Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closed Thursday’s session essentially flat after a volatile trading day dominated by fresh worries about an “AI bubble” and ongoing enthusiasm around its new $448 million U.S. Navy contract. As of the post‑close print around $187–188 per share, Palantir is hovering just below its recent highs and remains one of 2025’s most explosive AI winners. [1]
Below is a deep dive into what happened after the bell on December 11, 2025, how Wall Street is framing Palantir’s outlook, and the key things to watch before the U.S. market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.
Key Takeaways for Friday’s Open (December 12, 2025)
- Price action: Palantir finished Thursday down only about 0.2%, near $187.5, after swinging between roughly $180 and $188 during the session. [2]
- Macro overhang: A sharp post‑earnings sell‑off in Oracle revived concerns about an AI spending bubble and briefly knocked Palantir more than 3% intraday before it recovered. [3]
- Fundamentals still on fire: Q3 2025 revenue surged ~63% year over year to about $1.18 billion, with EPS beating expectations and government contracts accelerating. [4]
- New Navy megadeal: A $448 million ShipOS contract with the U.S. Navy—potentially “bigger than Maven,” according to one analyst—has become a central bullish catalyst. [5]
- Valuation debate: Palantir trades at an eye‑watering P/E near 440–450 and a consensus “Hold” rating, with a Street median target around $185–188, even as some forecasters warn of downside toward $120–$100. [6]
- Options market: Options pricing into the December 12, 2025 expiration implies roughly a ±3% 1‑day move, or about ±$5–6 per share from current levels. [7]
1. How Palantir Traded on December 11, 2025
From early gap down to flat close
Coming into Thursday, Palantir had just logged a big 3.34% jump on December 10, closing at $187.91 after a string of gains and strong volume—partly driven by enthusiasm over the Navy contract and a fresh Federal Reserve rate cut. [8]
On December 11:
- Open: around $184.6–$184.8 per share. [9]
- Intraday range: roughly $180.2 (low) to $188.0 (high), a move of more than 4% peak‑to‑trough. [10]
- Close: about $187.5–$187.6, a ~0.2% dip versus Wednesday’s close. [11]
- After‑hours: trading remained very close to the closing quote, signaling no new company‑specific shock after the bell.
In other words, Palantir shook off a rough morning, clawed back losses, and finished the day essentially unchanged—even as the broader AI complex wobbled.
2. Why AI Stocks (Including Palantir) Came Under Pressure
Oracle’s warning shot at the AI trade
The broader context on Thursday was Oracle’s disappointing earnings and aggressive AI capital‑spending plans, which triggered a drop of around 12–15% in Oracle shares and raised new questions about whether parts of the AI boom are overextended. [12]
Market coverage noted that:
- Oracle’s results missed revenue expectations and highlighted tens of billions in planned AI data‑center capex, reinforcing concerns about an AI “arms race” funded by heavy borrowing. [13]
- AI‑tied names—including Nvidia, Palantir, and Broadcom—were all cited as trading down more than 3% intraday as investors reassessed frothy valuations. [14]
Despite this, the Dow hit a new record high, while the Nasdaq slipped, reflecting a rotation from high‑growth AI names into more traditional blue chips. [15]
For Palantir, the message heading into Friday’s open is clear:
Macro AI sentiment can pull the stock around as much as company‑specific news. Oracle’s stumbles showed how quickly Wall Street can shift from rewarding AI narratives to demanding hard evidence of durable profits.
3. Fundamentals: Palantir’s Growth Engine Is Still Roaring
If you zoom out from the day‑to‑day swings, Palantir’s recent performance remains exceptionally strong.
Q3 2025 by the numbers
Recent earnings coverage highlights that in Q3 2025 Palantir delivered: [16]
- Revenue: about $1.18 billion, up ~63% year over year and roughly 18% quarter over quarter.
- EPS:$0.21, beating the consensus estimate of $0.17.
- U.S. government revenue: up ~52% year over year, as Palantir deepened its role as a critical defense and intelligence contractor.
- Deal volume: around 204 deals of at least $1 million each in the quarter—a sign of both breadth and depth across customers.
Net margin has expanded into the high‑20% range and return on equity sits around 15–17%, solid for a software name that only recently turned the corner to consistent profitability. [17]
A CANSLIM‑style growth leader
A technical/fundamental screen using William O’Neil’s CANSLIM methodology recently flagged Palantir as a top‑tier growth candidate, pointing to: [18]
- EPS growth: about 110% year over year in the latest quarter.
- Three‑year EPS CAGR: roughly 43%.
- ROE: around 16.6%.
- Relative strength rating: in the mid‑90s, meaning it has outperformed about 95% of the market.
- Balance sheet: effectively no debt, which is rare for a mega‑cap high‑growth tech company.
From a pure growth‑and‑profitability standpoint, Palantir’s fundamentals look better than many prior “bubble” names investors worry about.
