, ethical, and geopolitical minefields?
Nothing that happened after the bell definitively answers that. But the combination of the Navy’s ShipOS bet, the AI data‑center play, and ongoing institutional support ensures Palantir will be one of the most closely watched AI stocks when the market opens on December 10, 2025.
References
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