Palantir Stock Jumps on $448 Million U.S. Navy AI Deal: What PLTR Investors Should Know Before the December 11 Open

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) just delivered one of its most consequential contract wins of 2025 – and the market noticed.

After a volatile session on December 10, 2025, Palantir stock finished the regular day at $187.91, up about 3.3% on heavy volume near 58 million shares, after trading between roughly $182.75 and $190.39. In early after-hours trading, shares eased slightly to about $187.46, essentially flat relative to the close. ^[1]

That move came as investors digested:

• A U.S. Navy AI contract worth up to $448 million
• Fresh earnings and growth commentary
• New bullish and bearish forecasts on PLTR’s future
• Persistent concern about Palantir’s extreme valuation

Here’s a detailed rundown of what happened after the bell on December 10 – and what traders and long‑term investors should watch before the market opens on December 11, 2025.

Palantir Stock After the Bell on December 10, 2025

According to StockAnalysis, Palantir: ^[2]

• Closed: $187.91
• Change: +$6.07 (+3.34%) vs. yesterday’s $181.84 close
• Day’s range: ~$182.75 – $190.39
• Volume: ~57.9 million shares
• After hours (4:30 p.m. EST): $187.46 (‑0.24%)

In other words, the big news hit during and just after the regular session, propelled shares higher, and then the stock cooled slightly but held almost all of its gains in after‑hours trading.

From a bigger-picture perspective:

• 24/7 Wall St. notes Palantir is up around 140%+ year to date and has gained roughly 1,800%+ since going public in 2020, making it one of the era’s standout AI names. ^[3]
• LeverageShares has previously highlighted Palantir as the top‑performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2024, with gains of over 300% that year as AI and defense enthusiasm exploded. ^[4]

Put simply: PLTR is already a momentum monster, so any new contract or forecast can move the stock quickly – in either direction.

The Big Catalyst: U.S. Navy “ShipOS” Deal Worth Up to $448 Million

The headline driver today is a major U.S. Navy partnership.

What the contract actually is

A BusinessWire press release from Palantir and the U.S. Navy announced “ShipOS,” a program that will deploy Palantir Foundry and AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) across the Maritime Industrial Base – the network of shipyards, submarine builders, and suppliers that maintain and build the Navy’s fleet. ^[5]

Key details:

• The initiative authorizes up to $448 million in funding for AI and autonomy technologies. ^[6]
• ShipOS will ingest data from ERP systems, legacy databases, and operational sources to identify bottlenecks, streamline engineering workflows, and improve production planning in real time. ^[7]
• Initial deployment targets two major shipbuilders, three public shipyards, and 100 suppliers across the maritime industrial base. ^[8]

Investing.com separately described the arrangement as a roughly $446 million contract focused on submarine production and maintenance, underscoring its scale within the Navy’s submarine industrial base. ^[9]

Why the Navy cares – and why investors do too

In pilot deployments cited by the Navy:

• Schedule planning for submarines at General Dynamics Electric Boat reportedly fell from about 160 manual hours to under 10 minutes, and
• Material review times at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard dropped from weeks to under an hour. ^[10]

Those kinds of gains are exactly what Palantir bulls point to when they argue that AI plus data integration can justify premium pricing – and premium stock valuations.

Tokenist framed the announcement as a major AI maintenance and logistics deal for the Navy’s submarine fleet, noting that Palantir shares jumped sharply in premarket trading on December 10 after the news hit wires. ^[11]

Other coverage (including Investors Business Daily and WSJ via StockAnalysis’ news feed) has suggested this ShipOS contract could rival or even surpass Palantir’s Project Maven work in strategic importance, reinforcing PLTR’s central role in U.S. defense AI. ^[12]

More Deal and Product News in the Background

Today’s action doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The Navy contract lands on top of a broader stream of Palantir announcements:

• In the same BusinessWire feed, Palantir recently unveiled “Chain Reaction,” pitched as an operating system for American AI infrastructure – software designed to coordinate power and compute for the massive AI data center build‑out, in partnership with utilities and energy players like CenterPoint and NVIDIA. ^[13]
• Palantir also announced it has achieved IRAP PROTECTED certification in Australia, expanding its ability to serve Australian government and critical infrastructure customers that require stringent security standards. ^[14]
• Axios today highlighted Palantir’s partnership with L3Harris in night‑vision production, showing how Palantir’s data and modeling tools are being used to boost U.S. manufacturing productivity in defense supply chains. ^[15]

Taken together, the story is not just one Navy contract – it’s a pattern of deepening defense, energy, and industrial AI deployments.