4. The New $448 Million Navy Contract: Why It Matters So Much
ShipOS and the nuclear submarine fleet
On December 10–11, multiple outlets detailed Palantir’s $448 million U.S. Navy contract to deploy its ShipOS AI platform across the nuclear submarine supply chain. [19]
Key points:
- The deal focuses on using AI and Palantir’s Foundry‑based tools to manage maintenance and logistics for Virginia‑class and Columbia‑class submarines—programs that have suffered repeated production and maintenance delays. [20]
- Pilot programs reportedly cut schedule‑planning time from ~160 hours to under 10 minutes, and some material review workflows from weeks to under an hour, illustrating the kind of efficiency gains the Pentagon wants. [21]
- William Blair analyst Louis DiPalma has suggested this contract could become Palantir’s biggest program, even surpassing the influential Project Maven, underscoring its strategic importance to the defense business. [22]
A Gotrade write‑up notes that the Navy contract sent PLTR shares up more than 2% in morning trade when the news broke, and that the stock is now up roughly 140%+ in 2025 alone. [23]
For Friday’s open, this contract remains a key bullish narrative driver:
- It reinforces Palantir’s “mission‑critical defense contractor” moat.
- It provides multi‑year revenue visibility in a high‑margin government program.
- It opens the door to expansion to other naval assets (like aircraft carriers and fighter jets) if performance metrics continue to impress. [24]
5. Wall Street’s Split Verdict: From Bearish Targets to Trillion‑Dollar Dreams
Analysts and forecasters are all over the map
Consensus Street view:
- A recent MarketBeat summary pegs Palantir’s analyst consensus at “Hold”, with 4 Buy, 18 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings.
- The average target price is about $172–173, modestly below where the stock closed on December 11. [25]
Valuation snapshot from MarketBeat and other data providers: [26]
- Market cap: roughly $448 billion.
- P/E ratio: around 447x trailing earnings.
- P/E/G: about 7.0, suggesting growth still doesn’t entirely justify the current multiple.
- 52‑week range:$63.40 (low) to $207.52 (high)—at tonight’s price, shares sit almost 200% above the lows and within about 10% of the highs.
Bearish long‑term forecast (24/7 Wall St):
A new 24/7 Wall St forecast published this week projects: [27]
- Wall Street median 12‑month target: about $187.87, implying very modest upside from current levels.
- Their internal forecast, however, calls for PLTR around $120 in 2025, roughly 34% downside from today, based on revenue projections and concerns that current valuation bakes in a lot of perfection.
- Their longer‑term model sees revenue rising to about $8.5 billion and EPS to ~$1.27 by 2030, with a 2030 price target of $192, only slightly above today’s price.
“Crash to $100?” scenario:
Another 24/7 Wall St column asks whether Palantir could crash to $100 in 2026, noting: [28]
- A trailing P/E above 400x and bubble‑like sentiment around AI.
- Comparisons to past tech bubbles.
But the same article points out:
- Q3 revenue growth of 63% and net income up more than 200% year over year.
- Over 200 $1M+ deals closed in a single quarter.
- A view that, given those fundamentals, a total collapse to $100 is “highly unlikely” and that betting against Palantir in 2026 could be dangerous.
High‑valuation caution from Motley Fool/Nasdaq:
A fresh Nasdaq‑hosted Motley Fool piece highlights that Palantir: [29]
- Has posted triple‑digit stock gains for three consecutive years (roughly 167% in 2023, 340% in 2024, and over 100% in 2025 so far).
- Saw revenue growth accelerate to 63% last quarter.
- Trades at nearly 70x analysts’ 2026 sales estimates, a massive premium even compared with other AI leaders.
The author argues that while Palantir has been the star of the AI operating‑system theme, cheaper AI plays like UiPath may outperform it in 2026 due to much lower valuations.
Ultra‑bullish camp:
On the other end of the spectrum, earlier 2025 commentary from Wedbush and other bulls has called Palantir a “trillion‑dollar AI powerhouse in the making,” citing its dominance in AI‑driven decision software for governments and large enterprises. [30]
Put simply: Wall Street is deeply divided, and that tension between sky‑high growth and sky‑high valuation is exactly what will drive volatility into 2026.
6. Technical Set‑Up and Options Signals Into December 12
Trend, support, and resistance
Technical research from ChartMill and others paints Palantir as a trend leader: [31]
- Trend: Both short‑ and long‑term trends are firmly positive, with PLTR trading in the upper band of its 52‑week range.
- Relative performance: The stock is outperforming over 90% of its software peers, earning a 9/10 technical rating in one widely followed system.
- Moving averages:
- 50‑day moving average near $179.
- 200‑day moving average around $163.
That leaves layered support below current prices:
- Near‑term: around the $180 area, where Thursday’s low and recent consolidation intersect. [32]
- Deeper pullback zone: the $170–175 area, not far above the rising 50‑day average.
