Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) ended Monday, December 22, 2025, little changed after a choppy session that kept the stock flirting with the $200 psychological level. In late after-hours trading, PLTR was around $193.98, just a few cents above the regular-session close of $193.95—a sign that investors are waiting for the next catalyst rather than reacting to a single headline tonight. [1]
With a holiday-shortened week and a heavy U.S. economic calendar set for Tuesday morning, here’s what to know after the bell today and before the market opens tomorrow (Dec. 23, 2025).
PLTR after the bell: where Palantir stock stands right now
Monday’s regular-session numbers (Dec. 22):
- Close: $193.95
- Day range: $192.43 – $198.88
- Open: $195.04
- Volume: ~36.24 million shares [2]
After-hours (late Monday):
- Last price shown: ~$193.98 [3]
The day’s trading told a clear story: buyers defended the low-$190s, but the stock couldn’t sustain a push toward $200 by the close. That stalemate matters because PLTR has been one of 2025’s biggest momentum names, and the stock’s next move often depends on whether it can reclaim (and hold) round-number levels like $200 in convincing fashion.
What changed today: the “why” behind Palantir stock’s tone on Dec. 22
1) Technical traders still see PLTR in a constructive setup
A widely circulated technical take Monday put Palantir “in the buy zone,” pointing to a cup-with-handle breakout and a buy point around 190.39. The same commentary highlighted PLTR’s strong 2025 run, even after pulling back from a recent high near $207.52. [4]
That context helps explain why the stock can be volatile even on “quiet” days: when a large portion of the shareholder base is momentum- and technical-driven, key levels (like ~190 support and ~200 resistance) can matter as much as fresh fundamental news.
2) Bull case headlines remain anchored in government + defense wins
Even though much of the biggest contract news hit earlier this month, it remains central to today’s coverage and investor narrative—especially the U.S. Navy ShipOS initiative, which authorizes up to $448 million to deploy Palantir software across the maritime industrial base. [5]
Several “today” analyses also frame 2025 as a banner year for Palantir, citing the Navy contract as a headline proof point for Palantir’s positioning in defense AI and operations software. [6]
3) A new Europe-focused risk headline is in the mix tonight
A major non-U.S. story published Monday: UK MPs are questioning Palantir-related government contracts after a Swiss investigation raised concerns about security and data access. Palantir has rejected the claim that U.S. intelligence could access sensitive customer data and says customers retain control through contractual, procedural, and technical safeguards. [7]
For PLTR investors, this matters less as an immediate revenue event and more as headline risk: heightened scrutiny can affect procurement politics, the pace of renewals, and the willingness of agencies to expand deployments—particularly in Europe, where “data sovereignty” issues can shape buying decisions.
Today’s forecast and analysis roundup: why opinions are still sharply split
If you only read one thing about Palantir stock tonight, it should be this: the debate is no longer about whether Palantir is relevant—it’s about what that relevance is worth at today’s valuation.
The bullish framing: “AI infrastructure” and expanding recurring revenue
A prominent pro-PLTR thesis making the rounds today argues Palantir is becoming “unavoidable” in AI infrastructure by 2026, emphasizing:
- AIP adoption as a driver of profitability and enterprise monetization,
- Rapid U.S. commercial revenue growth, and
- Durable government contracts supporting recurring revenue and visibility. [8]
A separate analysis published today also highlighted Palantir’s growth split in Q3 2025, citing government revenue growth of ~52% (to $486M) and commercial growth of ~121% (to $397M)—a combination that keeps both the defense and enterprise narratives alive simultaneously. [9]
The valuation reality check: price targets imply limited upside (or downside)
Despite the optimism, several mainstream data aggregators still show average price targets below the current stock price. One widely referenced snapshot today showed:
- Price target around ~$172 and a P/E ratio above ~460 (figures that underscore how much growth is already priced in). [10]
Another compilation listed a “Hold”-leaning consensus with a 12‑month target around ~$171.74 (roughly low-double-digit downside from ~$194). [11]
The bearish “2026 reset” view is getting louder
Two widely shared bearish takes published Monday argued that the stock’s valuation leaves little room for error:
- One forecast suggested a base-case downside scenario for 2026 and even floated a “most bearish” case that would cut the stock dramatically, tying the call to valuation math rather than near-term fundamentals. [12]
- Another investor-focused note argued “drastic changes” could be ahead, pointing to PLTR’s very high P/E and predicting a much lower year-end 2026 price—while also noting Wall Street’s more neutral stance in its consensus rating/target framing. [13]
Bottom line on forecasts: bulls see Palantir as a foundational AI platform with sticky contracts; bears see a stock priced for near-perfection. The market is effectively saying: show us the next leg of growth—again.