Fresh Commentary: What Analysts and Media Said on December 10

Today brought a flood of new analysis on Palantir stock from both bullish and cautious voices.

24/7 Wall St: Big growth, big contracts, big valuation worries

24/7 Wall St. published multiple pieces in recent days:

1. “Palantir Crushes 63% Growth While UiPath Celebrates Its First Profit” (Dec 7)
   • Q3 revenue: $1.18 billion, beating estimates by about $89 million.
   • Revenue growth: 63% year over year.
   • U.S. commercial revenue: up 121% to $397 million.
   • Government revenue: up 52% to $486 million.
   • Contract value closed: $2.76 billion, up 151%.
   • Adjusted operating margin: ~51%.
   • Cash: about $6.4 billion; net income around $477 million. ^[16]
   The article argued these metrics justify Palantir’s premium business profile, but also pointed out a massive valuation gap vs. peers (they cite a triple‑digit price‑to‑sales ratio and a forward P/E over 200). ^[17]
2. “Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030” (Dec 8)
   • Notes PLTR is up over 141% in 2025 and about 150.8% over the last year.
   • Summarizes analyst consensus: median one‑year Wall Street target around $187.87, implying only low‑single‑digit upside from current levels, with a consensus “Hold” rating and a wide target range. ^[18]
   • 24/7’s own model is bearish for the next few years:
     • 2025 price target: $120 (roughly 34% downside).
     • Targets gradually rise to $192 by 2030, only about 5–6% above today’s price. ^[19]
3. “Stock Price Prediction for 2025: Where Will It Be in 1 Year?” (Dec 10)
   • Reiterates the 142%+ year‑to‑date run.
   • Recaps Q3 beat: $0.21 EPS vs $0.17 expected, revenue $1.18B vs $1.09B consensus; government sales up 52% YoY. ^[20]
   • Highlights major deals with the U.S. Army (10‑year, $10B consolidation), ICE, NATO, and U.K. defense. ^[21]
   • Flags extreme valuation: forward P/E near 180+, wide analyst target spread (low ~$50, high $255).
   • Sets 24/7’s own one‑year target at $107, implying ~41% downside, on expectations of multiple compression even as revenue grows. ^[22]

Takeaway: 24/7 Wall St. loves the business momentum but thinks the stock price is running far ahead of fundamentals in the next 12 months.

Seeking Alpha: Speculative buy, but not for the faint‑hearted

A new Seeking Alpha article titled “Palantir: A High‑Risk But High‑Reward Future Amid New Deals” labels PLTR a speculative buy: ^[23]

• The author cites the Navy contract and other recent wins as proof that Palantir is capturing critical AI infrastructure roles.
• But they stress that valuation and volatility are major risks, and that even small disappointments in growth or margins could spark large drawdowns.

Motley Fool & Nasdaq: Bulls vs. bears in the AI craze

Several Motley Fool–linked pieces dropped within the last few days:

• Ultra‑bearish angle:
  “2 Popular Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks to Sell Before They Fall 50% and 72% in 2026, According to Wall Street Analysts” singles out Palantir and Intel as names that some analysts believe could plunge over the next year due to stretched valuations relative to earnings estimates. ^[24]
• Bullish angle:
  “Prediction: Palantir Will Soar in 2026” argues the company is entering a “new phase of growth” as fresh government approvals and accelerating commercial demand push its AI platform deeper into real‑world deployment, positioning PLTR for major upside in the next cycle. ^[25]
• Comparative angle:
  “Better AI Stock: Palantir vs. SoundHound AI” concludes that while both are AI plays, Palantir looks more durable due to its entrenched government contracts, rapidly scaling commercial business, and actual profitability, even if its valuation is far richer than smaller peers. ^[26]
• Valuation debate:
  “Think Palantir Stock Is Expensive? This 1 Chart Might Change Your Mind” acknowledges the stock’s immense multiple but argues that when you blend explosive revenue growth, high margins, and contract momentum, the valuation can look more reasonable on a growth‑adjusted basis. ^[27]

Benzinga: Cathie’s trimming, Burry’s shorting – but the tape doesn’t care

Benzinga’s piece “Cathie’s Trimming, Burry’s Shorting — But Palantir Keeps Adding Contracts Like It Didn’t Get The Memo” highlights the disconnect between famous skeptics and price action: ^[28]

• Cathie Wood’s ARK funds have been selling down PLTR, taking profits.
• Michael Burry reportedly holds a put position equivalent to roughly 5 million shares, effectively betting on a decline.
• Yet PLTR is still up about 142% year to date and sits near its 52‑week high around $207, more than triple its 52‑week low near $63. ^[29]
• Benzinga underscores that Q3 revenue grew 60% year over year, U.S. commercial sales doubled, and full‑year guidance was raised – all while new contracts like ShipOS and the Chain Reaction platform extend Palantir’s AI footprint. ^[30]

The message: bears are loud, but the order book and earnings remain very strong.

