Palantir Technologies’ stock closed slightly lower on Monday, capping off its worst month in two years even as analysts keep ratcheting up earnings forecasts and the company leans into some of the biggest artificial intelligence and defense contracts on the planet.
As of Monday’s close, Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) finished around $167.5 per share, down about 0.6% on the day, with after-hours trading showing only marginal additional weakness near $167. Trading volume, roughly 27 million shares, came in well below its recent frenzied average. [1]
The modest decline looks tame next to November’s damage: Palantir shares fell roughly 19–20% over the past month, their worst monthly drop since 2023, even after a blowout third quarter and a torrent of new AI and defense deals. [2]
Yet zoom out and the bigger story is still momentum. Despite the pullback, Palantir is up more than 120% in 2025 and over 150% in the past year, leaving it one of the defining winners of the post‑ChatGPT AI boom. [3]
The tension investors are wrestling with tonight, after the bell, is simple:
Can a company posting 60%-plus revenue growth and landing $10 billion defense contracts really still be a “bubble”? Or is the stock merely catching its breath after a huge run?
1. What Happened to Palantir Stock Today?
- Closing price (Dec. 1, 2025): about $167.5
- Daily move: roughly ‑0.6%
- Day’s range: about $163–$169
- After-hours: little changed, trading near the regular-session close [4]
The move comes on the heels of a brutal November:
- Palantir shed about 20% in November, its worst month since August 2023, as investors dumped richly valued AI names. [5]
- The sell-off followed new short positions by Michael Burry (of “The Big Short” fame) against both Palantir and Nvidia, a symbolic shot at what many see as stretched AI valuations. [6]
Despite the correction, Palantir remains a high‑beta rocket:
- Market cap: around $400+ billion
- Trailing P/E: near 390–400x earnings
- Trailing price-to-sales: roughly 100x revenue, given ~$3.9B in trailing sales. [7]
That combination—mega‑cap size plus early‑stage multiples—is why nearly every note published today mentions “valuation” in the first few paragraphs.
2. Fundamentals: Q3 Earnings Show Why the Bulls Won’t Let Go
The fundamentals that powered Palantir’s 2025 surge are not in doubt; if anything, they’re accelerating.
Q3 2025 by the numbers
Across today’s coverage, analysts and commentators keep returning to the company’s latest earnings print:
- Q3 2025 revenue: about $1.18 billion, up ~63% year over year, crushing estimates near $1.09 billion. [8]
- EPS:$0.21, versus $0.17 expected and $0.10 a year earlier. [9]
- U.S. commercial revenue: +121% YoY to roughly $306 million, driven by the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). [10]
- U.S. government revenue: +52% YoY to about $486 million. [11]
- Customer count: up ~45%, with commercial customers up nearly 50%. [12]
- Remaining deal value: about $8.6 billion, up ~90%. [13]
- Adjusted operating margin: roughly 51%; free cash flow around $540 million; net income nearly $476 million. [14]
Management raised guidance to:
- Full‑year 2025 revenue: around $4.4 billion, up roughly 45–54% versus 2024. [15]
- Q4 2025 revenue: about $1.33 billion, implying ~61–63% YoY growth. [16]
In other words: growth is not the problem.
Big-ticket government contracts
A major focus of today’s articles is Palantir’s expanding government footprint:
- A 10‑year, $10 billion U.S. Army contract to consolidate dozens of data and software deals under a single Palantir platform. [17]
- A £1.5 billion U.K. defense deal and a planned £750 million, five‑year agreement with the UK Ministry of Defence, cementing Britain as Palantir’s European defense hub. [18]
- A controversial immigration-tracking contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) worth roughly $30 million, aimed at building a lifecycle operating system for deportation processes. [19]
- Additional federal work under the current U.S. administration, including a large domestic data hub project, which some coverage frames as a national “database on every U.S. citizen”—something privacy advocates will clearly scrutinize. [20]
Government revenue still makes up more than half of Palantir’s business, with clients spanning the U.S. Department of Defense, intelligence agencies, the CDC, FBI, USDA, ICE and the UK Ministry of Defence. [21]
Commercial AI adoption goes mainstream
On the commercial side, Palantir’s AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) and Foundry systems increasingly show up in today’s commentary as the “operating system for the modern enterprise”:
- AIP bootcamps are pulling in new customers “hand over fist,” according to recent coverage from The Motley Fool. [22]
- Industries mentioned across today’s pieces include healthcare, finance, manufacturing, energy, insurance, retail, telecommunications and semiconductors, among others. [23]
- Space-industry partnerships with Voyager Space and Starlab are highlighted as niche but strategic: both plan to integrate Palantir’s AI into defense and commercial space operations over the coming years. [24]
Fundamentally, the business looks like a pure‑play AI and data-analytics growth machine with enviable margins and long-term contracts. The question is what price you pay for it.
