Dec. 26, 2025 — Palantir Technologies Inc. (ticker: PLTR) enters the post-Christmas trading session with investors still trying to digest one of the most explosive large-cap runs of 2025. Shares are hovering around $194 in extended-hours/pre-market action, essentially flat on the latest read, after a year defined by surging enthusiasm for enterprise AI (artificial intelligence) software and a steady drumbeat of government wins. [1]
At this level, Palantir is no longer a “quirky data company with a cult following.” It’s a roughly $463 billion mega-cap with a 52-week range of about $63 to $207, and it’s trading in a zone where every incremental contract win gets weighed against a valuation that even many bulls call “difficult.” [2]
What follows is a roundup of the current news, forecasts, and analyses as of Dec. 26, 2025—and what they collectively suggest about the next chapter for PLTR stock.
PLTR stock snapshot: price, size, and why $194 matters
Palantir shares are orbiting $194 going into today’s full session, with market data showing the stock has recently traded in the low-to-mid $190s. [3]
Two numbers set the tone for how traders talk about Palantir right now:
- Market cap: about $462.7B (i.e., the market is pricing Palantir like a platform company that could dominate a category, not a niche contractor). [4]
- Recent ceiling: the stock’s 52-week high near $207.52—a level that has become a psychological reference point after November’s peak. [5]
Technical analysts have also been fixated on ~$194 as a key battlefield: Investing.com described Palantir as facing resistance around that level, after rebounding sharply from a post-earnings slide. [6]
The core bull narrative: Palantir is turning AI hype into contracts (and revenue)
Palantir’s 2025 story is not just “AI vibes.” The company has put up real numbers that explain why institutions and retail traders keep coming back.
Earnings momentum: Q3 beat, Q4 guidance raised
In early November, Reuters reported Palantir forecast Q4 revenue of $1.327B–$1.331B, ahead of analyst expectations cited in the report, and raised its full-year revenue outlook to roughly $4.396B–$4.40B. [7]
Those forecasts came alongside a Q3 print that multiple outlets summarized similarly: EPS of $0.21 and revenue of about $1.18B. [8]
Even more important for the long-term thesis: Palantir’s U.S. commercial business has been accelerating. Investing.com highlighted U.S. commercial revenue up 121% year over year to $397M, and said Palantir posted record U.S. commercial total contract value in the quarter. [9]
This commercial traction is why PLTR can rally hard even when investors get cautious about “AI bubbles.” It’s not purely ad spend or consumer gadget cycles; it’s long-cycle enterprise and government software.
The biggest current catalyst: the U.S. Navy’s ShipOS initiative (up to $448 million)
One of the most market-moving contract headlines in December was the U.S. Navy’s ShipOS initiative, which directly ties Palantir’s platforms to the modernization of America’s shipbuilding industrial base.
- The U.S. Navy announced a $448 million strategic investment in Ship OS to accelerate adoption of AI and autonomy technologies, and explicitly said Ship OS will leverage Palantir’s software. [10]
- A Business Wire release framed it as a “groundbreaking partnership” deploying Palantir’s Foundry and AIP across the Maritime Industrial Base, with authorization “up to $448 million.” [11]
Beyond the headline number, the Navy release included operational anecdotes that explain why Wall Street cares: during pilot deployments, the Navy said submarine schedule planning at General Dynamics Electric Boat dropped from 160 manual hours to under 10 minutes, and Portsmouth Naval Shipyard cut material review times from weeks to under one hour. [12]
In other words: this isn’t just “Palantir got a contract.” It’s a high-profile attempt to prove AI can compress real industrial timelines—exactly the kind of proof point that can justify premium valuations.
Palantir’s second December storyline: “AI infrastructure” beyond defense
Palantir also pushed into the “picks-and-shovels” layer of the AI boom: power, grid capacity, supply chains, and data-center buildouts.
Chain Reaction: partners include Nvidia and CenterPoint Energy
Reuters reported that Palantir, Nvidia, and CenterPoint Energy partnered on a platform called “Chain Reaction” aimed at accelerating construction of AI data centers by coordinating supply chain, permitting, and construction complexity using AI. [13]
A Business Wire announcement (mirrored via FT’s press-release feed) described Chain Reaction as an “operating system for American AI infrastructure,” listing goals like stabilizing/expanding the power grid and accelerating new generation and compute capacity, and naming CenterPoint Energy and Nvidia as founding partners. [14]
For PLTR stock, this matters because it expands the total addressable market story: Palantir is pitching itself not only as “software for analysts,” but as a coordination layer for industrial-scale buildouts where delays are staggeringly expensive.
Europe and national security: DGSI renewal, plus growing scrutiny risks
On the demand side, Palantir continues to renew and expand relationships with national-security clients.
- Business Wire reported Palantir renewed a three-year contract with France’s domestic intelligence agency, the DGSI, extending a partnership “ongoing for nearly a decade,” including software plus integration/support services. [15]
But the risk side of that same theme has gotten louder in Europe.
- The Guardian reported UK MPs are questioning Palantir contracts after a Swiss investigation raised security concerns, including debate around data access risks given Palantir’s U.S. origin, and broader transparency/operational dependency issues. [16]
Investors generally like sticky government revenue—until geopolitics, procurement policy, or public scrutiny turns it into friction. This is one of the underappreciated “2026 variables” for Palantir: the company’s strength (high-stakes government deployments) is also where reputational and regulatory headline risk tends to cluster.