Forecasts for PLTR: Short Term vs. 2025–2030

Wall Street targets and 24/7’s long‑range model

Pulling together the data:

• 24/7 Wall St., summarizing Wall Street, reports a median 12‑month analyst target around $187–188, very close to the current price. Most analysts rate PLTR a “Hold”, with 3 Buys, 11 Holds, 2 Sells. ^[31]
• The target range is huge:
  • Low: ~$50 (‑70%+ downside)
  • High: $255 (+40%+ upside) ^[32]

24/7’s own forecasts (not Wall Street’s) are even more conservative:

• 1‑year target (Dec 2026): $107 (about 41% downside from today). ^[33]
• 2025–2030 path: price targets of $120 (2025) rising gradually to $192 (2030), implying a long plateau before modest upside by decade’s end, despite revenue growing from roughly $3.5B in 2025 to $8.5B in 2030 and net income topping $2B. ^[34]

In short: fundamentals look strong, but multiple compression is the big fear.

Quant models: CoinCodex short‑term outlook

Algorithmic forecasts from CoinCodex currently predict a mild near‑term pullback: ^[35]

• For December 11, 2025, their model expects PLTR around $181.84, roughly 3.2% below today’s price.
• Over the next few days, they see a gradual recovery, but still projecting prices only slightly higher than today on a multi‑day horizon.

These models are purely quantitative and heavily dependent on recent price action, so they’re best viewed as volatility gauges, not precise roadmaps.

Options market: implied move into Friday

From options‑market data summarized by OptionCharts, contracts expiring December 12, 2025 imply roughly a mid‑single‑digit percentage move up or down into the end of the week – on the order of about ±4% (around $7–8 per share) from current levels. ^[36]

That’s consistent with what you’d expect from:

• A high‑beta, AI‑themed stock
• Coming off a big contract announcement
• With valuations that can magnify reactions to any new headline

How Stretched Is Palantir’s Valuation Now?

This is where almost every analysis converges.

P/E and market cap

Recent valuation snapshots show:

• Palantir’s trailing P/E (TTM) is in the 400+ range, according to CompaniesMarketCap and GuruFocus, depending on exact share price and EPS used. ^[37]
• YCharts and Yahoo Finance put market capitalization around $430–450 billion as of December 10, 2025. ^[38]

By contrast:

• The S&P 500’s trailing P/E sits around 27–29, with forward P/E estimates near 23–24 – already high by historical standards. ^[39]

So, on a simple earnings multiple basis, Palantir trades at well over 10× the market’s P/E.

24/7’s Q3 recap also notes:

• Forward P/E: around the low 200s
• Rule‑of‑40: about 114, extraordinarily high, reflecting the combination of 60%+ growth and high margins
• A triple‑digit price‑to‑sales ratio vs. teens or single‑digits for many software peers. ^[40]

That’s why you see such polarized coverage:

• Some commentators and analysts say the stock is priced for perfection and could fall 50–70% if growth slows or sentiment rotates out of AI. ^[41]
• Others argue Palantir’s mix of growth, profitability, and mission‑critical contracts is genuinely rare, and that traditional multiples understate future earnings power. ^[42]

Institutions, Hedge Funds, and the S&P 500 Effect

Index inclusion and long‑only demand

Palantir joined the S&P 500 index on September 23, 2024, replacing American Airlines, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. ^[43]

This matters because:

• It forces index funds and closet indexers to own the stock.
• It can reduce free float and fuel squeezes during upbeat periods.
• It cements PLTR as a core AI benchmark in many portfolios.