3. Today’s Fresh Forecasts: Estimates Keep Rising
Several of the most important updates on Dec. 1 are about forecasts, not prices.
Zacks: Earnings revisions screaming higher
Zacks, in a widely circulated note this morning, points out that Palantir’s earnings estimates have been revised sharply upward in the past month: [25]
- Current quarter EPS: forecast $0.23, up 64% year over year; consensus EPS has risen ~28% in 30 days.
- Full‑year 2025 EPS:$0.73, +78% from last year, with estimates raised ~15% in a month.
- 2026 EPS:$1.04, up 43% from this year’s expected earnings; estimates are up ~21% in a month.
- Revenue: Street now sees $4.42B in 2025 and $6.23B in 2026, implying ~54% and 41% growth, respectively.
On the back of those revisions, Zacks assigns Palantir a Rank #2 (Buy), implying it may outperform the market in the near term, even as the stock gets an “F” value grade for being richly valued versus peers. [26]
Wedbush: Outperform with a $200 price target
Earlier this month, Wedbush’s Dan Ives raised his numbers again: [27]
- Q1 2026 EPS: lifted from $0.13 to $0.15
- Full‑year 2026 EPS: projected at $0.76
- Rating: Outperform
- Price target:$200 per share
Several other brokers have similarly pushed their targets into roughly the $198–$215 band, but the MarketBeat consensus still sits near $173–$174, with a “Hold” rating on average. [28]
TipRanks’ AI model: Neutral with moderate upside
TipRanks’ automated AI Stock Analysis tool—drawing on multiple machine models—gives Palantir a “Neutral” score of 69/100 and a model‑derived price target around $188, implying roughly 11–12% upside from current levels. [29]
TipRanks also summarizes the human analyst view:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Breakdown: 3 Buys, 11 Holds, 2 Sells
- Average target: about $187.9, with a range from $50 to $255. [30]
24/7 Wall St.: Long-horizon models are more cautious
24/7 Wall St. published two major Palantir pieces today:
- “This Is Palantir’s Price Prediction Heading Into 2026”
- Highlights the 117% year‑to‑date gain and >20% pullback from October highs near $208.
- Uses prediction-market data (Polymarket) suggesting traders expect Palantir to end 2025 roughly where it trades today—mid‑$160s to $170s.
- Notes that some scenario analysis points to $250–$300 per share by mid‑2026 if current high growth rates persist. [31]
- “Palantir Technologies Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030 for December 1”
- Aggregates Wall Street’s median 12‑month target of $187.87 (about 11–12% upside).
- Offers a house forecast that is more conservative:
- 2025 price target:$120 (about 29% downside vs. today).
- Gradual recovery to $192 by 2030, only ~14% above today’s price.
- Projects revenue climbing from ~$3.5B in 2025 to $8.5B in 2030, with EPS rising from $0.47 to $1.27 over that span. [32]
In other words, shorter-term analyst targets cluster around $170–$190, while one long-dated fundamental model expects Palantir’s business to grow rapidly but its valuation multiple to compress, leaving the stock roughly flat in real terms over several years.