What to watch before the stock market opens tomorrow, Dec. 23, 2025
1) Macro catalysts Tuesday morning could move high-multiple names like PLTR
Tuesday is unusually loaded for a holiday week, with multiple delayed U.S. releases scheduled:
- 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA GDP release for Q3 2025 (Initial Estimate) and corporate profits [14]
- 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Oct/Nov estimates) [15]
- 8:30 a.m. ET (also expected): delayed durable goods data (commonly tracked for growth and capex trends) [16]
- Market expectations highlighted in coverage today suggest GDP could come in around 3.2% annualized (subject to revision), with attention on how growth and inflation dynamics affect rate expectations. [17]
Why this matters for Palantir stock: PLTR trades partly like a “future growth” asset. Surprises that move bond yields or change the rate-cut narrative can spill directly into AI/software multiples—especially when liquidity is thin.
2) Holiday market structure: liquidity risk is real this week
U.S. markets will be open Tuesday, but traders are already positioning for a shortened week:
- Early close Wednesday, Dec. 24, and
- Closed Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day) [18]
In practice, that often means wider spreads, faster moves, and more “gap risk” at the open—particularly in popular momentum names.
3) Options positioning: $200 is a magnet zone into late-week expiration
If you’re watching “pin” levels, the options tape suggests traders are heavily active around strikes just above current price into Dec. 26 expiration week. On the options chain, $200 calls showed very large volume and meaningful open interest; strikes like $197.50 and $195 also stood out. [19]
This doesn’t predict direction—but it can amplify price action around round numbers, especially if the stock drifts toward $200 with low liquidity.
4) Key price levels traders are watching heading into Tuesday
Based on today’s trading and widely discussed technical framing:
- Near-term support: low-$190s (today’s $192.43 low is a reference point), plus the ~$190.39 buy-point area cited in technical coverage [20]
- Near-term resistance: $198–$200 zone first; then the recent high area around $207.52 [21]
If PLTR breaks above $200 with conviction, momentum traders tend to show up quickly. If it loses the low-$190s, the conversation shifts back to valuation and “how much of the good news is already priced in.”
5) Headline watch: UK scrutiny and government-contract chatter
The UK political scrutiny story is the kind of narrative that can resurface quickly—especially if additional European officials weigh in, or if Palantir responds more formally. [22]
Separately, the defense-technology thread remains a constant driver of sentiment after major wins like ShipOS—even if the contract headlines themselves aren’t new tonight. [23]
The takeaway for Tuesday’s open
Palantir stock enters Tuesday, Dec. 23, in a familiar place for late 2025: strong long-term momentum, an active contract narrative, and an valuation debate that won’t go away. Today’s after-hours action is calm—but tomorrow morning’s macro data and headline flow could change that quickly.
For traders, the “tell” is whether PLTR can reclaim $200 or whether it slips back toward support in the low-$190s. For longer-term investors, the focus remains on the same question that dominates nearly every forecast: can fundamental growth keep outrunning the valuation already baked into the stock? [24]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. www.navy.mil, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.theguardian.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. 247wallst.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.bea.gov, 15. www.federalreserve.gov, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.nyse.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.theguardian.com, 23. www.navy.mil, 24. www.marketbeat.com