Retail investors remain a major force in PLTR—and that cuts both ways
Palantir has been a retail favorite for years, but 2025 took that dynamic to a new level.
- Reuters reported retail inflows into U.S. stocks were on track to hit record highs in 2025, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir among top retail picks, and suggested analysts expect some diversification in 2026. [17]
- Benzinga, in a Dec. 26 piece, described Palantir’s “rapidly growing base of retail investors” and cited the stock as up roughly 157% year to date. [18]
Retail participation can support elevated multiples for longer than traditional valuation models would predict. But it can also amplify drawdowns when sentiment shifts—especially for a stock with a high beta and a narrative-driven premium. [19]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: consensus “Hold,” but price targets are all over the map
If you want a single statistic that captures the PLTR debate heading into 2026, it’s this: analysts are not marching in lockstep.
MarketBeat’s aggregation (as of its latest update) shows:
- Consensus rating:Hold (with more Holds than Buys or Sells)
- Average 12-month price target: about $172.28
- High target:$255
- Low target:$18.50 [20]
That spread is not normal. It reflects two competing models of what Palantir “is”:
- A category-defining AI operating system with years of compounding ahead.
- A company whose fundamentals are strong but not strong enough to justify a mega-cap valuation today.
A concrete example of the split: Jefferies vs. the bulls
In an Investing.com report on Jefferies’ note from November, Jefferies raised its price target to $70 but kept an Underperform rating, explicitly flagging valuation concerns—while also acknowledging Palantir’s rapid growth and raised guidance. The same piece referenced other firms adjusting targets in very different directions (including a mention of Mizuho lifting its target substantially). [21]
The signal for readers: even analysts who respect the business may still argue the stock is priced for perfection.
Technical and derivatives “forecasting”: what traders are implying for near-term movement
Not all forecasts come from equity research desks. Some come from options pricing—essentially, what traders are paying for protection or upside exposure.
OptionCharts estimated that for PLTR options expiring Dec. 26, 2025, the market-implied expected move was about ±$4.48 (roughly 2.31%), suggesting a near-term range around $189–$198. [22]
Meanwhile, Investing.com’s technical analysis described:
- Resistance near ~$194
- Support around ~$150
- A broader bull run since late 2024, tempered by periodic “AI bubble fear” episodes [23]
Put together: the options market implies traders expect movement, but not chaos, while chart-focused commentary frames $194 as the level that decides whether the rebound becomes another push toward prior highs.
The bear case: valuation gravity and headline risk
Palantir’s skeptics don’t usually argue the company is weak. They argue the stock is dangerous at this price.
A Nasdaq.com commentary this month summarized the vulnerability angle bluntly: Palantir’s market cap around $450B and P/E above 400 could make it “extremely vulnerable” if investor appetite for risk cools, framing the stock as a “hybrid of a meme and a growth stock.” [24]
Even Reuters, while focusing on strong demand and raised guidance, noted how elevated valuation metrics look compared with other AI bellwethers. [25]
Then there’s policy and ethics-driven volatility. Palantir’s deepening work across immigration and enforcement contexts has generated intense public debate:
- The Washington Post reported on Palantir’s expanding role connected to immigration enforcement technology and the controversy around it, including internal and civil-liberties criticism. [26]
- A Fortune report (snippet viewable) described contract language suggesting a relationship aimed at rooting out certain fraud schemes in immigration services. [27]
For markets, this kind of controversy can matter in three ways: reputational risk, procurement scrutiny, and employee/talent pressure—none of which show up neatly in quarterly revenue lines until they do.
What to watch next: earnings timing, guidance durability, and whether contracts scale
Next earnings date: not confirmed, and calendars disagree
Palantir has not confirmed its next earnings date publicly in a way that all data providers align on. Some calendars estimate Feb. 2, 2026 (often marked as algorithmic/unconfirmed), while others list Feb. 17–18, 2026. [28]
That matters because Palantir is a stock where a single report can reset the narrative—either reigniting the “AI operating system” thesis or re-centering the valuation debate.
The 2026 question investors are really asking
The key issue isn’t whether Palantir can win contracts. The news flow says it can.
The question is whether Palantir can do all of the following at once—at the scale implied by a ~$460B valuation:
- Keep commercial growth elevated (not just “good,” but compounding-fast). [29]
- Convert marquee programs like ShipOS into repeatable playbooks across agencies and industries. [30]
- Expand into infrastructure coordination (Chain Reaction) without diluting focus or margins. [31]
- Navigate scrutiny around data governance, sovereignty, and public accountability—especially outside the U.S. [32]
Bottom line on Dec. 26, 2025: PLTR is priced like a future “operating system,” not a normal software vendor
As of today, Palantir stock sits in a classic “great company, hard stock” zone:
- The fundamental story is powered by accelerating commercial adoption and high-profile government deployments. [33]
- The news flow is strong: ShipOS (up to $448M), DGSI renewal, and the Chain Reaction initiative with Nvidia and CenterPoint. [34]
- The forecast landscape is fractured: consensus “Hold” with a wide price-target spread, reflecting how uncertain the valuation math becomes at this scale. [35]
For readers watching Palantir into 2026, the most honest framing is this: PLTR can still go up from here—but it will likely require continued “proof,” not just promises, that Palantir’s AI platforms create measurable, defensible productivity gains across multiple sectors.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.navy.mil, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.navy.mil, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. markets.ft.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.theguardian.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.benzinga.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. optioncharts.io, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.washingtonpost.com, 27. fortune.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.theguardian.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.businesswire.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com