4. Valuation: The “Flashing Warning Sign” Everyone Keeps Talking About
Today’s most widely shared Motley Fool article on Palantir is bluntly titled “1 Flashing Warning Sign Palantir Investors Can’t Afford to Miss.” The warning sign isn’t the business. It’s the valuation. [33]
Across sources, the same concerns show up:
- P/E ratio: near 394x trailing earnings, versus a sector average below 30x. [34]
- Price-to-sales: triple‑digit territory, even higher than other high‑flier software names like Snowflake or Datadog, according to 24/7 Wall St. [35]
- Zacks Value Score:F, indicating Palantir trades at a steep premium to peers on multiple metrics. [36]
- TipRanks and Finviz: note that around 80% of covering analysts rate the stock Hold or Sell, despite strong fundamentals and AI tailwinds. [37]
24/7 Wall St. went further in a separate article today, listing Palantir as one of three AI stocks to short if the current AI spending boom falters. Their bear case: [38]
- Palantir trades at “over 200x earnings” and an “atmospheric” price‑to‑sales multiple.
- Michael Burry’s short position is framed as a signal that insiders of the AI trade may be over their skis.
- If U.S. government spending tightens and corporate AI budgets get cut in a downturn, the stock could see dramatic multiple compression even if revenue keeps rising.
At the same time, CNBC, Barron’s and Zacks are still grouping Palantir among the iconic winners of the three‑year AI era, which helps explain why dip‑buyers keep showing up even as valuation‑focused investors head for the exits. [39]
5. Analyst and Institutional Positioning: Cautious Love
Street ratings: consensus “Hold”
If you average out all the voices, Palantir sits in a strange sweet spot:
- TipRanks consensus: Hold (3 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell), average PT near $188. [40]
- MarketBeat summary: 5 Buy, 16 Hold, 2 Sell; consensus target ~$173.5. [41]
- TradingView/GuruFocus compilation: 22 analysts with an average target around $185.8, high at $255, low at $50. [42]
The message: the Street generally likes the business and growth, but not the current price.
ARK Invest and other institutions
A Finviz‑hosted recap of an Insider Monkey piece highlighted that Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest held about $736 million of Palantir stock at the end of Q3, making it roughly 4.4% of ARK’s disclosed portfolio; the firm has trimmed the position slightly but remains one of Palantir’s most visible champions. [43]
At the same time:
- 24/7 Wall St. notes that institutional ownership sits around 55%, with some heavyweight investors like JPMorgan and T. Rowe Price cutting stakes in recent months. [44]
- MarketBeat data shows insiders sold roughly 1.5 million shares last quarter, worth over $230 million, even while they still own just over 9% of the company. [45]
That combination—smart-money trimming, insiders cashing out, retail still piling in—is exactly the setup that fuels both bubble narratives and true compounder stories in tech history. Which one this becomes depends largely on whether Palantir can keep delivering 40–60% growth without a major stumble.
6. The December 1 News Flow: Key Themes After the Bell
Here’s how today’s major headlines frame Palantir as we head into December:
- 24/7 Wall St. (two separate pieces):
- Zacks (two angles):
- One article highlights Palantir as a trending stock with rapidly improving earnings estimates and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). [48]
- Another uses the recent 19% slide as a hook to pitch tech ETFs as a less volatile way to play the AI theme, implicitly warning that single‑stock risk in names like PLTR is now very high. [49]
- Finviz / Insider Monkey:
- Focuses on analysts’ cautious stance (about 80% Hold/Sell) and Palantir’s big UK expansion, which aims to turn the country into a hub for European defense tech and positions Palantir as a key supplier of AI battlefield software for NATO-aligned militaries. [50]
- TipRanks:
- An AI‑driven note warns about valuation risks, even as it acknowledges Palantir’s 63% revenue growth, 121% surge in U.S. commercial sales and robust cash generation. [51]
- Motley Fool:
- One piece singles out Palantir’s “flashing warning sign”—again, largely its valuation and the potential for a deep correction if growth slows. [52]
- Other articles published in the last day frame Palantir as a top AI winner of the past three years while questioning whether it can keep delivering market‑crushing returns from today’s elevated base. [53]
- TradingView / GuruFocus:
- Recaps Palantir’s ~20% November plunge, linking it to AI bubble fears and Burry’s short, but still highlights solid Q3 numbers and an average target price in the mid‑$180s. [54]
Put together, December 1 coverage is almost perfectly split:
- Bullish on the business and AI positioning.