The FXEmpire pre‑market note for Thursday framed Palantir’s early gap down as a likely buying opportunity, emphasizing strong underlying momentum and the tailwind of easier Fed policy, even while acknowledging near‑term softness. [33]
What options are pricing in for Friday
Short‑dated options expiring December 12, 2025 give clues about how big a move traders are braced for:
- One options data source pegs the expected 1‑day move around ±2.3–3.0%, roughly ±$5–6 per share from the current price near $187. [34]
- Implied volatility for that expiry is in the mid‑50s, elevated but not extreme for a high‑beta AI name like PLTR. [35]
In practical terms, the options market is not pricing in a crash or a massive breakout for Friday alone—just a normal‑for‑Palantir sized swing.
7. Institutional and Insider Flows: A Mixed but Important Signal
A new MarketBeat analysis of recent 13F filings and insider trades reveals a complex picture: [36]
- Frontier Capital Management cut its PLTR stake by about 65% in Q2, selling more than 660,000 shares and retaining around 360,000 shares worth about $49 million.
- At the same time, major institutions Norges Bank and Kingstone Capital initiated multi‑billion‑dollar positions, while Vanguard and State Street added shares.
- Overall, about 45–46% of Palantir’s float is now institutionally owned, and insiders still hold just over 9%.
- Insider activity in the last 90 days has been net selling, with over 1 million shares sold by executives and insiders, though this is not unusual after a huge multi‑year run in the stock.
Another recent analysis highlighted roughly $12.6 billion of insider selling across AI leaders (including Palantir) versus only about $5.4 billion in insider buying, fueling headlines that insiders may be “ringing the bell” near the top of the AI trade. [37]
For Friday’s open and beyond, this backdrop suggests:
- There is real conviction from big institutional buyers, but
- Management and early shareholders are clearly taking profits, which can cap upside in the short term.
8. What to Watch Before the Opening Bell on December 12, 2025
Here’s a concise checklist for PLTR watchers heading into Friday’s session:
1. U.S. equity futures and AI sentiment
- Watch S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, especially if Oracle, Nvidia, or other AI names move sharply overnight. AI sentiment remains fragile after Thursday’s “show‑me” reaction to Oracle’s earnings. [38]
- A rebound in AI leaders could support Palantir at the open; renewed selling could make its rich valuation a target again.
2. Follow‑through on the Navy contract narrative
- Any additional headlines about ShipOS, pilot results, or possible expansion to other Navy platforms would likely be taken positively.
- Conversely, political or regulatory pushback on defense AI or data‑privacy concerns could act as a headwind—Palantir has often been in the crosshairs of privacy advocates and some lawmakers.
3. Key price levels
Based on recent trading and technicals:
- Immediate support: around $180, Thursday’s low.
- Near‑term resistance: the $188–190 zone, where rallies have repeatedly stalled this week. [39]
- Psychological level:$200, which Palantir has approached but not yet firmly reclaimed; a break above could attract fresh momentum buying.
If futures point lower, watching whether PLTR holds above $180 will be crucial. If futures are positive, a push through $190 could signal another leg higher in the uptrend.
4. Short‑term volatility around options expiry
- With a roughly ±3% implied move into the December 12 options expiration, markets are positioned for a typical Palantir‑sized swing, not a shock event. [40]
- Expect extra intraday noise as weekly options expire—particularly around popular strikes near $180, $185, and $190.
5. Longer‑term lens: Growth vs. valuation
For investors thinking beyond Friday:
- Bull case: explosive earnings growth, expanding government and commercial adoption of Palantir’s AI Platform (AIP), massive Navy contract, no‑debt balance sheet, and structural tailwinds from AI spending across sectors. [41]
- Bear case: one of the richest valuations in the entire market, heavy insider selling, AI sentiment that can flip quickly, and several detailed forecasts calling for material downside over the next 12–24 months even as fundamentals remain strong. [42]
Neither side is obviously “wrong” yet—which is exactly why PLTR is likely to stay volatile.
9. Bottom Line: After‑Hours Calm, But the Tug‑of‑War Continues
After the bell on December 11, 2025, Palantir’s share price looks calm on the surface: the stock closed almost flat, and after‑hours quotes haven’t moved dramatically. Underneath that calm, though, Friday’s open will still be shaped by a powerful tug‑of‑war:
- Explosive growth, marquee defense wins, and strong technical momentum,
versus - Stretched valuation, AI‑bubble worries, and profit‑taking from insiders and cautious analysts.
For traders, that likely means another day where moves of 3% in either direction are entirely normal. For long‑term investors, the question isn’t whether Palantir wiggles a few dollars up or down tomorrow—it’s whether its current premium fully, partially, or over‑discounts the role its AI software could play in government and industry over the rest of the decade.
References
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