LeverageShares later highlighted Palantir’s 300%+ gain in 2024 and its status as a top‑performing S&P 500 constituent amid the AI boom. ^[44]

Institutional flows

A MarketBeat report today noted that NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its PLTR stake by 9.1% in Q2, to about 471,168 shares worth roughly $64.2 million at the time. It also pointed out that Vanguard, Truist, and state pension funds have recently raised their holdings, and that about 45.7% of PLTR shares are held by institutional investors overall. ^[45]

At the same time:

• 24/7 and other coverage note that some large institutions (e.g., JPMorgan, T. Rowe Price) have trimmed their positions, suggesting mixed professional sentiment. ^[46]
• Benzinga’s piece about Cathie Wood selling and Michael Burry’s put position highlights that high‑profile managers can be actively bearish even as the stock rallies. ^[47]

Net effect: ownership is broad and increasingly index‑driven, but not universally bullish.

Macro Backdrop: AI Hype Meets Fed Easing

On the same day Palantir jumped:

• The Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate, boosting major U.S. stock indices; the S&P 500 rose about 0.7%, the Dow 1%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. ^[48]
• Reuters highlighted concerns that AI is “masking” economic vulnerabilities, with AI‑heavy megacaps making up an outsized share of index gains and valuations, raising the risk of a sharper correction if AI enthusiasm cools. ^[49]

Palantir sits right at the intersection of those themes:

• It’s an AI infrastructure winner in a world obsessed with AI.
• It’s deeply tied to defense and government spending, which often remains resilient even in slower growth environments.
• But it also embodies the risk of AI overvaluation the macro commentators are warning about.

Key Things to Watch Before the December 11, 2025 Market Open

For traders and investors heading into tomorrow’s session, here are the main issues to monitor:

1. Premarket reaction to the Navy news
   • After‑hours trading was relatively calm (down ~0.2% from the close). ^[50]
   • Watch whether premarket volume shows follow‑through buying on the ShipOS deal – or whether early strength fizzles into “sell the news” profit‑taking.
2. Clarifications on revenue recognition and margin impact
   • The ShipOS initiative is “authorized up to” $448 million, which means actual revenue timing and amounts will depend on task orders and milestones. ^[51]
   • Any management commentary (from Palantir or the Navy) on how quickly revenue ramps, what margin profile ShipOS carries, and how it fits into backlog could drive the next leg of the move.
3. Follow‑up on Chain Reaction and international expansion
   • Additional details or customer announcements around Chain Reaction (AI infrastructure OS) and IRAP‑enabled Australian deals could reinforce the narrative that Palantir is broadening beyond defense into energy and international government work. ^[52]
4. Short‑term technical and options dynamics
   • Recent trading shows support in the mid‑170s / low‑180s and resistance near the $200–207 zone, which was the early November high. ^[53]
   • With options implying about a ±4% move into Friday, don’t be surprised by large intraday swings around headlines or analyst notes. ^[54]
5. New analyst notes or rating changes
   • Given today’s contract win and the valuation debate, expect fresh analyst commentary, either:
     • Hiking price targets and reinforcing the “AI infrastructure champion” thesis, or
     • Doubling down on the overvaluation and downside risk narrative highlighted by 24/7 and Motley Fool’s bearish pieces. ^[55]
6. Macro data and Fed commentary
   • Any additional signals on future rate cuts or changes in AI‑related spending could impact high‑multiple names like Palantir disproportionately. ^[56]

Bottom Line: High‑Conviction Business, High‑Risk Stock

As of the close on December 10, 2025, here’s the distilled message:

• Fundamentals: Palantir is growing revenue north of 60%, with 121% U.S. commercial growth, 52% government growth, high margins, and a stack of long‑term government and enterprise contracts. ^[57]
• Catalysts: The ShipOS Navy contract, the Chain Reaction platform, and international certifications/partnerships reinforce its status as core AI infrastructure for defense, energy, and manufacturing. ^[58]
• Valuation: With a P/E multiple in the 400s, a huge price‑to‑sales ratio, and a market cap in the mid‑hundreds of billions, PLTR is priced like a hyper‑growth, near‑monopoly AI platform – leaving very little margin for error. ^[59]
• Sentiment: Wall Street is sharply split – some see 50–70% downside risk, others see multi‑year upside and potential trillion‑dollar territory if Palantir keeps executing. ^[60]

For short‑term traders, tomorrow’s open will likely hinge on whether buyers still chase the Navy contract or choose to lock in gains after a huge year.

For long‑term investors, the core question remains:

Can Palantir’s earnings and cash flow eventually grow fast enough to “grow into” its valuation – or will multiples compress before the fundamentals catch up?

As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Before making any investment decision in Palantir or any other stock, consider your risk tolerance, time horizon, diversification, and independent research.

References

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