- Nervous—or outright bearish—on the stock price.
7. Bull vs. Bear After the Bell: What Matters Most Now
Bullish arguments reinforced today
From today’s news, the bull case for Palantir looks like this:
- Hypergrowth in core metrics: 60%+ revenue growth, triple-digit gains in U.S. commercial sales, and rapid customer-count expansion. [55]
- Deep government entrenchment: 10‑year Army contract, big UK Ministry of Defence deals, ICE and other federal contracts create high switching costs and multi‑year visibility. [56]
- High margins and rising profits: 50%+ adjusted operating margins, strong free cash flow and expanding net income mean Palantir is already profitable at scale, unlike many high‑growth peers. [57]
- Upward estimate revisions: Zacks, Wedbush and others are raising their EPS and revenue forecasts, not cutting them. [58]
- Structural AI tailwind: Research cited today expects the broader AI market to grow at 30–36% compound rates through the end of the decade, with Palantir providing broad, mission-critical platforms rather than niche tools. [59]
In that telling, Palantir is the default operating system for AI‑driven decision-making across defense and industry, deserving a premium multiple.
Bearish arguments sharpened today
The bear case, which got louder after November’s slide, centers on:
- Extreme valuation: P/E near 400, price‑to‑sales well over 20x forward (and much higher on trailing numbers), with Street models often assuming years of 30–40% growth just to make fair-value math work. [60]
- Crowded AI trade: Zacks’ ETF piece and 24/7’s short‑idea article both argue that AI darlings could see sharp drawdowns if investor enthusiasm cools—regardless of fundamentals. [61]
- Insider and institutional selling: Executives have sold hundreds of millions of dollars in stock, and some institutions have reduced stakes, suggesting at least some sophisticated holders see better risk‑reward elsewhere at these prices. [62]
- Political and policy risk: Contracts tied to immigration tracking and large population-level data platforms could become flashpoints in future administrations or court challenges, potentially affecting renewals and reputation. [63]
- Macro sensitivity: If government budget priorities or corporate AI spending slow, a stock priced for perfection could see a big valuation reset even if the underlying business remains healthy. [64]
After hours on Dec. 1, none of these arguments is “winning” outright. The stock is down from its highs but very far from broken.
8. What Today’s Close Suggests for Palantir Stock
Looking across all the Dec. 1, 2025 coverage, a few clear conclusions emerge:
- The growth story is intact, maybe even accelerating.
Q3 and guidance show Palantir growing faster than many mega‑cap AI peers, with both government and commercial segments firing. Analysts keep raising their numbers, not cutting them. [65] - Valuation is the core battleground.
Nearly every skeptical note today—Motley Fool, 24/7, Zacks’ ETF spin—boils down to one question: how much future perfection is already priced in? With P/E and P/S at nosebleed levels, even a slight deceleration could matter more than another big contract win. [66] - Consensus sees modest upside over the next year, but huge dispersion.
Average 12‑month targets in the $170–$190 range imply single‑digit to low‑teens upside, yet the range from $50 to $255 reflects vastly different assumptions about how sustainable 40–60% growth really is. [67] - The stock is increasingly a “show-me” story heading into 2026.
Bulls need Palantir to keep delivering huge revenue growth, rising margins and sticky contracts. Bears only need one of those pillars—government budgets, commercial AI enthusiasm, or margins—to wobble for the valuation argument to bite.
9. Final Thought (and a Quick Disclaimer)
After the bell on December 1, 2025, Palantir sits at the intersection of two truths:
- As a business, it looks like one of the clearest pure‑play winners of the AI and data‑driven defense era.
- As a stock, it is priced in a way that leaves very little room for disappointment.
For traders, that’s a recipe for sharp swings around each earnings report and contract headline. For long-term investors, it’s a classic dilemma: pay up for what might be a generational compounder, or wait for a better entry and risk missing the next leg of the AI wave.
This article is informational only and not financial advice. Anyone considering PLTR should weigh today’s mix of rapid growth, heavy government exposure, political and ethical risk, and very ambitious valuation against their own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification needs.
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