NEW YORK — Dec. 26, 2025, 3:10 p.m. ET.
Wall Street is doing that end‑of‑year thing where it technically trades, but with the vibe of a half-lit office. U.S. indexes have hovered near record territory in light post‑Christmas volume, with investors watching interest-rate expectations and positioning into the final trading days of 2025. [1]
In that backdrop, Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) is seeing a familiar cocktail of profit‑taking, headline‑driven swings, and valuation debate—even as the company continues to stack up defense-adjacent wins and AI‑infrastructure partnerships.
Palantir stock price right now
As of the latest available quote during today’s session, Palantir shares traded at $189.15, down $5.02 from the prior close (about ‑2.6%). The stock has ranged from an intraday high of $196.18 to a low of $189.04, after opening near $195, with volume around 17.9 million shares at the time of the snapshot.
That move is notable mainly because today’s tape is thin—the kind of market where a few big orders can make a stock look dramatic, even when the broader narrative hasn’t changed much. Reuters described the session as muted and light on catalysts. [2]
Why PLTR is wobbling on a quiet market day
1) Liquidity is low, and “Santa rally” psychology is high
The market is in the early stretch of the so‑called “Santa Claus rally” window (the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the next). Historically, it can be supportive for risk assets—but it’s not magic, and strategists generally warn against treating it as destiny. [3]
Low volume matters for Palantir because it’s become a high‑attention, high‑momentum AI name—the kind of stock that can swing harder than the indexes when liquidity thins.
2) Valuation remains the evergreen argument
Even bulls who love Palantir’s product momentum often concede the stock is priced for near‑perfection. Reuters has repeatedly highlighted how elevated the valuation has been relative to other big AI-linked names, and quoted professional investors warning that guidance deceleration (even slight) can matter a lot when expectations are already sky‑high. [4]
3) The stock has already had a monster year
Palantir’s 2025 run has been so strong that any “normal” pullback can look scary on a chart. Investor’s Business Daily noted the stock reached a record high of $207.52 in November and is up more than 150% year-to-date—a setup where late‑December trimming is common, particularly for funds managing year‑end exposures. [5]
The bull case: real contracts, real deployments, and the “AIP commercialization” story
Palantir’s narrative has shifted from “mysterious government data company” to something closer to “enterprise AI operating system with defense‑grade roots.” Three recent developments help explain why the stock keeps getting pulled back into the spotlight:
U.S. Navy + Palantir: ShipOS and a $448 million authorization
In early December, the U.S. Navy announced a major initiative—often referred to as ShipOS—built to modernize shipbuilding and supply-chain operations using Palantir software, with authorization up to $448 million tied to accelerating AI and autonomy adoption. [6]
For investors, the significance isn’t just the headline number. It’s that shipbuilding is a brutally complex, data‑heavy workflow, and Palantir’s pitch is basically: we thrive in messy reality where the data is everywhere and nowhere at once.
“Chain Reaction”: Nvidia, Palantir, and CenterPoint target AI data‑center bottlenecks
Earlier this month, Reuters reported Palantir partnered with Nvidia and CenterPoint Energy on an AI-driven platform called “Chain Reaction,” aiming to speed construction of AI data centers by coordinating supply chains, permitting, and buildout workflows—exactly the kind of cross‑industry coordination problem Palantir is built for. [7]
This matters because the AI boom is increasingly constrained by power and physical infrastructure, not just GPUs. If Palantir can become a key layer in “AI factory” buildouts, that expands the addressable market far beyond traditional analytics budgets.
Continued federal demand (and scrutiny)
Palantir remains deeply embedded in government modernization work—and it’s not always quiet. Fortune reported on contract language suggesting new work tied to immigration-services fraud detection (including marriage‑based schemes), underscoring how broad and politically sensitive some deployments can be. [8]
Government demand can be a tailwind—but it also invites oversight, which brings us to the risks.
The fundamentals Palantir just put on the table
Palantir’s most recent quarterly update (Q3 2025) put hard numbers behind the AI narrative:
- Revenue: $1.18 billion, up 63% year over year
- Adjusted EPS: $0.21 (IBD and Reuters both reported a beat versus consensus expectations)
- Guidance: Q4 revenue expected around $1.327–$1.331 billion
- Full‑year 2025 revenue guidance:$4.396–$4.400 billion [9]
The company has pointed repeatedly to rapid U.S. commercial expansion as a key driver; Palantir’s investor materials emphasized exceptionally strong U.S. commercial growth alongside continued government demand. [10]
Analyst forecasts: why price targets are all over the map
If you want a single, clean “Wall Street agrees” number for Palantir… you are going to have a bad time.
- MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot showed an average target price around $189.40 with an average recommendation of Hold (based on 27 ratings listed there). [11]
- MarketBeat showed a notably lower average target of $172.28 (23 analysts in its compilation), implying downside versus recent trading levels. [12]
- StockAnalysis similarly compiled a “Hold” consensus with an average target in the low‑$170s and an especially wide target range (very low to very high). [13]
Why the dispersion? Because Palantir isn’t being valued like a normal software company. It’s increasingly valued like a platform bet—and platform bets tend to have nonlinear outcomes. In plain English: if you believe AIP becomes foundational, today’s valuation can look reasonable in hindsight; if you think it’s “just another enterprise tool,” the multiple looks extreme.
Reuters has also emphasized that valuation concerns have been a recurring theme even when Palantir beats on fundamentals—because the market is asking for sustained hypergrowth and strong margins for a long time. [14]
Key risks investors are weighing heading into 2026
1) Political and regulatory blowback (especially outside the U.S.)
Palantir’s expansion into allied governments and sensitive public-sector systems can provoke opposition. The Guardian reported UK MPs questioning Palantir contracts after a Swiss investigation raised security concerns and broader debate around dependency and transparency for sensitive government tech. [15]
Even if that doesn’t change near‑term revenue, it can influence the pace and ease of international growth—particularly in Europe.
2) Market regime risk: if AI leadership rotates, PLTR won’t be immune
Broader strategists are increasingly talking about rotation risk after a year where AI‑linked names played an outsized role in gains. GMO, for example, warned the S&P 500 could face negative returns in 2026, pointing to concentration and potential underperformance in AI-related leaders. [16]
Palantir can have great company-specific news and still get hit if the market decides it wants less “AI momentum” exposure at year‑end or early 2026.
3) Government spending is both a moat and a macro variable
Defense and federal modernization budgets can be supportive, but they’re also vulnerable to politics, procurement timing, and headline risk. That’s not new—Palantir investors have lived through it for years—but it still matters when the stock is priced richly.
Is the stock market open right now—and what matters before the next session?
Yes. The NYSE and Nasdaq are open today (Dec. 26) for normal trading hours after the Christmas Day closure, following the previously scheduled early close on Christmas Eve. [17]
Since today is Friday, the next regular session is Monday, Dec. 29, 2025. Whether you’re trading short‑term or investing long‑term, here’s what tends to matter most going into the next open when the calendar is doing weird calendar things:
- Expect “thin tape” behavior to continue. Light liquidity can exaggerate moves—up or down—especially in high‑beta favorites. Reuters repeatedly noted the post‑holiday session dynamic and limited catalysts. [18]
- Watch rates and index tone. Even if Palantir has its own catalysts, PLTR still trades as part of the broader “AI/tech risk” complex. When indexes are hovering near highs, small macro shifts can drive outsized factor moves. [19]
- Year‑end positioning can trump fundamentals. Portfolio rebalancing, tax strategies, and window dressing can produce moves that don’t map neatly to “news.”
- Know the next obvious catalyst: earnings (date still not confirmed). Nasdaq’s earnings page lists Feb. 2, 2026 as an estimated report date for Palantir (algorithm-derived, not a company confirmation). [20]
Bottom line
Palantir heads into the final trading days of 2025 with a profile that’s both exciting and fragile: huge momentum, big-ticket government credibility, growing commercial AI traction—and a valuation that leaves little room for mistakes. The stock’s dip today fits the broader pattern of thin-volume, headline-sensitive trading as markets hover near highs. [21]
For investors, the core question into 2026 isn’t whether Palantir can ship impressive technology (it can). It’s whether Palantir can keep converting that tech into durable, scalable revenue growth at a pace that justifies being priced like a foundational AI platform—while navigating the political reality of where its software gets used. [22]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.navy.mil, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. fortune.com, 9. investors.palantir.com, 10. investors.palantir.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.theguardian.com, 16. www.businessinsider.com, 17. www.cbsnews.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. investors.palantir.com
